Viscoelastic properties of green wood across the grain measured by harmonic tests in the range of 0\degree C to 95\degree C. Hardwood vs. softwood and normal wood vs. reaction wood

The viscoelastic properties of wood have been investigated with a dynamic mechanical analyser (DMA) specifically conceived for wooden materials, the WAVET device (environmental vibration analyser for wood). Measurements were carried out on four wood species in the temperature range of 0\degree C to 100\degree C at frequencies varying between 5 mHz and 10 Hz. Wood samples were tested in water-saturated conditions, in radial and tangential directions. As expected, the radial direction always revealed a higher storage modulus than the tangential direction. Great differences were also observed in the loss factor. The tan\delta peak and the internal friction are higher in tangential direction than in radial direction. This behaviour is attributed to the fact that anatomical elements act depending on the direction. Viscoelastic behaviour of reaction wood differs from that of normal or opposite wood. Compression wood of spruce, which has higher lignin content, is denser and stiffer in transverse directions than normal wood, and has lower softening temperature (Tg). In tension wood, the G-layer is weakly attached to the rest of the wall layers. This may explain why the storage modulus and the softening temperature of tension wood are lower than those for the opposite wood. In this work, we also point out that the time-temperature equivalence fits only around the transition region, i.e. between Tg and Tg + 30\degree C. Apart from these regions, the wood response combines the effect of all constitutive polymers, so that the equivalence is not valid anymore

Impact of realistic communications for fast-acting demand side management

The rising penetration of intermittent energy resources is increasing the need for more diverse electrical energy resources that are able to support ancillary services. Demand side management (DSM) has a significant potential to fulfil this role but several challenges are still impeding the wide-scale integration of DSM. One of the major challenges is ensuring the performance of the networks that enable communications between control centres and the end DSM resources. This paper presents an analysis of all communications networks that typically participate in the activation of DSM, and provides an estimate for the overall latency that these networks incur. The most significant sources of delay from each of the components of the communications network are identified which allows the most critical aspects to be determined. This analysis therefore offers a detailed evaluation of the performance of DSM resources in the scope of providing real-time ancillary services. It is shown that, using available communications technologies, DSM can be used to provide primary frequency support services. In some cases, Neighbourhood Area Networks (NANs) may add significant delay, requiring careful choice of the technologies deployed

Dimensionless cosmology

Although it is well known that any consideration of the variations of fundamental constants should be restricted to their dimensionless combinations, the literature on variations of the gravitational constant $G$ is entirely dimensionful. To illustrate applications of this to cosmology, we explicitly give a dimensionless version of the parameters of the standard cosmological model, and describe the physics of Big Bang Neucleosynthesis and recombination in a dimensionless manner. The issue that appears to have been missed in many studies is that in cosmology the strength of gravity is bound up in the cosmological equations, and the epoch at which we live is a crucial part of the model. We argue that it is useful to consider the hypothetical situation of communicating with another civilization (with entirely different units), comparing only dimensionless constants, in order to decide if we live in a Universe governed by precisely the same physical laws. In this thought experiment, we would also have to compare epochs, which can be defined by giving the value of any {\it one} of the evolving cosmological parameters. By setting things up carefully in this way one can avoid inconsistent results when considering variable constants, caused by effectively fixing more than one parameter today. We show examples of this effect by considering microwave background anisotropies, being careful to maintain dimensionlessness throughout. We present Fisher matrix calculations to estimate how well the fine structure constants for electromagnetism and gravity can be determined with future microwave background experiments. We highlight how one can be misled by simply adding $G$ to the usual cosmological parameter set

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2,3,4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990�2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk�outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk�outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk�outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95 uncertainty interval UI 9·51�12·1) deaths (19·2% 16·9�21·3 of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12�9·31) deaths (15·4% 14·6�16·2 of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253�350) DALYs (11·6% 10·3�13·1 of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0�9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10�24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25�49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50�74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Effects of agricultural land use on sediment and nutrient retention in valley-bottom wetlands of Migina catchment, southern Rwanda

Factors affecting the retention and export of water, sediments (TSS), nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) were examined in the Migina river catchment, southern Rwanda from May 2012 to May 2013. Landscape characteristics and seasonal changes in land use and land cover (LULC), rainfall, discharge, and area-specific net stream yields of TSS, TP and TN were measured monthly in 16 reaches of the Munyazi sub-catchment with five valley bottom LULC categories (grass/forest, ponds/reservoirs, ploughed, rice, and vegetables). Valley bottoms dominated by grass/forest and ponds/reservoir types were generally associated with positive net yields of nutrients and sediments, while those with agricultural land covers had a net negative yields, resulting in net export. Water was retained only in reaches with ponds/reservoirs. Seasonally, there was a strong relationship between net yield and discharge, with 93%, 60% and 67% of the annual TSS, TP and TN yields, respectively, transported during 115 days with rain. During low flow periods, all LULC types had positive net yields of TSS, TP and TN (suggesting retention), but during high flow periods had negative net yields (suggesting export). Significant effects of hillside land use on sediment and nutrient yields were also found. Stream and river water quality in Rwandan valley bottoms are at risk of further deterioration due to declining natural ecosystems (grassland and forest) and increasing agricultural and urban development. It is important to adopt appropriate land management practices (minimal tillage, optimization of water use, strategic implementation of retention ponds and vegetation buffer zones) to intercept TSS, TP and TN in runoff from storm water and agricultural areas. Special attention is needed for critical periods of the year when farming activities (e.g. land preparation, fertilizer application) coincide with high flow events

Effects of agricultural land use on sediment and nutrient retention in valley-bottom wetlands of Migina catchment, southern Rwanda

Factors affecting the retention and export of water, sediments (TSS), nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) were examined in the Migina river catchment, southern Rwanda from May 2012 to May 2013. Landscape characteristics and seasonal changes in land use and land cover (LULC), rainfall, discharge, and area-specific net stream yields of TSS, TP and TN were measured monthly in 16 reaches of the Munyazi sub-catchment with five valley bottom LULC categories (grass/forest, ponds/reservoirs, ploughed, rice, and vegetables). Valley bottoms dominated by grass/forest and ponds/reservoir types were generally associated with positive net yields of nutrients and sediments, while those with agricultural land covers had a net negative yields, resulting in net export. Water was retained only in reaches with ponds/reservoirs. Seasonally, there was a strong relationship between net yield and discharge, with 93%, 60% and 67% of the annual TSS, TP and TN yields, respectively, transported during 115 days with rain. During low flow periods, all LULC types had positive net yields of TSS, TP and TN (suggesting retention), but during high flow periods had negative net yields (suggesting export). Significant effects of hillside land use on sediment and nutrient yields were also found. Stream and river water quality in Rwandan valley bottoms are at risk of further deterioration due to declining natural ecosystems (grassland and forest) and increasing agricultural and urban development. It is important to adopt appropriate land management practices (minimal tillage, optimization of water use, strategic implementation of retention ponds and vegetation buffer zones) to intercept TSS, TP and TN in runoff from storm water and agricultural areas. Special attention is needed for critical periods of the year when farming activities (e.g. land preparation, fertilizer application) coincide with high flow events