Characterizing temporary hydrological regimes at a European scale

Monthly duration curves have been constructed from climate data across Europe to help address the relative frequency of ecologically critical low flow stages in temporary rivers, when flow persists only in disconnected pools in the river bed. The hydrological model is 5 based on a partitioning of precipitation to estimate water available for evapotranspiration and plant growth and for residual runoff. The duration curve for monthly flows has then been analysed to give an estimate of bankfull flow based on recurrence interval. The corresponding frequency for pools is then based on the ratio of bank full discharge to pool flow, arguing from observed ratios of cross-sectional areas at flood 10 and low flows to estimate pool flow as 0.1% of bankfull flow, and so estimate the frequency of the pool conditions that constrain survival of river-dwelling arthropods and fish. The methodology has been applied across Europe at 15 km resolution, and can equally be applied under future climatic scenarios

Responses of intertidal invertebrates to rising sea surface temperatures in the southeastern Indian Ocean

Introduction: The west coast of Western Australia (WA) is a global hotspot for increasing sea surface temperatures and marine heatwaves. Methods: We used visual survey transects to compare mollusc and echinoderm populations on three coastal intertidal platform reefs on the Perth shoreline with two intertidal platforms at the west end of Rottnest Island (32°S) which are under the influence of the southward flowing Leeuwin Current. Results: In 1983, temperate species dominated Perth coastal molluscan diversity, but the tropical mussel Brachidontes sculptus dominated density. Species richness on coastal platforms remained constant in 2007 and 2021, but total densities were lower in 2007 as B. sculptus declined; partial recovery occurred on coastal platforms in 2021. Tropical species were a significant component of mollusc diversity and density at Rottnest Island in 1982 and 2007. Total mollusc density declined by 98% at the island sites of Radar Reef and 86% at Cape Vlamingh and total echinoderm density by 52% and 88% respectively from 2007 to 2021; species diversity also declined sharply. Discussion: Tropical species have moved southward in WA subtidal environments, but tropical, temperate and WA endemic species all suffered losses of biodiversity and catastrophic declines in density of 90% or more on the two Rottnest Island intertidal platforms. Data presented here provide a sound basis for exploring the possible causes of the catastrophic mortality at the west end of Rottnest Island and monitoring for recovery

Marine benthic flora and fauna of Gourdon Bay and the Dampier Peninsula in the Kimberley region of North-Western Australia

Surveys undertaken to characterise the marine benthic habitats along the Dampier Peninsula and further south at Gourdon Bay in the Kimberley region of Western Australia were augmented with epibenthic sled sampling of soft and hard bottom habitats. This paper describes the species collected, their biomass and relative abundance for the main groups of marine macrophytes and invertebrates. Five localities were surveyed; Gourdon Bay, Quondong Point to Coulomb Point, Carnot Bay to Beagle Bay, Perpendicular Head and Packer Island. Sampling was limited to fifteen epibenthic dredge operations from a range of habitat types and was designed to target the most common habitat types and to obtain species identifications of the most important species and those which typified different habitat types. Surveys covered a total of 1,350 m 2 of seabed in depths between 11 and 23m. We identified 415 taxa comprising: 1 seagrass, 43 algae, 52 sponges, 30 ascidians, 10 hydroids, 14 scleractinian corals, 52 other cnidarians, 69 crustaceans, 73 molluscs and 71 echinoderms. Despite the limited nature of the sampling, a significant number of new species, range extensions and new records for Western Australia and Australia were recorded. Within the algae, one range extension (Halimeda cf. cuneata f. digitata not previously recorded in Western Australia) and one possible new species of Areschougia were recorded. Two range extensions were present in the ascidians; the solitary ascidian Polycarpa cf. intonata has previously only been recorded in Queensland and Cnemidocarpa cf. radicosa only in temperate Australian waters. There were several range extensions for the crustacea, for example, the sponge crab, Tumidodromia dormia, has only been recorded in Queensland. One species of holothurian of the genus Phyllophorus could not be identified from the literature available and may represent a new species. Similarly, a small species of the echinoid Gymnechinus could possibly be a new species. The collections of hydroids, hard corals, crinoids and molluscs contained no new species or range extensions. There was difficulty in identification of some groups to species level due to the status of the current taxonomic literature (e.g. Cnidaria, Porifera and ascidians) and there may be a number of new species among the material collected. Among the anthozoa, there is at least one new species of Chromonephthea and potentially 10 range extensions to Western Australia. Sinularia cf. acuta and Chromonephthea curvata are both new records for Australia with both previously recorded in Indonesia only. Among the better known taxa (e.g. molluscs, echinoderms, corals), most of the taxa identified to species level have been recorded to occur throughout north-western Australia, however the diversity recorded in this study is less than other parts of the Kimberley and this is almost certainly a result of the small overall area sampled and the single method of collection utilised. The most important species on soft bottom habitats in terms of biomass was the heart urchin Breynia desorii (up to 326 g.m -2). Sponges were the dominant fauna by biomass (up to 620 g.m -2) on hard bottom habitats and biomass was dominated a by a few large cup and massive sponge species (e.g. Pione velans and two unidentified Spheciospongia). The biomass of other filter feeders, especially ascidians (e.g. Aplidium cf. crateriferum), soft corals (e.g. Chromonephthea spp.), gorgonians (e.g. Junceella fragilis and Dichotella gemmacea) was also high, indicating the importance of these groups in characterising hard bottom habitats. Although low in biomass, crinoids such as Comaster multifidus and Comatula pectinata were abundant in samples that included a high biomass of other filter feeders

The Theory of Brown Dwarfs and Extrasolar Giant Planets

Straddling the traditional realms of the planets and the stars, objects below the edge of the main sequence have such unique properties, and are being discovered in such quantities, that one can rightly claim that a new field at the interface of planetary science and and astronomy is being born. In this review, we explore the essential elements of the theory of brown dwarfs and giant planets, as well as of the new spectroscopic classes L and T. To this end, we describe their evolution, spectra, atmospheric compositions, chemistry, physics, and nuclear phases and explain the basic systematics of substellar-mass objects across three orders of magnitude in both mass and age and a factor of 30 in effective temperature. Moreover, we discuss the distinctive features of those extrasolar giant planets that are irradiated by a central primary, in particular their reflection spectra, albedos, and transits. Aspects of the latest theory of Jupiter and Saturn are also presented. Throughout, we highlight the effects of condensates, clouds, molecular abundances, and molecular/atomic opacities in brown dwarf and giant planet atmospheres and summarize the resulting spectral diagnostics. Where possible, the theory is put in its current observational context.Comment: 67 pages (including 36 figures), RMP RevTeX LaTeX, accepted for publication in the Reviews of Modern Physics. 30 figures are color. Most of the figures are in GIF format to reduce the overall size. The full version with figures can also be found at: http://jupiter.as.arizona.edu/~burrows/papers/rm

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990�2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk�outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk�outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk�outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95 uncertainty interval UI 9·51�12·1) deaths (19·2% 16·9�21·3 of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12�9·31) deaths (15·4% 14·6�16·2 of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253�350) DALYs (11·6% 10·3�13·1 of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0�9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10�24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25�49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50�74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Enhanced attentional bias towards sexually explicit cues in individuals with and without compulsive sexual behaviours

Compulsive sexual behaviour (CSB) is relatively common and has been associated with significant distress and psychosocial impairments. CSB has been conceptualized as either an impulse control disorder or a non-substance ‘behavioural’ addiction. Substance use disorders are commonly associated with attentional biases to drug cues which are believed to reflect processes of incentive salience. Here we assess male CSB subjects compared to age-matched male healthy controls using a dot probe task to assess attentional bias to sexually explicit cues. We show that compared to healthy volunteers, CSB subjects have enhanced attentional bias to explicit cues but not neutral cues particularly for early stimuli latency. Our findings suggest enhanced attentional bias to explicit cues possibly related to an early orienting attentional response. This finding dovetails with our recent observation that sexually explicit videos were associated with greater activity in a neural network similar to that observed in drug-cue-reactivity studies. Greater desire or wanting rather than liking was further associated with activity in this neural network. These studies together provide support for an incentive motivation theory of addiction underlying the aberrant response towards sexual cues in CSB