A simple framework for assessing the trade-off between the climate impact of aviation carbon dioxide emissions and contrails for a single flight

Persistent contrails are an important climate impact of aviation which could potentially be reduced by re-routing aircraft to avoid contrailing; however this generally increases both the flight length and its corresponding CO emissions. Here, we provide a simple framework to assess the trade-off between the climate impact of CO emissions and contrails for a single flight, in terms of the absolute global warming potential and absolute global temperature potential metrics for time horizons of 20, 50 and 100 years. We use the framework to illustrate the maximum extra distance (with no altitude changes) that can be added to a flight and still reduce its overall climate impact. Small aircraft can fly up to four times further to avoid contrailing than large aircraft. The results have a strong dependence on the applied metric and time horizon. Applying a conservative estimate of the uncertainty in the contrail radiative forcing and climate efficacy leads to a factor of 20 difference in the maximum extra distance that could be flown to avoid a contrail. The impact of re-routing on other climatically-important aviation emissions could also be considered in this framework

Characterizing temporary hydrological regimes at a European scale

Monthly duration curves have been constructed from climate data across Europe to help address the relative frequency of ecologically critical low flow stages in temporary rivers, when flow persists only in disconnected pools in the river bed. The hydrological model is 5 based on a partitioning of precipitation to estimate water available for evapotranspiration and plant growth and for residual runoff. The duration curve for monthly flows has then been analysed to give an estimate of bankfull flow based on recurrence interval. The corresponding frequency for pools is then based on the ratio of bank full discharge to pool flow, arguing from observed ratios of cross-sectional areas at flood 10 and low flows to estimate pool flow as 0.1% of bankfull flow, and so estimate the frequency of the pool conditions that constrain survival of river-dwelling arthropods and fish. The methodology has been applied across Europe at 15 km resolution, and can equally be applied under future climatic scenarios

The Theory of Brown Dwarfs and Extrasolar Giant Planets

Straddling the traditional realms of the planets and the stars, objects below the edge of the main sequence have such unique properties, and are being discovered in such quantities, that one can rightly claim that a new field at the interface of planetary science and and astronomy is being born. In this review, we explore the essential elements of the theory of brown dwarfs and giant planets, as well as of the new spectroscopic classes L and T. To this end, we describe their evolution, spectra, atmospheric compositions, chemistry, physics, and nuclear phases and explain the basic systematics of substellar-mass objects across three orders of magnitude in both mass and age and a factor of 30 in effective temperature. Moreover, we discuss the distinctive features of those extrasolar giant planets that are irradiated by a central primary, in particular their reflection spectra, albedos, and transits. Aspects of the latest theory of Jupiter and Saturn are also presented. Throughout, we highlight the effects of condensates, clouds, molecular abundances, and molecular/atomic opacities in brown dwarf and giant planet atmospheres and summarize the resulting spectral diagnostics. Where possible, the theory is put in its current observational context.Comment: 67 pages (including 36 figures), RMP RevTeX LaTeX, accepted for publication in the Reviews of Modern Physics. 30 figures are color. Most of the figures are in GIF format to reduce the overall size. The full version with figures can also be found at: http://jupiter.as.arizona.edu/~burrows/papers/rm

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990�2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk�outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk�outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk�outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95 uncertainty interval UI 9·51�12·1) deaths (19·2% 16·9�21·3 of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12�9·31) deaths (15·4% 14·6�16·2 of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253�350) DALYs (11·6% 10·3�13·1 of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0�9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10�24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25�49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50�74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Finite strain theories and comparisons with seismological data

All the finite strain equations that we are aware of that are worth considering in connection with the interior of the Earth are given, with the assumptions on which they are based and corresponding relationships for incompressibility and its pressure derivatives in terms of density. In several cases, equations which have been presented as new or independent are shown to be particular examples of more general equations that are already familiar. Relationships for deriving finite strain equations from atomic potential functions or vice versa are given and, in particular it is pointed out that the Birch-Murnaghan formulation implies a sum of power law potentials with even powers. All the equations that survive simple plausibility tests are fitted to the lower mantle and outer core data for the PEM earth model. For this purpose the model data are extrapolated to zero temperature, using the Mie-Grüneisen equation to subtract the thermal pressure (at fixed density) and the pressure derivative of this equation to substract the thermal component of incompressibility. Fitting of finite strain equations to such zero temperature data is less ambiguous than fitting raw earth model data and leads immediately to estimates of the low temperature zero pressure parameters of earth materials. On this basis, using the best fitting equations and constraining core temperature to give an extrapolated incompressibility K0=1.6×1011Pa, compatible with a plausible iron alloy, the following numerical data are obtained: Core-mantle boundary temperature 3770 K Zero pressure, zero temperature densities: lower mantle 4190 kg m-3 outer core (solidified) 7500 kg m-3 Zero pressure, zero temperature incompressibility of the lower mantle 2.36×1011Pa However, an inconsistency is apparent between P(ρ{variant}) and K(ρ{variant}) data, indicating that, even in the PEM model, in which the lower mantle is represented by a single set of parameters, it is not perfectly homogeneous with respect to composition and phase

Reducing sediment inputs to Scottish streams: a review of the efficacy of soil conservation practices in upland forestry

The historical process by which a soil conservation strategy has evolved within the UK forestry industry is briefly reviewed. Particular attention is given to the development of practical and effective guidelines to prevent both soil damage and sediment entering water courses. It is concluded that the ‘Forest and Water Guidelines’, together with other forest industry manuals, largely provide adequate protection for aquatic habitats from pre-afforestation cultivation and from harvesting activities. The problem of soil erosion owing to ploughing of open furrows has largely been obviated by improved drainage network design coupled with the use of vegetated buffer strips and sediment catchpits. Alternative site preparation techniques, such as ‘moling’ or ‘dolloping’ of afforestation sites, are now preferred. However, the effects on slope hydrology and the improved soil conservation associated with these methods require quantifying. Additional understanding of effective buffer strip function, for example, on a variety of slope angles, soil types and vegetation associations would be beneficial. The design of forest roads and the associated network of drains, culverts and sediment catchpits is addressed in forestry guidelines. Future potential in this area may involve the use of Geographical Information Systems in the effective design of road networks which minimise adverse effects on slope hydrology. Similarly computer simulation of flow routing might aid in the design of road drain networks. At the more local scale there remains scope for further research aimed at minimising soil disturbance by machinery. Consideration should also be given to the long-term sustainability of the soil structure through second and subsequent crop rotations. <br/