Governing the invisible commons: Ozone regulation and the Montreal Protocol

The Montreal Protocol is generally credited as a successful example of international cooperation in response to a global environmental problem. As a result, the production and consumption of ozone-depleting substances has declined rapidly, and it is expected that atmospheric ozone concentrations will return to their normal ranges toward the end of this century. This paper applies the social-ecological system framework and common-pool resource theory to explore the congruence between successful resolution of small-scale appropriation problems and ozone regulation, a large-scale pollution problem. The results of our analysis correspond closely to past studies of the Protocol that highlight the importance of attributes such as a limited number of major industrial producers, advances in scientific knowledge, and the availability of technological substitutes. However, in contrast to previous theoretical accounts that focus on one or a few variables, our analysis suggests that its success may have been the result of interactions between a wider range of SES attributes, many of which are associated with successful small-scale environmental governance. Although carefully noting the limitations of drawing conclusions from the analysis of a single case, our analysis reveals the potential for fruitful interplay between common-pool resource theory and large-scale pollution problems

Potential International Spread of Multidrug-Resistant Invasive Salmonella enterica Serovar Enteritidis

In developing countries, Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis causes substantial illness and death, and drug resistance is increasing. Isolates from the United Kingdom containing virulence-resistance plasmids were characterized. They mainly caused invasive infections in adults linked to Africa. The common features in isolates from these continents indicate the role of human travel in their spread

The relationship between natural outdoor environments and cognitive functioning and its mediators

Background Urban residents may experience cognitive fatigue and little opportunity for mental restoration due to a lack of access to nature. Natural outdoor environments (NOE) are thought to be beneficial for cognitive functioning, but underlying mechanisms are not clear. Objectives To investigate the long-term association between NOE and cognitive function, and its potential mediators. Methods This cross-sectional study was based on adult participants of the Positive Health Effects of the Natural Outdoor Environment in Typical Populations in Different Regions in Europe (PHENOTYPE) project. Data were collected in Barcelona, Spain; Doetinchem, the Netherlands; and Stoke-on-Trent, United Kingdom. We assessed residential distance to NOE, residential surrounding greenness, perceived amount of neighborhood NOE, and engagement with NOE. Cognitive function was assessed with the Color Trails Test (CTT). Mediation analysis was undertaken following Baron and Kenny. Results Each 100 m increase in residential distance to NOE was associated with a longer CTT completion time of 1.50% (95% CI 0.13, 2.89). No associations were found for other NOE indicators and cognitive function. Neighborhood social cohesion was (marginally) significantly associated with both residential distance to NOE and CTT completion time, but no evidence for mediation was found. Nor were there indications for mediation by physical activity, social interaction with neighbors, loneliness, mental health, air pollution worries, or noise annoyance. Conclusions Our findings provide some indication that proximity to nature may benefit cognitive function. We could not establish which mechanisms may explain this relationship

An inverse association between ovarian cysts and breast cancer in the Breast Cancer Family Registry

Ovarian cysts of several types are common in women of reproductive age. Their etiology is not well understood but is likely related to perturbations in the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis. The relationship of ovarian cysts to breast cancer risk is not known, although a negative association with polycystic ovarian syndrome has been reported. Incident, invasive female breast cancer cases, population-based controls and unaffected sisters of cases were studied from 3 countries participating in the Breast Cancer Family Registry: Melbourne and Sydney, Australia; the San Francisco Bay Area, USA; and Ontario, Canada. Using the same questionnaire, information was collected on self-reported history of ovarian cysts and other risk factors. Analyses were based on 3,049 cases, 2,344 population controls and 1,934 sister controls from all sites combined. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using both unconditional and conditional logistic regression using an offset term to account for sampling fractions at 2 of the sites. A significantly reduced risk of breast cancer was observed for women reporting a history of ovarian cysts (OR 5 0.70, 95% CI 0.59-0.82, among all cases and all controls). This risk estimate was similar regardless of control group used, within all 3 sites and in both premenopausal and postmenopausal women (ORs ranging from 0.68-0.75, all 95% CI excluded 1.00). A self-reported history of ovarian cysts was strongly and consistently associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer. Further study of ovarian cysts may increase our understanding of hormonal and other mechanisms of breast cancer etiology. ' 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc

A network analysis to identify mediators of germline-driven differences in breast cancer prognosis.

Identifying the underlying genetic drivers of the heritability of breast cancer prognosis remains elusive. We adapt a network-based approach to handle underpowered complex datasets to provide new insights into the potential function of germline variants in breast cancer prognosis. This network-based analysis studies ~7.3 million variants in 84,457 breast cancer patients in relation to breast cancer survival and confirms the results on 12,381 independent patients. Aggregating the prognostic effects of genetic variants across multiple genes, we identify four gene modules associated with survival in estrogen receptor (ER)-negative and one in ER-positive disease. The modules show biological enrichment for cancer-related processes such as G-alpha signaling, circadian clock, angiogenesis, and Rho-GTPases in apoptosis

Conservative versus interventional treatment for spontaneous pneumothorax

BACKGROUND: Whether conservative management is an acceptable alternative to interventional management for uncomplicated, moderate-to-large primary spontaneous pneumothorax is unknown. METHODS: In this open-label, multicenter, noninferiority trial, we recruited patients 14 to 50 years of age with a first-known, unilateral, moderate-to-large primary spontaneous pneumothorax. Patients were randomly assigned to immediate interventional management of the pneumothorax (intervention group) or a conservative observational approach (conservative-management group) and were followed for 12 months. The primary outcome was lung reexpansion within 8 weeks. RESULTS: A total of 316 patients underwent randomization (154 patients to the intervention group and 162 to the conservative-management group). In the conservative-management group, 25 patients (15.4%) underwent interventions to manage the pneumothorax, for reasons prespecified in the protocol, and 137 (84.6%) did not undergo interventions. In a complete-case analysis in which data were not available for 23 patients in the intervention group and 37 in the conservative-management group, reexpansion within 8 weeks occurred in 129 of 131 patients (98.5%) with interventional management and in 118 of 125 (94.4%) with conservative management (risk difference, -4.1 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -8.6 to 0.5; P = 0.02 for noninferiority); the lower boundary of the 95% confidence interval was within the prespecified noninferiority margin of -9 percentage points. In a sensitivity analysis in which all missing data after 56 days were imputed as treatment failure (with reexpansion in 129 of 138 patients [93.5%] in the intervention group and in 118 of 143 [82.5%] in the conservative-management group), the risk difference of -11.0 percentage points (95% CI, -18.4 to -3.5) was outside the prespecified noninferiority margin. Conservative management resulted in a lower risk of serious adverse events or pneumothorax recurrence than interventional management. CONCLUSIONS: Although the primary outcome was not statistically robust to conservative assumptions about missing data, the trial provides modest evidence that conservative management of primary spontaneous pneumothorax was noninferior to interventional management, with a lower risk of serious adverse events. (Funded by the Emergency Medicine Foundation and others; PSP Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number, ACTRN12611000184976.)

Accuracy of Risk Estimates from the iPrevent Breast Cancer Risk Assessment and Management Tool.

BACKGROUND: iPrevent is an online breast cancer (BC) risk management decision support tool. It uses an internal switching algorithm, based on a woman's risk factor data, to estimate her absolute BC risk using either the International Breast Cancer Intervention Study (IBIS) version 7.02, or Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm version 3 models, and then provides tailored risk management information. This study assessed the accuracy of the 10-year risk estimates using prospective data. METHODS: iPrevent-assigned 10-year invasive BC risk was calculated for 15 732 women aged 20-70 years and without BC at recruitment to the Prospective Family Study Cohort. Calibration, the ratio of the expected (E) number of BCs to the observed (O) number and discriminatory accuracy were assessed. RESULTS: During the 10 years of follow-up, 619 women (3.9%) developed BC compared with 702 expected (E/O = 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI] =1.05 to 1.23). For women younger than 50 years, 50 years and older, and BRCA1/2-mutation carriers and noncarriers, E/O was 1.04 (95% CI = 0.93 to 1.16), 1.24 (95% CI = 1.11 to 1.39), 1.13 (95% CI = 0.96 to 1.34), and 1.13 (95% CI = 1.04 to 1.24), respectively. The C-statistic was 0.70 (95% CI = 0.68 to 0.73) overall and 0.74 (95% CI = 0.71 to 0.77), 0.63 (95% CI = 0.59 to 0.66), 0.59 (95% CI = 0.53 to 0.64), and 0.65 (95% CI = 0.63 to 0.68), respectively, for the subgroups above. Applying the newer IBIS version 8.0b in the iPrevent switching algorithm improved calibration overall (E/O = 1.06, 95% CI = 0.98 to 1.15) and in all subgroups, without changing discriminatory accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: For 10-year BC risk, iPrevent had good discriminatory accuracy overall and was well calibrated for women aged younger than 50 years. Calibration may be improved in the future by incorporating IBIS version 8.0b