2,954 research outputs found
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Herding effects in order driven markets: The rise and fall of gurus
We introduce an order driver market model with heterogeneous traders that imitate each other on a dynamic network structure. The communication structure evolves endogenously via a fitness mechanism based on agents performance. We assess under which assumptions imitation, among otherway noise traders, can give rise to the emergence of gurus and their rise and fall in popularity over time. We study the wealth distribution of gurus, followers and non followers and show that traders have an incentive to imitate and to be imitated since herding turns out to be profitable
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An Analysis of Settlement Risk Contagion in Alternative Securities Settlement Architecture
This paper compares the so-called gross and net architectures for securities settlement. It studies the settlement risk arising from exogenous operational delays and compares the importance of settlement failures under the two architectures, as a function of the length of the settlement cycle and of different market conditions. Under both architectures, settlement failures are non-monotonically related to the length of settlement cycle. There is no evidence that continuous time settlement provides always higher stability. Gross systems appear to be more stable than net systems
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Information theoretic description of the e-Mid interbank market: implications for systemic risk
We present an empirical analysis of the European electronic interbank market of overnight lending (e-MID) during the years 1999–2009. The main goal of the paper is to explain the observed changes of the cross-sectional dispersion of lending/borrowing conditions before, during and after the 2007–2008 subprime crisis. Unlike previous contributions, that focused on banks’ dependent and macro information as explanatory variables, we address the role of banks’ behaviour and market microstructure as determinants of the credit spreads
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Optimal Trading Strategies in a Limit Order Market with Imperfect Liquidity
We study the optimal execution strategy of selling a security. In a continuous time diffusion framework, a risk-averse trader faces the choice of selling the security promptly or placing a limit order and hence delaying the transaction in order to sell at a more favorable price. We introduce a random delay parameter, which defers limit order execution and characterizes market liquidity. The distribution of expected time-to-fill of limit orders conforms to the empirically observed exponential distribution of trading times, and its variance decreases with liquidity. We obtain a closed-form solution and demonstrate that the presence of the lag factor linearizes the impact of other market parameters on the optimal limit price. Finally, two more stylized facts are rationalized in our model: the equilibrium bid-ask spread decreases with liquidity, but increases with agents risk aversion
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Weighted network analysis of high frequency cross-correlation measures
In this paper we implement a Fourier method to estimate high-frequency correlation matrices from small data sets. The Fourier estimates are shown to be considerably less noisy than the standard Pearson correlation measures and thus capable of detecting subtle changes in correlation matrices with just a month of data. The evolution of correlation at different time scales is analyzed from the full correlation matrix and its minimum spanning tree representation. The analysis is performed by implementing measures from the theory of random weighted networks. © 2007 The American Physical Society
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The Cross-Section of Interbank Rates: A Nonparametric Empirical Investigation
This paper analyzes the distribution of lending and borrowing credit spreads in the European interbank market conditional on main features of banks such as their size, operating currency and nationality. This is done by means of nonparametric kernel estimation methods for the cross-sectional density of interbank funding rates over a large sample of European banks trading in the e-MID market. The analysis is repeated over consecutive non-overlapping periods in order to assess and compare the effect of the factors during crisis and non-crisis periods. We find evidence of important differences between the borrowing and lending segment of the interbank market that are augmented during crises periods. Our results strongly support the existence of a size effect in the borrowing market. Largest banks enjoy the highest lending rates and the lowest borrowing rates. The collapse of Lehman Brothers accentuates the differences in funding conditions. In both borrowing and lending segments, crises are corresponded by high volatilities in daily funding costs. Banks using the Euro currency and in countries not affected by sovereign debt crises are benefited by lower funding costs. Our nonparametric analysis of densities conditional on banks' nationality suggests that distress in the interbank market can serve as an early warning indicator of sovereign risk
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The effects of interbank networks on efficiency and stability in a macroeconomic agent-based model
We develop a macroeconomic agent-based model that consists of firms, banks, unions and households who interact on labour, goods, credit and interbank markets. The model endogenises pricing decisions by firms, wage setting by unions and interest rate setting by banks on both firm and interbank lending. Banks also set leverage targets and precautionary liquidity buffers on the basis of internal risk models. Our model produces endogenous fluctuations driven by the pricing behaviour of firms and the wage setting behaviour of unions. Fluctuations lead to loan defaults which are exacerbated as lenders reduce lending and charge higher interest rates, inducing a credit crunch. We also study how making the inter-banking network more connected affects the key outcomes of the economy and find that while the flow of funds from surplus banks to firms can be increased, the latter effect is soon dominated by increasing instability in the real sector as firms default at higher rates. While the banking sector experiences fewer defaults as a whole, losses on the interbank market increase as a source of bank defaults
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