Dynamic Connectedness of UK Regional Property Prices

In this study we examine the network topology of UK regional property prices using a dynamic measure of connectedness developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) over the period 1973Q4-2014Q4. Our findings suggest that the transmission of inter-regional property returns shocks is an important source of regional property return fluctuations in the UK. The UK regions of South West, Outer South East, East Midlands and Northern Ireland seem to be the dominant transmitters of property returns shocks throughout our sample period. Moreover, the results indicate that regional housing markets in the UK are highly interconnected and extreme-economic-event dependent. In addition, the dynamic framework of our analysis provides further insights regarding the ripple effect, while, emphasis is also placed on the fact that London may also act as a net recipient of shocks from other regions. Findings are important for policy makers purporting to alleviate regional imbalances and achieve balanced growth, as well as, investors who formulate portfolio diversification strategies. Our results exhibit robustness to a series of tests

Spillovers between oil and stock markets at times of geopolitical unrest and economic turbulence

In this study we examine the dynamic structural relationship between oil price shocks and stock market returns and volatility for a sample of both net oil-exporting and net oil-importing countries between 1995:09 and 2013:07. We accomplish that, by extending the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) dynamic spillover index using structural forecast error variance decomposition. The results for both stock market returns and volatility suggest that spillover effects vary across different time periods, and that this time{varying character is aligned with certain developments that take place in the global economy. In particular, aggregate demand shocks appear to act as the main transmitters of spillover effects to stock markets during periods characterised by economic-driven events, while supply-side and oil-specific demand shocks during periods of geopolitical unrest. Furthermore, differences regarding the directions and the strength of spillover effects can be reported both between and within the net oil-importing and net oil-exporting countries. These results are of particular importance to investors and portfolio managers, given the recent financialisation of the oil market

Dynamic Co-movements between Stock Market Returns and Policy Uncertainty

In this paper we examine the extent of time-varying correlations between stock markets returns and policy uncertainty based on a newly introduced uncertainty index by Baker et al. (2012). We identify several empirical regularities: (1) the dynamic correlations of policy uncertainty and stock market returns are consistently negative. (2) Increased stock market volatility increases policy uncertainty and dampens stock markets returns. (3) Increases in the volatility of policy uncertainty lead to negative stock market returns and increased uncertainty. (4) Oil specific demand shocks and domestic shocks (price and income shocks) lead to further increase in the negative correlation between policy uncertainty and stock market returns

Dynamic Connectedness of UK Regional Property Prices

In this study we examine the network topology of UK regional property prices using a dynamic measure of connectedness developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) over the period 1973Q4-2014Q4. Our findings suggest that the transmission of inter-regional property returns shocks is an important source of regional property return fluctuations in the UK. The UK regions of South West, Outer South East, East Midlands and Northern Ireland seem to be the dominant transmitters of property returns shocks throughout our sample period. Moreover, the results indicate that regional housing markets in the UK are highly interconnected and extreme-economic-event dependent. In addition, the dynamic framework of our analysis provides further insights regarding the ripple effect, while, emphasis is also placed on the fact that London may also act as a net recipient of shocks from other regions. Findings are important for policy makers purporting to alleviate regional imbalances and achieve balanced growth, as well as, investors who formulate portfolio diversification strategies. Our results exhibit robustness to a series of tests

A multidisciplinary approach for an effective and rational energy transition in Crete Island, Greece.

This article proposes a mixture of actions for the development of an effective and rational energy transition plan for all sectors and for all types of onshore final energy use in Crete. Energy transition is initiated with an appropriate capacity building campaign. The plan is based on the introduction of energy saving measures and the exploitation of all the locally available energy resources (wind, solar, geothermal potential, biomass), integrated in a cluster of centralized and decentralized power plants and smart grids to produce electricity and heat and for the transition to e-mobility. The core of the energy transition in Crete will be a set of 14 wind parks and Pumped Hydro Storage systems (PHS) for electricity generation and 12 Combined Heat and Power plants, properly designed and dispersed in the insular territory. Economic analysis is executed for the proposed essential power plants on the island. Biomass, solar and geothermal potential can cover the heating demand in Crete several times. Heat can be produced with a specific cost of 0.05 EUR/kWhth from cogeneration plants fired with solid biomass and biogas. The wind parks-PHS systems exhibit payback periods of approximately 10 years with a final electricity selling price at 0.12 EUR/kWhel. The article shows that 100% energy transition in Crete constitutes a feasible target

Chronic Mild Traumatic Brain Injury: Aberrant Static and Dynamic Connectomic Features Identified Through Machine Learning Model Fusion.

peer reviewedTraumatic Brain Injury (TBI) is a frequently occurring condition and approximately 90% of TBI cases are classified as mild (mTBI). However, conventional MRI has limited diagnostic and prognostic value, thus warranting the utilization of additional imaging modalities and analysis procedures. The functional connectomic approach using resting-state functional MRI (rs-fMRI) has shown great potential and promising diagnostic capabilities across multiple clinical scenarios, including mTBI. Additionally, there is increasing recognition of a fundamental role of brain dynamics in healthy and pathological cognition. Here, we undertake an in-depth investigation of mTBI-related connectomic disturbances and their emotional and cognitive correlates. We leveraged machine learning and graph theory to combine static and dynamic functional connectivity (FC) with regional entropy values, achieving classification accuracy up to 75% (77, 74 and 76% precision, sensitivity and specificity, respectively). As compared to healthy controls, the mTBI group displayed hypoconnectivity in the temporal poles, which correlated positively with semantic (r = 0.43, p < 0.008) and phonemic verbal fluency (r = 0.46, p < 0.004), while hypoconnectivity in the right dorsal posterior cingulate correlated positively with depression symptom severity (r = 0.54, p < 0.0006). These results highlight the importance of residual FC in these regions for preserved cognitive and emotional function in mTBI. Conversely, hyperconnectivity was observed in the right precentral and supramarginal gyri, which correlated negatively with semantic verbal fluency (r=-0.47, p < 0.003), indicating a potential ineffective compensatory mechanism. These novel results are promising toward understanding the pathophysiology of mTBI and explaining some of its most lingering emotional and cognitive symptoms

Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions, and Economic Growth: An Ethical Dilemma

In this study we examine the dynamic interrelationship in the output–energy–environment nexus by applying panel vector autoregression (PVAR) and impulse response function analyses to data on energy consumption (and its subcomponents), carbon dioxide emissions and real GDP in 106 countries classified by different income groups over the period 1971–2011. Our results reveal that the effects of the various types of energy consumption on economic growth and emissions are heterogeneous on the various groups of countries. Moreover, causality between total economic growth and energy consumption is bidirectional, thus making a case for the feedback hypothesis. However, we cannot report any statistically significant evidence that renewable energy consumption, in particular, is conducive to economic growth, a fact that weakens the argument that renewable energy consumption is able to promote growth in a more efficient and environmentally sustainable way. Finally, in analysing the case for an inverted U-shaped EKC, we find that the continued process of growth aggravates the greenhouse gas emissions phenomenon. In this regard, we cannot provide any evidence that developed countries may actually grow-out of environmental pollution. In the light of these findings, the efficacy of recent government policies in various countries to promote renewable energy consumption as a means for sustainable growth is questioned. Put differently, there seems to be an ethical dilemma, between high economic growth rates and unsustainable environment and low or zero economic growth and environmental sustainability

Dynamic Spillovers of Oil Price Shocks and Policy Uncertainty

This study examines the dynamic relationship between changes in oil prices and the economic policy uncertainty index for a sample of both net oil-exporting and net oil-importing countries over the period 1997:01-2013:06. To achieve that, we extend the Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012) dynamic spillover index using structural decomposition. The results reveal that economic policy uncertainty (oil price shocks) responds negatively to aggregate demand oil price shocks (economic policy uncertainty shocks). Furthermore, during the Great Recession of 2007-2009, total spillovers increase considerably, reaching unprecedented heights. Moreover, in net terms, economic policy uncertainty becomes the dominant transmitter of shocks between 1997 and 2009, while in the post-2009 period there is a significant role for supply-side and oil specific demand shocks, as net transmitters of spillover effects. These results are important for policy makers, as well as, investors interested in the oil market. (authors' abstract)Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Serie