Selection in Reported Epidemiological Risks: An Empirical Assessment

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies may be subject to selective reporting, but empirical evidence thereof is limited. We empirically evaluated the extent of selection of significant results and large effect sizes in a large sample of recent articles. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We evaluated 389 articles of epidemiological studies that reported, in their respective abstracts, at least one relative risk for a continuous risk factor in contrasts based on median, tertile, quartile, or quintile categorizations. We examined the proportion and correlates of reporting statistically significant and nonsignificant results in the abstract and whether the magnitude of the relative risks presented (coined to be consistently ≥1.00) differs depending on the type of contrast used for the risk factor. In 342 articles (87.9%), ≥1 statistically significant relative risk was reported in the abstract, while only 169 articles (43.4%) reported ≥1 statistically nonsignificant relative risk in the abstract. Reporting of statistically significant results was more common with structured abstracts, and was less common in US-based studies and in cancer outcomes. Among 50 randomly selected articles in which the full text was examined, a median of nine (interquartile range 5–16) statistically significant and six (interquartile range 3–16) statistically nonsignificant relative risks were presented (p = 0.25). Paradoxically, the smallest presented relative risks were based on the contrasts of extreme quintiles; on average, the relative risk magnitude was 1.41-, 1.42-, and 1.36-fold larger in contrasts of extreme quartiles, extreme tertiles, and above-versus-below median values, respectively (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Published epidemiological investigations almost universally highlight significant associations between risk factors and outcomes. For continuous risk factors, investigators selectively present contrasts between more extreme groups, when relative risks are inherently lower

International collaboration, funding and association with burden of disease in randomized controlled trials in Africa

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess whether randomized controlled trials conducted in Africa with collaborators from outside Africa were more closely associated with health conditions that have a burden of disease that is of specific importance to Africa than with conditions of more general global importance or with conditions important to developed countries. We also assessed whether the source of funding influenced a study's relevance to Africa. METHODS: We compared randomized controlled trials performed in Africa that looked at diseases specifically relevant to Africa (as determined by burden of disease criteria) with trials classified as looking at diseases of global importance or diseases important to developed countries in order to assess differences in collaboration and funding. FINDINGS: Of 520 trials assessed, 347 studied diseases that are specifically important to Africa; 99 studied globally important diseases and 74 studied diseases that are important to developed countries. The strongest independent predictor of whether a study was of specifically African or global importance was the corresponding author's country of origin: African importance was negatively associated with a corresponding author being from South Africa (odds ratio (OR) = 0.04; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.02–0.10) but there was little difference between corresponding authors from other African countries and corresponding authors from countries outside Africa. The importance of a study to Africa was independently associated with having more non-African authors (OR per author = 1.31; 95% CI = 1.08–1.58), fewer trial sites (OR per site = 0.69; 95% CI = 0.50–0.96), and reporting of funding (OR = 2.14; 95% CI = 1.15–4.00). Similar patterns were present in the comparisons of trials studying diseases important to Africa versus those studying diseases important to developed countries with stronger associations overall. When funding was reported, private industry funding was negatively associated with African importance compared with global importance (OR = 0.31, P = 0.008 for African importance and OR = 0.51, P = 0.57 for importance for developed countries). CONCLUSION: The relevance to Africa of trials conducted in Africa was not adversely affected by collaboration with non-African researchers but funding from private industry was associated with a decreased emphasis on diseases relevant to Afric

Design of MW-Class Coaxial Gyrotron Cavities With Mode-Converting Corrugation Operating at the Second Cyclotron Harmonic

This article presents investigations on the design of coaxial gyrotron cavities with mode-converting corrugations, operating at the second harmonic of the electron cyclotron frequency with output power of the order of megawatts. The suppression of the competing modes interacting at the fundamental cyclotron frequency is achieved by the combination of a corrugated coaxial insert and mode-converting corrugation on the outer wall. The outer corrugation couples the key competing modes to lower order modes with reduced quality factor. The design steps, which form a generally applicable design procedure, are described in detail. As an illustrative example, the proposed procedure is used for the design of a cavity for a fusion-relevant, second-harmonic MW-class gyrotron, operating at 170 GHz with the TE 37,1837,18 mode. From the simulations, it is found that for the proposed design, this mode is excited with an output power of around/ ∼ 1.5 MW. Two additional paths for cavity optimization toward even higher output power are also presented

International ranking systems for universities and institutions: a critical appraisal

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Ranking of universities and institutions has attracted wide attention recently. Several systems have been proposed that attempt to rank academic institutions worldwide.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We review the two most publicly visible ranking systems, the Shanghai Jiao Tong University 'Academic Ranking of World Universities' and the Times Higher Education Supplement 'World University Rankings' and also briefly review other ranking systems that use different criteria. We assess the construct validity for educational and research excellence and the measurement validity of each of the proposed ranking criteria, and try to identify generic challenges in international ranking of universities and institutions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>None of the reviewed criteria for international ranking seems to have very good construct validity for both educational and research excellence, and most don't have very good construct validity even for just one of these two aspects of excellence. Measurement error for many items is also considerable or is not possible to determine due to lack of publication of the relevant data and methodology details. The concordance between the 2006 rankings by Shanghai and Times is modest at best, with only 133 universities shared in their top 200 lists. The examination of the existing international ranking systems suggests that generic challenges include adjustment for institutional size, definition of institutions, implications of average measurements of excellence versus measurements of extremes, adjustments for scientific field, time frame of measurement and allocation of credit for excellence.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Naïve lists of international institutional rankings that do not address these fundamental challenges with transparent methods are misleading and should be abandoned. We make some suggestions on how focused and standardized evaluations of excellence could be improved and placed in proper context.</p

Reporting of conflicts of interest in guidelines of preventive and therapeutic interventions

BACKGROUND: Guidelines published in major medical journals are very influential in determining clinical practice. It would be essential to evaluate whether conflicts of interests are disclosed in these publications. We evaluated the reporting of conflicts of interest and the factors that may affect such disclosure in a sample of 191 guidelines on therapeutic and/or preventive measures published in 6 major clinical journals (Annals of Internal Medicine, BMJ, JAMA, Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine, Pediatrics) in 1979, 1984, 1989, 1994 and 1999. RESULTS: Only 7 guidelines (3.7%) mentioned conflicts of interest and all were published in 1999 (17.5% (7/40) of guidelines published in 1999 alone). Reporting of conflicts of interest differed significantly by journal (p=0.026), availability of disclosure policy by the journal (p=0.043), source of funding (p < 0.001) and number of authors (p=0.004). In the entire database of 191 guidelines, a mere 18 authors disclosed a total of 24 potential conflicts of interest and most pertained to minor issues. CONCLUSIONS: Despite some recent improvement, reporting of conflicts of interest in clinical guidelines published in influential journals is largely neglected

Primary open angle glaucoma due to T377M MYOC: Population mapping of a Greek founder mutation in Northwestern Greece

BACKGROUND: Mutations in the MYOC gene have been shown to explain 5% of unrelated primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) in different populations. In particular, the T377M MYOC mutation has arisen at least three separate times in history, in Great Britain, India, and Greece. The purpose of this study is to investigate the distribution of the mutation among different population groups in the northwestern region of Greece. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We explored the distribution of the "Greek" T377M founder mutation in the Epirus region in Northwestern Greece, which could be its origin. Genotyping was performed in POAG cases and controls by PCR amplification of the MYOC gene, followed by digestion with restriction enzyme. Statistical analyses were performed by an exact test, the Kaplan-Meier method and the t-test. RESULTS: In the isolated Chrysovitsa village in the Pindus Mountains, a large POAG family demonstrated the T377M mutation in 20 of 66 family members while no controls from the Epirus region (n = 124) carried this mutation (P < 0.001). Among other POAG cases from Epirus, 2 out of 14 familial cases and 1 out of 80 sporadic cases showed the mutation (P = 0.057). The probability of POAG diagnosis with advancing age among mutation carriers was 23% at age 40, and reached 100% at age 75. POAG patients with the T377M mutation were diagnosed at a mean age of 51 years (SD +/- 13.9), which is younger than the sporadic or familial POAG cases: 63.1 (SD +/- 11) and 66.8 (SD +/- 9.8) years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The T377M mutation was found in high proportion in members of the Chrysovitsa family (30.3%), in lower proportion in familial POAG cases (14.2%) and seems rare in sporadic POAG cases (1.2%), while no controls (0%) from the Epirus region carried the mutation. Historical and geographical data may explain the distribution of this mutation within Greece and worldwide

Evaluation of easily measured risk factors in the prediction of osteoporotic fractures

BACKGROUND: Fracture represents the single most important clinical event in patients with osteoporosis, yet remains under-predicted. As few premonitory symptoms for fracture exist, it is of critical importance that physicians effectively and efficiently identify individuals at increased fracture risk. METHODS: Of 3426 postmenopausal women in CANDOO, 40, 158, 99, and 64 women developed a new hip, vertebral, wrist or rib fracture, respectively. Seven easily measured risk factors predictive of fracture in research trials were examined in clinical practice including: age (<65, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80+ years), rising from a chair with arms (yes, no), weight (< 57, ≥ 57kg), maternal history of hip facture (yes, no), prior fracture after age 50 (yes, no), hip T-score (>-1, -1 to >-2.5, ≤-2.5), and current smoking status (yes, no). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted. RESULTS: The inability to rise from a chair without the use of arms (3.58; 95% CI: 1.17, 10.93) was the most significant risk factor for new hip fracture. Notable risk factors for predicting new vertebral fractures were: low body weight (1.57; 95% CI: 1.04, 2.37), current smoking (1.95; 95% CI: 1.20, 3.18) and age between 75–79 years (1.96; 95% CI: 1.10, 3.51). New wrist fractures were significantly identified by low body weight (1.71, 95% CI: 1.01, 2.90) and prior fracture after 50 years (1.96; 95% CI: 1.19, 3.22). Predictors of new rib fractures include a maternal history of a hip facture (2.89; 95% CI: 1.04, 8.08) and a prior fracture after 50 years (2.16; 95% CI: 1.20, 3.87). CONCLUSION: This study has shown that there exists a variety of predictors of future fracture, besides BMD, that can be easily assessed by a physician. The significance of each variable depends on the site of incident fracture. Of greatest interest is that an inability to rise from a chair is perhaps the most readily identifiable significant risk factor for hip fracture and can be easily incorporated into routine clinical practice

Cellular Automata Applications in Shortest Path Problem

Cellular Automata (CAs) are computational models that can capture the essential features of systems in which global behavior emerges from the collective effect of simple components, which interact locally. During the last decades, CAs have been extensively used for mimicking several natural processes and systems to find fine solutions in many complex hard to solve computer science and engineering problems. Among them, the shortest path problem is one of the most pronounced and highly studied problems that scientists have been trying to tackle by using a plethora of methodologies and even unconventional approaches. The proposed solutions are mainly justified by their ability to provide a correct solution in a better time complexity than the renowned Dijkstra's algorithm. Although there is a wide variety regarding the algorithmic complexity of the algorithms suggested, spanning from simplistic graph traversal algorithms to complex nature inspired and bio-mimicking algorithms, in this chapter we focus on the successful application of CAs to shortest path problem as found in various diverse disciplines like computer science, swarm robotics, computer networks, decision science and biomimicking of biological organisms' behaviour. In particular, an introduction on the first CA-based algorithm tackling the shortest path problem is provided in detail. After the short presentation of shortest path algorithms arriving from the relaxization of the CAs principles, the application of the CA-based shortest path definition on the coordinated motion of swarm robotics is also introduced. Moreover, the CA based application of shortest path finding in computer networks is presented in brief. Finally, a CA that models exactly the behavior of a biological organism, namely the Physarum's behavior, finding the minimum-length path between two points in a labyrinth is given.Comment: To appear in the book: Adamatzky, A (Ed.) Shortest path solvers. From software to wetware. Springer, 201

Appropriate Osteoporosis Treatment by Family Physicians inResponse to FRAX vs CAROC Reporting: Results Froma Randomized Controlled Trial

© 2014 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Canadian guidelines recommend either the FRAX or the Canadian Association of Radiologists and Osteoporosis Canada (CAROC) fracture risk assessment tools to report 10-yr fracture risk as low (20%). It is unknown whether one reporting system is more effective in helping family physicians (FPs) identify individuals who require treatment. Individuals ≥50yr old with a distal radius fracture and no previous osteoporosis diagnosis or treatment were recruited. Participants underwent a dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry scan and answered questions about fracture risk factors. Participants\u27 FPs were randomized to receive either a FRAX report or the standard CAROC-derived bone mineral density report currently used by the institution. Only the FRAX report included statements regarding treatment recommendations. Within 3 mo, all participants were asked about follow-up care by their FP, and treatment recommendations were compared with anosteoporosis specialist. Sixty participants were enrolled (31 to FRAX and 29 to CAROC). Kappa statistics of agreement in treatment recommendation were 0.64 for FRAX and 0.32 for bone mineral density. The FRAX report was preferred by FPs and resulted in better postfracture follow-up and treatment that agreed more closely with a specialist. Either the clear statement of fracture risk or the specific statement of treatment recommendations on the FRAX report may have supported FPs to make better treatment decisions