WÜRFEL, ZUFALL UND WAHRSCHEINLICHKEIT: EIN BLICK AUF DIE VORGESCHICHTE DER STOCHASTIK

Es ist üblich, die Ursprünge der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung in verschiedenen Arbeiten zu sehen, die im 17.Jahrhundert entstanden sind. Nun kann man sich natürlich fragen, ob nicht einige der Begriffe und Überlegungen, die heute zur Stochastik gehören, schon früher vorhanden gewesen sind. In dieser Arbeit versuchen wir, diese Frage zu beantworten: Wir skizzieren den Wahrscheinlichkeitsbegriff, der in der Antike, im Mittelalter und in der frühen Neuzeit zu finden ist und gehen der Beurteilung von Chancen durch Auszählen der günstigen Fälle und frühen Feststellungen von statistischer Regelmäßigkeit nach

Livelihood and Conservation Aspects of Non-wood Forest Product Collection in the Shaxi Valley, Southwest China1

Livelihood and Conservation Aspects of Non-wood Forest Product Collection in the Shaxi Valley, Southwest China. The Shaxi Valley in Yunnan Province, P.R. China, is inhabited by Tibeto-Burman ethnic groups. We found a clear dichotomy between household strategies in the valley bottom and the mountain areas, with significantly lower household income in the mountains. The majority Bai people live predominantly in the fertile valley floor and cultivate rice, keep livestock, and commonly pursue off-farm work. Other ethnic groups live in more remote mountainous areas of the Shaxi Valley, where the collection of non-wood forest products, especially wild mushrooms, plays an important role in securing livelihoods. However, only households in the valley's central villages engage in the profitable non-wood forest product trade. Mushroom populations appear to be less vulnerable to commercial harvest than the rapidly declining wild medicinal plant populations. Due to this decline, local farmers have gained interest in cultivating medicinal plants, but only if risks are low and if financial and technical support is provided. Encouraging the cultivation of medicinal plants appears to be an appropriate means of sustainable community developmen

Diminished mental- and physical function and lack of social support are associated with shorter survival in community dwelling older persons of Botswana

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mortality rates for older persons in Botswana have been unavailable and little is known of predictors of mortality in old age. This study may serve as a precursor for more detailed assessments.</p> <p>The objective was to assess diminished function and lack of social support as indicators of short term risk of death.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A national population based prospective survey was undertaken in Botswana; twelve rural areas and three urban centers were included.</p> <p>372 community-dwelling persons aged sixty years and over, were included; 265 were followed-up. Sixteen subjects were deceased at follow-up.</p> <p>Subjects were interviewed and clinically assessed at home. Measures of cognitive function, depression and physical function and sociodemographic information were collected. Subjects were followed-up at average 6.8 months after baseline.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall mortality rate was 10.9 per 100 person years. Age-adjusted odds ratios (OR) for death during follow-up were; 4.2 (CI 1.4–12.5) and 3.6 (CI 1.0–12.7) for those with diminished physical- and cognitive function, respectively.</p> <p>Indicators of limited social support; household with only 1 or 2 persons and eating alone, yielded age adjusted ORs of 4.3 (CI 1.5–12.5) and 6.7 (CI 2.2–20), respectively, for death during follow-up.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Older community dwelling persons with diminished cognitive- or physical function, solitary daily meals and living in a small household have a significantly increased risk of rapid deterioration and death.</p> <p>Health policy should include measures to strengthen informal support and expand formal service provisions to older persons with poor function and limited social networks in order to prevent premature deaths.</p