A New Method for Calculating Arrival Distribution of Ultra-High Energy Cosmic Rays above 10^19 eV with Modifications by the Galactic Magnetic Field

We present a new method for calculating arrival distribution of UHECRs including modifications by the galactic magnetic field. We perform numerical simulations of UHE anti-protons, which are injected isotropically at the earth, in the Galaxy and record the directions of velocities at the earth and outside the Galaxy for all of the trajectories. We then select some of them so that the resultant mapping of the velocity directions outside the Galaxy of the selected trajectories corresponds to a given source location scenario, applying Liouville's theorem. We also consider energy loss processes of UHE protons in the intergalactic space. Applying this method to our source location scenario which is adopted in our recent study and can explain the AGASA observation above 4 \times 10^{19} eV, we calculate the arrival distribution of UHECRs including lower energy (E>10^19 eV) ones. We find that our source model can reproduce the large-scale isotropy and the small-scale anisotropy on UHECR arrival distribution above 10^19 eV observed by the AGASA. We also demonstrate the UHECR arrival distribution above 10^19 eV with the event number expected by future experiments in the next few years. The interesting feature of the resultant arrival distribution is the arrangement of the clustered events in the order of their energies, reflecting the directions of the galactic magnetic field. This is also pointed out by Alvarez-Muniz et al.(2002). This feature will allow us to obtain some kind of information about the composition of UHECRs and the magnetic field with increasing amount of data.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, to appear in the Astrophysical Journa

On exposure, vulnerability and violence: Spatial distribution of risk factors for climate change and violent conflict across Kenya and Uganda

Recent studies discuss the link between climate change and violent conflict, especially for East Africa. While there is extensive literature on the question whether climate change increases the risk of violent conflict onset, not much is known about where a climate-conflict link is most likely to be found. We address this question by analyzing the spatial distribution of the factors commonly associated with a high exposure and vulnerability to climate change, and a high risk of violent conflict onset in Kenya and Uganda. Drawing on recent literature and quantitative data for the period 1998–2008, we develop various specifications of a composite risk index (CRI) with a spatial resolution of half a degree for Kenya and Uganda in the year 2008. A quantitative comparison with conflict data for the year 2008 provides support for the composite risk index. Finally, the composite risk index is contrasted with the findings of three qualitative case studies, which provide mixed support for the index and help to identify its strengths and weaknesses as well as conceptual needs for further quantitative studies on climate change and violent conflict

The optical depth of the Universe to ultrahigh energy cosmic ray scattering in the magnetized large scale structure

This paper provides an analytical description of the transport of ultrahigh energy cosmic rays in an inhomogeneously magnetized intergalactic medium. This latter is modeled as a collection of magnetized scattering centers such as radio cocoons, magnetized galactic winds, clusters or magnetized filaments of large scale structure, with negligible magnetic fields in between. Magnetic deflection is no longer a continuous process, it is rather dominated by scattering events. We study the interaction between high energy cosmic rays and the scattering agents. We then compute the optical depth of the Universe to cosmic ray scattering and discuss the phenomological consequences for various source scenarios. For typical parameters of the scattering centers, the optical depth is greater than unity at 5x10^{19}eV, but the total angular deflection is smaller than unity. One important consequence of this scenario is the possibility that the last scattering center encountered by a cosmic ray be mistaken with the source of this cosmic ray. In particular, we suggest that part of the correlation recently reported by the Pierre Auger Observatory may be affected by such delusion: this experiment may be observing in part the last scattering surface of ultrahigh energy cosmic rays rather than their source population. Since the optical depth falls rapidly with increasing energy, one should probe the arrival directions of the highest energy events beyond 10^{20}eV on an event by event basis to circumvent this effect.Comment: version to appear in PRD; substantial improvements: extended introduction, sections added on angular images and on direction dependent effects with sky maps of optical depth, enlarged discussion of Auger results (conclusions unchanged); 27 pages, 9 figure

Distortion of Ultra-high-energy sky by Galactic Magnetic Field

We investigate the deflections of UHE protons by Galactic magnetic field(GMF) using four conventional GMF models in order to discuss the positional correlation between the arrival distribution of UHECRs and their sources. UHE protons coming from the direction around the Galactic center are highly deflected above $8^{\circ}$ by the dipole magnetic field during their propagation in Galactic space. However, in bisymmetric spiral field models, there are directions with the deflection angle below $1^{\circ}$. One of these directions is toward Centaurus A, the nearest radio-loud active galactic nuclei that is one of possible candidates of UHECR sources. On the other hand, UHE protons arriving from the direction of the anti-Galactic center are less deflected, especially in bisymmetric spiral field models. Thus, the northern hemisphere, not including the Galactic center, is suitable for the studies of correlation with sources. The dependence on model parameters is also investigated. The deflection angles of UHE protons are dependent on the pitch angle of the spiral field. We also investigate distortion of the supergalactic plane by GMF. Since the distortion in the direction around Galactic center strongly depends on the GMF model, we can obtain information on GMF around Galactic center if Pierre Auger Observatory finds the significant positional correlation around the supergalactic plane.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, submitted to Ap

Variational assimilation of Lagrangian data in oceanography

We consider the assimilation of Lagrangian data into a primitive equations circulation model of the ocean at basin scale. The Lagrangian data are positions of floats drifting at fixed depth. We aim at reconstructing the four-dimensional space-time circulation of the ocean. This problem is solved using the four-dimensional variational technique and the adjoint method. In this problem the control vector is chosen as being the initial state of the dynamical system. The observed variables, namely the positions of the floats, are expressed as a function of the control vector via a nonlinear observation operator. This method has been implemented and has the ability to reconstruct the main patterns of the oceanic circulation. Moreover it is very robust with respect to increase of time-sampling period of observations. We have run many twin experiments in order to analyze the sensitivity of our method to the number of floats, the time-sampling period and the vertical drift level. We compare also the performances of the Lagrangian method to that of the classical Eulerian one. Finally we study the impact of errors on observations.Comment: 31 page

Damped finite-time-singularity driven by noise

We consider the combined influence of linear damping and noise on a dynamical finite-time-singularity model for a single degree of freedom. We find that the noise effectively resolves the finite-time-singularity and replaces it by a first-passage-time or absorbing state distribution with a peak at the singularity and a long time tail. The damping introduces a characteristic cross-over time. In the early time regime the probability distribution and first-passage-time distribution show a power law behavior with scaling exponent depending on the ratio of the non linear coupling strength to the noise strength. In the late time regime the behavior is controlled by the damping. The study might be of relevance in the context of hydrodynamics on a nanometer scale, in material physics, and in biophysics.Comment: 9 pages, 4 eps-figures, revtex4 fil

Para to Ortho transition of metallic dimers on Si(001)

Extensive electronic structure calculations are performed to obtain the stable geometries of metals like Al, Ga and In on the Si(001) surface at 0.5 ML and 1 ML coverages. Our results coupled with previous theoretical findings explain the recent experimental data in a comprehensive fashion. At low coverages, as shown by previous works, `Para' dimers give the lowest energy structure. With increasing coverage beyond 0.5 ML, `Ortho' dimers become part of low energy configurations leading toward a `Para' to `Ortho' transition at 1 ML coverage. For In mixed staggered dimers (`Ortho' and `Para') give the lowest energy configuration. For Ga, mixed dimers are non-staggered, while for Al `Para' to `Ortho' transition of dimers is complete. Thus at intermediate coverages between 0.5 and 1 ML, the `Ortho' and `Para' dimers may coexist on the surface. Consequently, this may be an explanation of the fact that the experimental observations can be successfully interpreted using either orientation. A supported zigzag structure at 0.5 ML, which resembles ${\rm (CH)_x}$, does not undergo a dimerization transition, and hence stays semi-metallic. Also, unlike ${\rm (CH)_x}$ the soliton formation is ruled out for this structure.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

Stock mechanics: predicting recession in S&P500, DJIA, and NASDAQ

An original method, assuming potential and kinetic energy for prices and conservation of their sum is developed for forecasting exchanges. Connections with power law are shown. Semiempirical applications on S&P500, DJIA, and NASDAQ predict a coming recession in them. An emerging market, Istanbul Stock Exchange index ISE-100 is found involving a potential to continue to rise.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figure

Arrival Distribution of Ultra-High Energy Cosmic Rays: Prospects for the Future

We predict the arrival distribution of UHECRs above $4 \times 10^{19}$ eV with the event number expected by future experiments in the next few years. We perform event simulations with the source model which is adopted in our recent study and can explain the current AGASA observation. At first, we calculate the harmonic amplitude and the two point correlation function for the simulated event sets. We find that significant anisotropy on large angle scale will be observed when $\sim 10^3$ cosmic rays above $4 \times 10^{19}$ eV are detected by future experiments. The statistics of the two point correlation function will also increase. The angle scale at which the events have strong correlation with each other corresponds to deflection angle of UHECR in propagating in the EGMF, which in turn can be determined by the future observations. We further investigate the relation between the number of events clustered at a direction and the distance of their sources. Despite the limited amount of data, we find that the C2 triplet events observed by the AGASA may originate from the source within 100 Mpc. Merger galaxy Arp 299 (NGC 3690 + IC 694) is the best candidate for their source. If data accumulate, the UHECR sources within $\sim 100$ Mpc can be identified from observed event clusterings significantly. This will provide some kinds of information about poorly known parameters which influence the propagation of UHECRs, such as extragalactic and galactic magnetic field, chemical composition of observed cosmic rays. Also, we will reveal their origin with our method to identify the sources of UHECR. Finally, we predict the arrival distribution of UHECRs above $10^{20}$ eV, which is expected to be observed if the current HiRes spectrum is correct, and discuss their statistical features and implications.Comment: 11 pages, 9 figures. accepted version for publication in Ap