SECTORAL EFFECTS OF RINGGIT DEPRECIATION SHOCKS

The paper seeks to address two important questions-namely, is exchange rate depreciation expansionary or contractionary and are there distributional consequences of exchange rate shocks for the case of Malaysia? In the paper, we consider the relations between aggregate output as well as eight sectoral outputs and real effective exchange rate in multivariate setting. Applying multivariate cointegration test, we find evidence for cointegration among the variables for all sectors. More importantly, both real output (aggregate output as well as all sectoral output) and real exchange rate contribute significantly to the cointegration space, affirming the presence of long run relations between the two focused variables. In most cases, the estimated cointegrating vectors suggest expansionary currency depreciation. Our simulated dynamics using generalized impulse responses further substantiate this finding especially over longer horizons. Over shorter horizons, however, exchange rate depreciation can be contractionary for certain sectors particularly for the construction sector. Lastly, we also find evidence indicative of the differential effects of the currency shocks. Comparatively, the manufacturing sector, transport, storage and communication sector, and finance, insurance, real estates and business services sector seem to be affected more by exchange rate fluctuations.Exchange Rate Shocks, Sectoral Output, Cointegration, Generalized Impulse Responses

An Empirical Analysis of Real Activity and Stock Returns in an Emerging Market

The present paper analyzes the role of stock market returns as a predictor of real output for a fast-growing emerging market, Malaysia. In the analysis, forecasting equations for 1-, 2-, 4-, and 8-quarter forecasting horizons based on autoregressive distributed lags framework are adopted. From the estimation, we find evidence that stock market returns do contain predictive ability at short-forecasting horizons, especially at less than 4-quarter horizons. Estimating the forecasting models recursively, we note reduction of out-of-sample forecasting evaluation statistics, namely the mean absolute errors (MAE) and the mean squared forecast errors (MSFE), from those obtained from the simple autoregressive (AR) model. More importantly, the null hypothesis of equal predictive accuracy between the model with stock returns as a predictor and the AR model is rejected for the 1-quarter and 2-quarter forecasting horizons by the McCraken’s (2007) out-of-sample-F statistics.Stock Return, Real GDP Growth, Out-of-Sample Forecasts, Malaysia

Oil price risk in selected ASEAN markets

This paper analyzes the oil price risk in four ASEAN markets using a two-factor "market and oil" model and EGARCH(1, 1) variance specification. In the analysis, three alternative non-linear measures of oil prices are used and robustness check of basic results is also performed. The results suggest a direct relation between oil price changes and stock market returns and indicate no evidence for asymmetric oil price risk for Indonesia. Meanwhile, the asymmetric oil price risk seems apparent for the markets of Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. For an oil exporting Malaysia, the oil price decline tends to compromise its market performance while the oil price increase does not seem to be beneficial. In contrast, for oil-importing Singapore and Thailand, the oil price shocks tend to adversely affect their market returns. The contrasting experiences of these markets in the face of oil price fluctuations are attributed to the degree of oil dependency, level of financial development, and trade openness

EXCHANGE RATE FLEXIBILITY, CAPITAL MOBILITY AND INFLATION TRANSMISSION IN MALAYSIA

The paper assesses the international transmission of inflation for a small economy, Malaysia, over three sample periods marked by different degrees of exchange rate flexibility. Contradicting to conventional wisdom of less pronounced foreign nominal influences under the flexible exchange rate regime, this research finds evidence that the inflation transmission from the US to Malaysia is strongest during the period marked by increasing exchange rate flexibility (i.e. 1993-1998). This research also observes significant inflation effects of exchange rate depreciation during the same period. While this research observe less pronounced impacts of the US during the limited exchange rate flexibility period (i.e. 1988-1999), the US influences are virtually absent during the recent fixed regime (i.e. 1998-2005). This research believes that the intensity of capital flows across the three periods might have explained the results

A dynamic analysis of output, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in Malaysia

Present paper analyzes the interrelations between output, energy consumption, and carbon emissions in light of Malaysia’s development experience from a commodity-based economy to an industrial-based economy by means of a vector autoregression (VAR) framework. The results suggest substantial interactions among the three variables. Moreover, manufacturing output tends to exert persistent influences on carbon emissions, energy consumption, and non-manufacturing output. Meanwhile, the significant causal relations from non-manufacturing output to energy variables are found for first few years. These results are robust to the inclusion of additional variables – namely, trade openness, investment, and population – in the system

International Financial Integration through Depositary Receipts (DRs)

The issue of liquidity and underdevelopment of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) stock markets has caused problems to companies in those countries that seek higher equity capital. One way out of this problem is to employ international markets more intensively by seeking cheaper cost of capital through Depositary Receipts (DRs). Many studies on DRs focused on emerging and developed countries, leaving many OIC countries behind. Thus, this study investigates the financial implication by examining the integration of returns of local and foreign stock markets via American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and Global Depositary Receipts (GDRs) of OIC countries. Techniques employed in this study are cointegration and the speed of adjustments to examine the existence of integration between the local and foreign stock markets. The study covers a sample of 146 firms from 17 OIC countries that are cross-listed as ADRs or GDRs from 1992 to 2011. The findings show mixed results when some markets provide evidence of integration while others show evidence of segmentation. The study on the integration between DR and home equity markets has practical implications for both the international as well as domestic investors especially on portfolio selection, asset pricing and risk managemen

Bank lending, macroeconomic conditions and financial uncertainty: Evidence from Malaysia

AbstractIn this paper, we examine the interrelations between bank lending, macroeconomic conditions and financial uncertainty for an emerging economy, Malaysia. Adopting time series techniques of cointegration, causality and vector autoregressions (VARs), we arrive at the following main results. We note long run positive relations between real output and both real bank credits and real stock prices. However, with slow adjustment of real output in responses to credit expansion or stock price increase and weak exogeneity of the latter two variables, both credits and stock prices can be persistently higher than their fundamental values. The phenomenon can be detrimental since it heightens market uncertainty. Our results suggest that heightened market uncertainty is negatively related to output in the long run and, on the basis of dynamics analysis, it is likely to depress real output, real credit and real stock prices. At the same time, we note significant dynamic impacts of interest rate shocks on other variables. Taken together, these results have important implications for macroeconomic performance and stability for the case of Malaysia

SHORT-HORIZON ASYMMETRY IN CONDITIONAL MEAN OF ASEAN STOCK MARKET RETURNS

ABSTRACT This paper describes the return patterns of six ASEAN markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam

Tripartite analysis across business cycles in Turkey: A multi-timescale inquiry of efficiency, volatility and integration

AbstractIn the current era of globalization, deregulation and liberalization of markets have led to financial integration amongst developing and developed countries. The sudden massive inflow of capital into developing country's stock markets begs the question of whether or not the markets are sufficiently efficient to handle the increasing integration of markets. Furthermore, the relationship between the integration and efficiency of stock markets tends to be of greater importance during economic downturns. Taking Turkey as a case study owing to its economic growth and importance in two successful blocs, i.e. the EU and the OIC, we attempt to analyse the linkages between stock market efficiency and integration during the different phases of the economy. The findings of our study provide an interesting insight into the relative improvement in volatility, efficiency and integration across business cycles, in a multi time scale analysis

Studies of Sea Surface Temperature and Chlorophyll-a Variations in East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia

This paper attempts to classify the oceanographic conditions of the fishing grids in east coast of Peninsular Malaysia using surface chlorophyll-a content and sea surface temperature (SST) data from satellite. The variation of SST and chlorophyll-a content in the South China Sea is greatly affected by the monsoon system. Analysis results showed that both SST and chlorophyll-a variations of the fishing grids are closely related to their geographical locations. The classification using chlorophyll-a on the fishing grids give a clearer variation compared to SST. Hierarchical cluster analysis gave a better means of understanding the variations of these oceanographic conditions and the relationship among the fishing grids. However, to understand how these variations of oceanographic condition affect the marine fisheries catch in Malaysian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), further studies should be conducted using longer time scale data