Predicting 30-Day Mortality for Patients With Acute Heart Failure in the Emergency Department: A Cohort Study.

Background: Physicians in the emergency department (ED) need additional tools to stratify patients with acute heart failure (AHF) according to risk. Objective: To predict mortality using data that are readily available at ED admission. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: 34 Spanish EDs. Participants: The derivation cohort included 4867 consecutive ED patients admitted during 2009 to 2011. The validation cohort comprised 3229 patients admitted in 2014. Measurements: 88 candidate risk factors and 30-day mortality. Results: Thirteen independent risk factors were identified in the derivation cohort and were combined into an overall score, the MEESSI-AHF (Multiple Estimation of risk based on the Emergency department Spanish Score In patients with AHF) score. This score predicted 30-day mortality with excellent discrimination (c-statistic, 0.836) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.99) and provided a steep gradient in 30-day mortality across risk groups (<2% for patients in the 2 lowest risk quintiles and 45% in the highest risk decile). These characteristics were confirmed in the validation cohort (c-statistic, 0.828). Multiple sensitivity analyses did not find important amounts of confounding or bias. Limitations: The study was confined to a single country. Participating EDs were not selected randomly. Many patients had missing data. Measurement of some risk factors was subjective. Conclusion: This tool has excellent discrimination and calibration and was validated in a different cohort from the one that was used to develop it. Physicians can consider using this tool to inform clinical decisions as further studies are done to determine whether the tool enhances physician decision making and improves patient outcomes. Primary Funding Source: Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spanish Ministry of Health; Fundació La Marató de TV3; and Catalonia Govern

Effects on short term outcome of non-invasive ventilation use in the emergency department to treat patients with acute heart failure: A propensity score-based analysis of the EAHFE Registry

Objective: To assess the effects of non-invasive ventilation (NIV) in emergency department (ED) patients with acute heart failure (AHF) on short term outcomes. Methods: Patients from the EAHFE Registry (a multicenter, observational, multipurpose, cohort-designed database including consecutive AHF patients in 41 Spanish EDs) were grouped based on NIV treatment (NIV+ and NIV–groups). Using propensity score (PS) methodology, we identified two subgroups of patients matched by 38 covariates and compared regarding 30-day survival (primary outcome). Interaction was investigated for age, sex, ischemic cardiomyopathy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, AHF precipitated by an acute coronary syndrome (ACS), AHF classified as hypertensive or acute pulmonary edema (APE), and systolic blood pressure (SBP). Secondary outcomes were intensive care unit (ICU) admission; mechanical ventilation; in-hospital, 3-day and 7-day mortality; and prolonged hospitalization (>7 days). Results: Of 11, 152 patients from the EAHFE (age (SD): 80 (10) years; 55.5% women), 718 (6.4%) were NIV+ and had a higher 30-day mortality (HR = 2.229; 95%CI = 1.861–2.670) (p 85 years, p < 0.001), AHF associated with ACS (p = 0.045), and SBP < 100 mmHg (p < 0.001). No significant differences were found in the secondary endpoints except for more prolonged hospitalizations in NIV+ patients (OR = 1.445; 95%CI = 1.122–1.862) (p = 0.004). Conclusion: The use of NIV to treat AHF in ED is not associated with improved mortality outcomes and should be cautious in old patients and those with ACS and hypotension

Emergency department direct discharge compared to short-stay unit admission for selected patients with acute heart failure: analysis of short-term outcomes

Short stay unit (SSU) is an alternative to conventional hospitalization in patients with acute heart failure (AHF), but the prognosis is not known compared to direct discharge from the emergency department (ED). To determine whether direct discharge from the ED of patients diagnosed with AHF is associated with early adverse outcomes versus hospitalization in SSU. Endpoints, defined as 30-day all-cause mortality or post-discharge adverse events, were evaluated in patients diagnosed with AHF in 17 Spanish EDs with an SSU, and compared by ED discharge vs. SSU hospitalization. Endpoint risk was adjusted for baseline and AHF episode characteristics and in patients matched by propensity score (PS) for SSU hospitalization. Overall, 2358 patients were discharged home and 2003 were hospitalized in SSUs. Discharged patients were younger, more frequently men, with fewer comorbidities, had better baseline status, less infection, rapid atrial fibrillation and hypertensive emergency as the AHF trigger, and had a lower severity of AHF episode. While their 30-day mortality rate was lower than in patients hospitalized in SSU (4.4% vs. 8.1%, p < 0.001), 30-day post-discharge adverse events were similar (27.2% vs. 28.4%, p = 0.599). After adjustment, there were no differences in the 30-day risk of mortality of discharged patients (adjusted HR 0.846, 95% CI 0.637–1.107) or adverse events (1.035, 0.914–1.173). In 337 pairs of PS-matched patients, there were no differences in mortality or risk of adverse event between patients directly discharged or admitted to an SSU (0.753, 0.409–1.397; and 0.858, 0.645–1.142; respectively). Direct ED discharge of patients diagnosed with AHF provides similar outcomes compared to patients with similar characteristics and hospitalized in a SSU

Departments involved during the first episode of acute heart failure and subsequent emergency department revisits and rehospitalisations: an outlook through the NOVICA cohort

Objectives: We investigated the natural history of patients after a first episode of acute heart failure (FEAHF) requiring emergency department (ED) consultation, focusing on: the frequency of ED visits and hospitalisations, departments admitting patients during the first and subsequent hospitalisations, and factors associated with difficult disease control. Methods and results: We included consecutive patients diagnosed with FEAHF (either with or without previous heart failure diagnosis) in four EDs during 5 months in three different time periods (2009, 2011, 2014). Diagnosis was adjudicated by local principal investigators. The clinical characteristics of the index event were prospectively recorded, and all post-discharge ED visits and hospitalisations [related/unrelated to acute heart failure (AHF)], as well as departments involved in subsequent hospitalisations were retrospectively ascertained. 'Uncontrolled disease' during the first year after FEAHF was considered if patients were attended at ED (≥ 3 times) or hospitalised (≥ 2 times) for AHF or died. Overall, 505 patients with FEAHF were included and followed for a mean of 2.4 years. In-hospital mortality was 7.5%. Among 467 patients discharged alive, 288 died [median survival 3.9 years, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.5-4.4], 421 (90%) revisited the ED (2342 ED visits; 42.4% requiring hospitalisation, 34.0% AHF-related) and 357 (77%) were hospitalised (1054 hospitalisations; 94.1% through ED, 51.4% AHF-related). AHF-related hospitalisations were mainly in internal medicine (28.0%), short-stay unit (26.3%), cardiology (20.8%), and geriatrics (14.1%). Only 47.4% of AHF-related hospitalisations were in the same department as the FEAHF, and internal medicine involvement significantly increased with subsequent hospitalisations (P = 0.01). Uncontrolled disease was observed in 31% of patients, which was independently related to age > 80 years [odds ratio (OR) 1.80, 95% CI 1.17-2.77], systolic blood pressure < 110 mmHg at ED arrival (OR 2.61, 95% CI 1.26-5.38) and anaemia (OR 2.39, 95% CI 1.51-3.78). Conclusion: In the present aged cohort of AHF patients from Barcelona, Spain, the natural history after FEAHF showed different patterns of hospital department involvement. Advanced age, low systolic blood pressure and anaemia were factors related to uncontrolled disease during the year after debut

Acute heart failure and adverse events associated with the presence of renal dysfunction and hyperkalaemia. EAHFE- renal dysfunction and hyperkalaemia

Objective: To study the outcomes of patients with acute heart failure (AHF) presenting renal dysfunction (RD) or hyperkalaemia (Hk) alone or in combination. Method: We analysed the data of the EAHFE registry, a multicentre, non interventionist cohort with prospective follow-up of patients with AHF. Four groups were defined based on the presence or not of RD or Hk alone or in combination. The primary endpoint was 30-day all-cause mortality. Results: A total of 11,935 of the 13,791 patients included in the EAHFE registry were analysed. Of these, 5088 (42.6%) did not have RD or Hk (NoRD-NoHk), 150 (1.3%) had no RD but had Hk (NoRD-Hk), 6012 (50.4%) had RD but not Hk (RD-NoHk) and 685 (5.7%) had both RD and Hk (RD-Hk). Thirty-day all-cause mortality was greatest in the RD-Hk group with an adjusted Hazard Ratio (HR) of 2.44 (confidence interval 95% [CI95%] 1.67-3.55; p < 0.001) and in the RD-NoHk group with an adjusted HR of 1.34 (CI95% 1.04-1.71; p = 0.022). There were no significant differences in in-hospital mortality and reconsultation at 30 days for HF. For the combined endpoint of 30-day all-cause mortality the adjusted HR was 1.33 (CI95% 1.04-1.70); (p = 0.021) for the RD-Hk group. Conclusions: The association of 30-day all-cause mortality with the presence of RD and Hk in patients presenting AHF at admission is greater than in those without this combination

Synergistic Impact of Systolic Blood Pressure and Perfusion Status on Mortality in Acute Heart Failure

Physical examination remains the cornerstone in the assessment of acute heart failure. There is a lack of adequately powered studies assessing the combined impact of both systolic blood pressure (SBP) and hypoperfusion on short-term mortality.; Patients with acute heart failure from 41 Spanish emergency departments were recruited consecutively in 3 time periods between 2011 and 2016. Logistic regression models were used to assess the association of 30-day mortality with SBP (<90, 90-109, 110-129, and ≥130 mm Hg) and with manifestations of hypoperfusion (cold skin, cutaneous pallor, delayed capillary refill, livedo reticularis, and mental confusion) at admission.; Among 10 979 patients, 1143 died within the first 30 days (10.2%). There was an inverse association between 30-day mortality and initial SBP (35.4%, 18.9%, 12.4%, and 7.5% for SBP<90, SBP 90-109, SBP 110-129, and SBP≥130 mm Hg, respectively;; P; <0.001) and a positive association with hypoperfusion (8.0%, 14.8%, and 27.6% for those with none, 1, ≥2 signs/symptoms of hypoperfusion, respectively;; P; <0.001). After adjustment for 11 risk factors, the prognostic impact of hypoperfusion on 30-day mortality varied across SBP categories: SBP≥130 mm Hg (odds ratio [OR]=1.03 [95% CI, 0.77-1.36] and OR=1.18 [95% CI, 0.86-1.62] for 1 and ≥2 compared with 0 manifestations of hypoperfusion), SBP 110 to 129 mm Hg (OR=1.23 [95% CI, 0.86-1.77] and OR=2.18 [95% CI, 1.44-3.31], respectively), SBP 90 to 109 mm Hg (OR=1.29 [95% CI, 0.79-2.10] and OR=2.24 [95% CI, 1.36-3.66], respectively), and SBP<90 mm Hg (OR=1.34 [95% CI, 0.45-4.01] and OR=3.22 [95% CI, 1.30-7.97], respectively);; P; -for-interaction =0.043.; Hypoperfusion confers an incremental risk of 30-day all-cause mortality not only in patients with low SBP but also in normotensive patients. On admission, physical examination plays a major role in determining prognosis in patients with acute heart failure

Editor's choice- impact of identifying precipitating factors on 30-day mortality in acute heart failure patients

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to describe the prevalence and prognostic value of the most common triggering factors in acute heart failure. METHODS: Patients with acute heart failure from 41 Spanish emergency departments were recruited consecutively in three time periods between 2011 and 2016. Precipitating factors were classified as: (a) unrecognized; (b) infection; (c) atrial fibrillation; (d) anaemia; (e) hypertension; (f) acute coronary syndrome; (g) non-adherence; and (h) two or more precipitant factors. Unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression models were used to assess the association between 30-day mortality and each precipitant factor. The risk of dying was further evaluated by week intervals over the 30-day follow-up to assess the period of higher vulnerability for each precipitant factor. RESULTS: Approximately 69% of our 9999 patients presented with a triggering factor and 1002 died within the first 30 days (10.0%). The most prevalent factors were infection and atrial fibrillation. After adjusting for 11 known predictors, acute coronary syndrome was associated with higher 30-day mortality (odds ratio (OR) 1.87; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-3.42), whereas atrial fibrillation (OR 0.75; 95% CI 0.56-0.94) and hypertension (OR 0.34; 95% CI 0.21-0.55) were significantly associated with better outcomes when compared to patients without precipitant. Patients with infection, anaemia and non-compliance were not at higher risk of dying within 30 days. These findings were consistent across gender and age groups. The 30-day mortality time pattern varied between and within precipitant factors. CONCLUSIONS: Precipitant factors in acute heart failure patients are prevalent and have a prognostic value regardless of the patient's gender and age. They can be managed with specific treatments and can sometimes be prevented

Effects on short term outcome of non-invasive ventilation use in the emergency department to treat patients with acute heart failure: A propensity score-based analysis of the EAHFE Registry.

To assess the effects of non-invasive ventilation (NIV) in emergency department (ED) patients with acute heart failure (AHF) on short term outcomes. Patients from the EAHFE Registry (a multicenter, observational, multipurpose, cohort-designed database including consecutive AHF patients in 41 Spanish EDs) were grouped based on NIV treatment (NIV+ and NIV-groups). Using propensity score (PS) methodology, we identified two subgroups of patients matched by 38 covariates and compared regarding 30-day survival (primary outcome). Interaction was investigated for age, sex, ischemic cardiomyopathy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, AHF precipitated by an acute coronary syndrome (ACS), AHF classified as hypertensive or acute pulmonary edema (APE), and systolic blood pressure (SBP). Secondary outcomes were intensive care unit (ICU) admission; mechanical ventilation; in-hospital, 3-day and 7-day mortality; and prolonged hospitalization (>7 days). Of 11,152 patients from the EAHFE (age (SD): 80 (10) years; 55.5% women), 718 (6.4%) were NIV+ and had a higher 30-day mortality (HR = 2.229; 95%CI = 1.861-2.670) (p 85 years, p  The use of NIV to treat AHF in ED is not associated with improved mortality outcomes and should be cautious in old patients and those with ACS and hypotension

Influence of Meteorological Temperature and Pressure on the Severity of Heart Failure Decompensations

To investigate the relationship between ambient temperature and atmospheric pressure (AP) and the severity of heart failure (HF) decompensations.; We analysed patients coming from the Epidemioloy Acute Heart Failure Emergency (EAHFE) Registry, a multicentre prospective cohort study enrolling patients diagnosed with decompensated HF in 26 emergency departments (EDs) of 16 Spanish cities. We recorded patient and demographic data and maximum temperature (T; max; ) and AP (AP; max; ) the day before ED consultation. Associations between temperature and AP and severity endpoints were explored by logistic regression. We used restricted cubic splines to model continuous non-linear associations of temperature and AP with each endpoint.; We analysed 16,545 patients. Daily T; max; and AP; max; (anomaly) of the day before patient ED arrival ranged from 0.8 to 41.6° and from - 61.7 to 69.9 hPa, respectively. A total of 12,352 patients (75.2%) were hospitalised, with in-hospital mortality in 1171 (7.1%). The probability of hospitalisation by HF decompensation showed a U-shaped curve versus T; max; and an increasing trend versus AP; max; . Regarding temperature, hospitalisation significantly increased from 20 °C (reference) upwards (25 °C: OR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.04-1.21; 40 °C: 1.65, 1.13-2.40) and below 5.4 °C (5 °C: 1.21, 1.01-1.46). Concerning the mean AP of the city (anomaly = 0 hPa), hospitalisation increased when AP; max; (anomaly) was above + 7.0 hPa (atmospheric anticyclone; + 10 hPa: 1.14, 1.05-1.24; + 30 hPa: 2.02. 1.35-3.03). The lowest probability of mortality also corresponded to cold-mild temperatures and low AP, with a significant increased risk only found for T; max; above 24.3 °C (25 °C: 1.13, 1.01-1.27; 40 °C: 2.05, 1.15-3.64) and AP; max; (anomaly) above + 3.4 hPa (+ 10 hPa: 1.21, 1.07-1.36; + 30 hPa: 1.73, 1.06-2.81). Sensitivity analysis confirmed the main analysis results.; Temperature and AP are independently associated with the severity of HF decompensations, with possible different effects on the need for hospitalisation and in-hospital mortality

Ambient temperature and atmospheric pressure at discharge as precipitating factors in immediate adverse events in patients treated for decompensated heart failure

To investigate the relationship of ambient temperature and atmospheric pressure (AP) at patient discharge after an episode of acute heart failure (AHF) with very early post-discharge adverse outcomes. We analyzed 14,656 patients discharged after an AHF episode from 26 hospitals in 16 Spanish cities. The primary outcome was the 7-day post-discharge combined adverse event (emergency department -ED- revisit or hospitalization due to AHF, or all-cause death), and secondary outcomes were these three adverse events considered individually. Associations (adjusted for patient and demographic conditions, and length of stay -LOS- during the AHF index episode) of temperature and AP with the primary and secondary outcomes were investigated. We used restricted cubic splines to model the continuous non-linear association of temperature and AP with each endpoint. Some sensitivity analyses were performed. Patients were discharged after a median LOS of 5 days (IQR = 1-10). The highest temperature at discharge ranged from - 2 to 41.6 °C, and AP was from 892 to 1037 hPa. The 7-day post-discharge combined event occurred in 1242 patients (8.4%), with percentages of 7-day ED-revisit, hospitalization and death of 7.8%, 5.1% and 0.9%, respectively. We found no association between the maximal temperature and AP on the day of discharge and the primary or secondary outcomes. Similarly, there were no significant associations when the analyses were restricted to hospitalized patients (median LOS = 7 days, IQR = 4-11) during the index event, or when lag-1, lag-2 or the mean of the 3 post-discharge days (instead of point estimation) of ambient temperature and AP were considered. Temperature and AP on the day of patient discharge are not independently associated with the risk of very early adverse events during the vulnerable post-discharge period in patients discharged after an AHF episode