A hierarchical model for novel schemes of electrodialysis desalination

A new hierarchical model for the electrodialysis (ED) process is presented. The model has been implemented into gPROMs Modelbuilder (PSE), allowing the development of a distributed-parameters simulation tool that combines the effectiveness of a semi-empirical modelling approach to the flexibility of a layered arrangement of modelling scales. Thanks to its structure, the tool makes possible the simulation of many different and complex layouts, requiring only membrane properties as input parameters (e.g. membrane resistance or salt and water permeability). The model has been validated against original experimental data obtained from a lab scale ED test rig. Simulation results concerning a 4-stage treatment of seawater and dynamic batch operations of brackish water desalination are presented, showing how the model can be effectively used for predictive purposes and for providing useful insights on design and optimisation

Process design in SISO systems with input multiplicity using bifurcation analysis and optimisation

This paper presents an approach using continuation and optimisation methods for modifying a process design to avoid control difficulties caused by input multiplicity. The approach assumes an initial design, with a preassigned SISO control structure, has been obtained and is useful where there is an input multiplicity in the operating region. The condition for input multiplicity is obtained by inflating the state space model with a state representing the locus of the point of zero gain. The multiplicity condition is determined using the bifurcation analysis package, AUTO, which allows the study of the influence of operating conditions and parameters on input multiplicity behaviour to obtain an expression for the point of zero gain as a function of the design and disturbance variables. A process modification problem is formulated within an optimisation framework and solved to determine the minimal design parameter changes necessary to avoid input multiplicity given an assumed maximal disturbance. Results are presented for the application of the algorithm to a CSTR system demonstrating that small changes in some design variables can avoid input multiplicity problems in this case, and that the method can determine the changes necessary

Terminal valuations, growth rates and the implied cost of capital

This article is published with open access at Springerlink.comWe develop a model based on the notion that prices lead earnings, allowing for a simultaneous estimation of the implied growth rate and the cost of equity capital for US industrial sectors. The major difference between our approach and that in prior literature is that ours avoids the necessity to make assumptions about terminal values and consequently about future growth rates. In fact, growth rates are an endogenous variable, which is estimated simultaneously with the implied cost of equity capital. Since we require only 1-year-ahead forecasts of earnings and no assumptions about dividend payouts, our methodology allows us to estimate ex ante aggregate growth and risk premia over a larger sample of firms than has previously been possible. Our estimate of the risk premium being between 3.1 and 3.9 % is at the lower end of recent estimates, reflecting the inclusion of these short-lived companies. Our estimate of the long run growth is from 4.2 to 4.7 %

National prospective cohort study of the burden of acute small bowel obstruction

Background Small bowel obstruction is a common surgical emergency, and is associated with high levels of morbidity and mortality across the world. The literature provides little information on the conservatively managed group. The aim of this study was to describe the burden of small bowel obstruction in the UK. Methods This prospective cohort study was conducted in 131 acute hospitals in the UK between January and April 2017, delivered by trainee research collaboratives. Adult patients with a diagnosis of mechanical small bowel obstruction were included. The primary outcome was in‐hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included complications, unplanned intensive care admission and readmission within 30 days of discharge. Practice measures, including use of radiological investigations, water soluble contrast, operative and nutritional interventions, were collected. Results Of 2341 patients identified, 693 (29·6 per cent) underwent immediate surgery (within 24 h of admission), 500 (21·4 per cent) had delayed surgery after initial conservative management, and 1148 (49·0 per cent) were managed non‐operatively. The mortality rate was 6·6 per cent (6·4 per cent for non‐operative management, 6·8 per cent for immediate surgery, 6·8 per cent for delayed surgery; P = 0·911). The major complication rate was 14·4 per cent overall, affecting 19·0 per cent in the immediate surgery, 23·6 per cent in the delayed surgery and 7·7 per cent in the non‐operative management groups (P < 0·001). Cox regression found hernia or malignant aetiology and malnutrition to be associated with higher rates of death. Malignant aetiology, operative intervention, acute kidney injury and malnutrition were associated with increased risk of major complication. Conclusion Small bowel obstruction represents a significant healthcare burden. Patient‐level factors such as timing of surgery, acute kidney injury and nutritional status are factors that might be modified to improve outcomes

Outcomes following small bowel obstruction due to malignancy in the national audit of small bowel obstruction

Introduction Patients with cancer who develop small bowel obstruction are at high risk of malnutrition and morbidity following compromise of gastrointestinal tract continuity. This study aimed to characterise current management and outcomes following malignant small bowel obstruction. Methods A prospective, multicentre cohort study of patients with small bowel obstruction who presented to UK hospitals between 16th January and 13th March 2017. Patients who presented with small bowel obstruction due to primary tumours of the intestine (excluding left-sided colonic tumours) or disseminated intra-abdominal malignancy were included. Outcomes included 30-day mortality and in-hospital complications. Cox-proportional hazards models were used to generate adjusted effects estimates, which are presented as hazard ratios (HR) alongside the corresponding 95% confidence interval (95% CI). The threshold for statistical significance was set at the level of P ≤ 0.05 a-priori. Results 205 patients with malignant small bowel obstruction presented to emergency surgery services during the study period. Of these patients, 50 had obstruction due to right sided colon cancer, 143 due to disseminated intraabdominal malignancy, 10 had primary tumours of the small bowel and 2 patients had gastrointestinal stromal tumours. In total 100 out of 205 patients underwent a surgical intervention for obstruction. 30-day in-hospital mortality rate was 11.3% for those with primary tumours and 19.6% for those with disseminated malignancy. Severe risk of malnutrition was an independent predictor for poor mortality in this cohort (adjusted HR 16.18, 95% CI 1.86 to 140.84, p = 0.012). Patients with right-sided colon cancer had high rates of morbidity. Conclusions Mortality rates were high in patients with disseminated malignancy and in those with right sided colon cancer. Further research should identify optimal management strategy to reduce morbidity for these patient groups

Modelling of Electrodialysis units by a multi-scale process simulator

Drinking water production by desalination is an interesting alternative to face water scarcity issues. Electrodialysis (ED) is an electro-membrane process that is actually gaining attention as a competitive alternative for seawater and brackish water desalination due to recent developments in manufacturing of high performance ion exchange membranes (IEMs). In this context, a suitable process simulator can be a very effective tool in order to drive the design of optimized ED systems. In this work a novel mathematical model of ED units was developed by a hierarchical simulation strategy of separation of scales, in order to address the full simulation problem. The model was implemented in PSE gPROMS Modelbuilder. In the lower-hierarchy model, transport phenomena of salt and water were simulated within the whole cell pair of an electrodialyser. Then, the higher-hierarchy model describes the behaviour of the stack. The model is based on mass balance equations and phenomenological expressions of fluxes that describe transport phenomena along channels and across IEMs. In addition, Kirchhoff’s law together with the Nernst’s law for the non-Ohmic voltage drop was used to determine the electrical behaviour of the equivalent circuit. Finally, the model makes use of CFD correlations from a lower scale as input data in order to predict the effect of concentration polarization and the contribution of pumping to the energy consumption. Co-current, counter-current and crossflow configurations were simulated, by obtaining the distribution of current density/voltage and concentration along the channels. Finally, total resistance, total power consumption and specific energy consumption were computed. Several simulations were carried out by changing the operating conditions and the stack features. Simulation results showed a good agreement with experimental findings as obtained from the literature, demonstrating that the model is able to adequately capture the phenomenological description of the ED process

Analysis of biochemical networks using linear programming

The application of mathematical programming methodologies to biochemical systems is demonstrated with the presentation of a linear programming (LP) algorithm for calculating minimal pathway distances in biochemical networks. Minimal pathway distances are identified as the smallest number of steps separating two nodes in the network. Two case studies are examined: 1) the minimal distances for Escherichia coli Small Molecule Metabolism (SMM) enzymes are calculated and their correlations with genome distance and enzyme function are considered; 2) a study of the p53 cell cycle and apoptosis control network is performed in order to assess the survivability of the network to both random node failures and a directed assault, by studying the modification of the network’s diameter for successive protein knockouts. The results verify the applicability of the algorithm to problems of biochemical nature