37 research outputs found

    ΠœΠ°Ρ‚Π΅ΠΌΠ°Ρ‚ΠΈΡ‡Π΅ΡΠΊΠ°Ρ модСль ΠΎΠ΄Π½ΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡŒΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Ρ‚Π΅Π»ΡŒΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΡŒΡŽΡ‚Π΅Ρ€Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΈΠ³Ρ€Ρ‹, воспроизводящСй Π΄ΡƒΡΠ»ΡŒΠ½Ρ‹ΠΉ Π±ΠΎΠΉ Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ²

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    In improving computer games, which reproduce a battle of tanks, two tasks can be distinguished: increasing a collection of game tools to represent virtual prototypes of real tank models and ensuring a realistic game. To solve these problems, a tool is necessary that allows us to compare gaming capabilities of virtual tank brands with combat capabilities of their real prototypes. A mathematical model of a computer game that reproduces a duel battle of tanks can be used as the tool. The specified model satisfies the following requirements: the sequence of operations reproduced in the model is in line with the sequence of operations implemented by the player in the course of the game; the maximum amount of ammunition that a tank can use in a model must correspond to the amount of tank ammunition. The duel lasts until one of the tanks is hit, or until all the gunshots available to hit the enemy are expended. It is necessary to find the probabilities of possible outcomes of a duel battle, the mathematical expectation of its duration, the mathematical expectation of the ammunition consumption of each side.The solution to the problem is obtained by constructing a mathematical model according to the scheme of Markov random process with discrete states and continuous time. It is implemented as a program for a model of a duel battle of tanks and can be used when developing a computer game of the genre of tank simulators to assess the gaming capabilities of the virtual tanks in a duel battle from the data on the amount of their ammunition and on the intensity of the game process transition from one state to another; for selecting the intensity values of the game process transition from one state to another, based on the data on the estimated game capabilities of virtual tanks in a duel battle. Thus, game participants can use this model to conduct their own research. Developers of computer games can use it for setting up the game and setting such intensity values of the game process transition from one state to another, at which the gaming capabilities of virtual tanks will correspond to the combat capabilities of their real prototypes on the battlefield.Π’ ΡΠΎΠ²Π΅Ρ€ΡˆΠ΅Π½ΡΡ‚Π²ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠΈ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΡŒΡŽΡ‚Π΅Ρ€Π½Ρ‹Ρ… ΠΈΠ³Ρ€, воспроизводящих Π±ΠΎΠΉ Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ², ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎ Π²Ρ‹Π΄Π΅Π»ΠΈΡ‚ΡŒ Π΄Π²Π΅ Π·Π°Π΄Π°Ρ‡ΠΈ: ΡƒΠ²Π΅Π»ΠΈΡ‡Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΊΠΎΠ»Π»Π΅ΠΊΡ†ΠΈΠΈ ΠΈΠ³Ρ€ΠΎΠ²Ρ‹Ρ… срСдств, ΠΏΡ€Π΅Π΄ΡΡ‚Π°Π²Π»ΡΡŽΡ‰ΠΈΡ… собой Π²ΠΈΡ€Ρ‚ΡƒΠ°Π»ΡŒΠ½Ρ‹Π΅ ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΡ‚ΠΎΡ‚ΠΈΠΏΡ‹ Ρ€Π΅Π°Π»ΡŒΠ½Ρ‹Ρ… ΠΎΠ±Ρ€Π°Π·Ρ†ΠΎΠ² Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ²; обСспСчСнии рСалистичности ΠΈΠ³Ρ€Ρ‹. Для Ρ€Π΅ΡˆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ этих Π·Π°Π΄Π°Ρ‡ Π½Π΅ΠΎΠ±Ρ…ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΌ инструмСнт, ΠΏΠΎΠ·Π²ΠΎΠ»ΡΡŽΡ‰ΠΈΠΉ ΡΠΎΠΏΠΎΡΡ‚Π°Π²ΠΈΡ‚ΡŒ ΠΈΠ³Ρ€ΠΎΠ²Ρ‹Π΅ возмоТности Π²ΠΈΡ€Ρ‚ΡƒΠ°Π»ΡŒΠ½Ρ‹Ρ… ΠΌΠ°Ρ€ΠΎΠΊ Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ² с Π±ΠΎΠ΅Π²Ρ‹ΠΌΠΈ возмоТностями ΠΈΡ… Ρ€Π΅Π°Π»ΡŒΠ½Ρ‹Ρ… ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΡ‚ΠΎΡ‚ΠΈΠΏΠΎΠ², Π² качСствС ΠΊΠΎΡ‚ΠΎΡ€ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎ ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡŒΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Ρ‚ΡŒ ΠΌΠ°Ρ‚Π΅ΠΌΠ°Ρ‚ΠΈΡ‡Π΅ΡΠΊΡƒΡŽ модСль ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΡŒΡŽΡ‚Π΅Ρ€Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΈΠ³Ρ€Ρ‹, Π²ΠΎΡΠΏΡ€ΠΎΠΈΠ·Π²ΠΎΠ΄ΡΡ‰ΡƒΡŽ Π΄ΡƒΡΠ»ΡŒΠ½Ρ‹ΠΉ Π±ΠΎΠΉ Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ². Указанная модСль удовлСтворяСт ΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΡƒΡŽΡ‰ΠΈΠΌ трСбованиям: ΠΏΠΎΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π°Ρ‚Π΅Π»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎΡΡ‚ΡŒ ΠΎΠΏΠ΅Ρ€Π°Ρ†ΠΈΠΉ, воспроизводимых Π² ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ, соотвСтствуСт ΠΏΠΎΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π°Ρ‚Π΅Π»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎΡΡ‚ΠΈ ΠΎΠΏΠ΅Ρ€Π°Ρ†ΠΈΠΉ, Ρ€Π΅Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·ΡƒΠ΅ΠΌΡ‹Ρ… ΠΈΠ³Ρ€ΠΎΠΊΠΎΠΌ Π² процСссС ΠΈΠ³Ρ€Ρ‹; максимальноС количСство боСприпасов, ΠΊΠΎΡ‚ΠΎΡ€ΠΎΠ΅ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅Ρ‚ ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡŒΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Ρ‚ΡŒΡΡ Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠΌ Π² ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ, Π΄ΠΎΠ»ΠΆΠ½ΠΎ ΡΠΎΠΎΡ‚Π²Π΅Ρ‚ΡΡ‚Π²ΠΎΠ²Π°Ρ‚ΡŒ Ρ€Π°Π·ΠΌΠ΅Ρ€Ρƒ Π±ΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡ‚Π° Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠ°. Π”ΡƒΡΠ»ΡŒ продолТаСтся Π΄ΠΎ Ρ‚Π΅Ρ… ΠΏΠΎΡ€, ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ° Π½Π΅ Π±ΡƒΠ΄Π΅Ρ‚ ΠΏΠΎΡ€Π°ΠΆΡ‘Π½ ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠ½ ΠΈΠ· Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ², ΠΈΠ»ΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ° Π½Π΅ Π±ΡƒΠ΄ΡƒΡ‚ израсходованы всС ΠΈΠΌΠ΅ΡŽΡ‰ΠΈΠ΅ΡΡ для пораТСния ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΡ‚ΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ° ΠΏΡƒΡˆΠ΅Ρ‡Π½Ρ‹Π΅ выстрСлы. НСобходимо Π½Π°ΠΉΡ‚ΠΈ вСроятности Π²ΠΎΠ·ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½Ρ‹Ρ… исходов Π΄ΡƒΡΠ»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ боя, матСматичСскоС ΠΎΠΆΠΈΠ΄Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ Π΅Π³ΠΎ ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ»ΠΆΠΈΡ‚Π΅Π»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎΡΡ‚ΠΈ, матСматичСскоС ΠΎΠΆΠΈΠ΄Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ расхода боСприпасов ΠΊΠ°ΠΆΠ΄ΠΎΠΉ ΠΈΠ· сторон.РСшСниС Π·Π°Π΄Π°Ρ‡ΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡƒΡ‡Π΅Π½ΠΎ ΠΏΡƒΡ‚Ρ‘ΠΌ построСния матСматичСской ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ ΠΏΠΎ схСмС ΠœΠ°Ρ€ΠΊΠΎΠ²ΡΠΊΠΎΠ³ΠΎ случайного процСсса с дискрСтными состояниями ΠΈ Π½Π΅ΠΏΡ€Π΅Ρ€Ρ‹Π²Π½Ρ‹ΠΌ Π²Ρ€Π΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅ΠΌ. Π Π΅Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ Π² Π²ΠΈΠ΄Π΅ ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΠ³Ρ€Π°ΠΌΠΌΡ‹ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ Π΄ΡƒΡΠ»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ боя Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ² ΠΈ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅Ρ‚ Π±Ρ‹Ρ‚ΡŒ использовано ΠΏΡ€ΠΈ Ρ€Π°Π·Ρ€Π°Π±ΠΎΡ‚ΠΊΠ΅ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΡŒΡŽΡ‚Π΅Ρ€Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΈΠ³Ρ€Ρ‹ ΠΆΠ°Π½Ρ€Π° Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ²Ρ‹Ρ… симуляторов для ΠΎΡ†Π΅Π½ΠΊΠΈ ΠΈΠ³Ρ€ΠΎΠ²Ρ‹Ρ… возмоТностСй Π²ΠΈΡ€Ρ‚ΡƒΠ°Π»ΡŒΠ½Ρ‹Ρ… Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ² Π² Π΄ΡƒΡΠ»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎΠΌ бою ΠΏΠΎ Π΄Π°Π½Π½Ρ‹ΠΌ ΠΎ Ρ€Π°Π·ΠΌΠ΅Ρ€Π°Ρ… ΠΈΡ… Π±ΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡ‚ΠΎΠ² ΠΈ интСнсивностях ΠΏΠ΅Ρ€Π΅Ρ…ΠΎΠ΄Π° ΠΈΠ³Ρ€ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ процСсса ΠΈΠ· ΠΎΠ΄Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ состояния Π² Π΄Ρ€ΡƒΠ³ΠΎΠ΅; для ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Π±ΠΎΡ€Π° Π·Π½Π°Ρ‡Π΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ интСнсивностСй ΠΏΠ΅Ρ€Π΅Ρ…ΠΎΠ΄Π° ΠΈΠ³Ρ€ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ процСсса ΠΈΠ· ΠΎΠ΄Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ состояния Π² Π΄Ρ€ΡƒΠ³ΠΎΠ΅, исходя ΠΈΠ· Π΄Π°Π½Π½Ρ‹Ρ… ΠΎ ΠΏΡ€Π΅Π΄ΠΏΠΎΠ»Π°Π³Π°Π΅ΠΌΡ‹Ρ… ΠΈΠ³Ρ€ΠΎΠ²Ρ‹Ρ… возмоТностях Π²ΠΈΡ€Ρ‚ΡƒΠ°Π»ΡŒΠ½Ρ‹Ρ… Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ² Π² Π΄ΡƒΡΠ»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎΠΌ бою. Π’Π°ΠΊΠΈΠΌ ΠΎΠ±Ρ€Π°Π·ΠΎΠΌ, данная модСль ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅Ρ‚ Π±Ρ‹Ρ‚ΡŒ использована участниками ΠΈΠ³Ρ€Ρ‹ для провСдСния собствСнных исслСдований; Ρ€Π°Π·Ρ€Π°Π±ΠΎΡ‚Ρ‡ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΠΌΠΈ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΡŒΡŽΡ‚Π΅Ρ€Π½Ρ‹Ρ… ΠΈΠ³Ρ€, для настройки ΠΈΠ³Ρ€Ρ‹, задания Ρ‚Π°ΠΊΠΈΡ… Π·Π½Π°Ρ‡Π΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ интСнсивностСй ΠΏΠ΅Ρ€Π΅Ρ…ΠΎΠ΄Π° ΠΈΠ³Ρ€ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ процСсса ΠΈΠ· ΠΎΠ΄Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ состояния Π² Π΄Ρ€ΡƒΠ³ΠΈΠ΅, ΠΏΡ€ΠΈ ΠΊΠΎΡ‚ΠΎΡ€Ρ‹Ρ… ΠΈΠ³Ρ€ΠΎΠ²Ρ‹Π΅ возмоТности Π²ΠΈΡ€Ρ‚ΡƒΠ°Π»ΡŒΠ½Ρ‹Ρ… Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ², Π±ΡƒΠ΄ΡƒΡ‚ ΡΠΎΠΎΡ‚Π²Π΅Ρ‚ΡΡ‚Π²ΠΎΠ²Π°Ρ‚ΡŒ Π±ΠΎΠ΅Π²Ρ‹ΠΌ возмоТностям ΠΈΡ… Ρ€Π΅Π°Π»ΡŒΠ½Ρ‹Ρ… ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΡ‚ΠΎΡ‚ΠΈΠΏΠΎΠ² Π½Π° ΠΏΠΎΠ»Π΅ боя

    ИспользованиС матСматичСских ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ ΠΏΡ€ΠΈ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π΅ событий ΠΈΠ· Π²ΠΎΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ истории

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    One of the ways of knowing the events of military history is to reproduce them using mathematical models. Based on the analysis of the fighting operations of the 4th Panzer Brigade of the Red Army in the vicinity of the city of Mtsensk in early October 1941, the capability to provide mathematical modeling of the fragments of these combat operations and the application of the apparatus of Markov random processes for these purposes is substantiated.The effectiveness of tanks depends not only on their technical properties, but also on the ways they are used on the battlefield. At the same time, combat effectiveness of tanks is commonly understood as their effectiveness in conditions when the methods of conducting combat operations by each of the opposing sides are the best.The battle outcome is probabilistic. It has certain regularity, depending on the combat tactics. The battle can be imagined as a multitude of randomly dueling fights between tanks, differing in their location and range of fire. A study of the probability of a system transition from each transient state to the next leads to the construction of mathematical models that allow calculating the ratio of losses of opposing sides.Based on the facts of military history and discovered regularities, the mathematical models are constructed to allow reproducing various fragments of combat according to the scheme of the Markov random process, and on their basis calculations are performed. The dependence of the ratio of the losses of the opposing sides depending on the number of firing positions used by the ambush tanks was established, provided that the change of these positions was made imperceptibly for the enemy.The obtained results can be used to develop tactical methods of using tanks in antiterrorist operations.Один ΠΈΠ· способов познания событий Π²ΠΎΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ истории, состоит Π² ΠΈΡ… воспроизвСдСнии ΠΏΡ€ΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠΌΠΎΡ‰ΠΈ матСматичСских ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ. На основС Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π° Π±ΠΎΠ΅Π²Ρ‹Ρ… дСйствий 4 Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠΉ Π±Ρ€ΠΈΠ³Π°Π΄Ρ‹ ΠšΡ€Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Армии Π² Ρ€Π°ΠΉΠΎΠ½Π΅ Π³ΠΎΡ€ΠΎΠ΄Π° ΠœΡ†Π΅Π½ΡΠΊΠ° Π² Π½Π°Ρ‡Π°Π»Π΅ октября 1941 Π³., обоснована Π²ΠΎΠ·ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎΡΡ‚ΡŒ матСматичСского модСлирования Ρ„Ρ€Π°Π³ΠΌΠ΅Π½Ρ‚ΠΎΠ² этих Π±ΠΎΠ΅Π²Ρ‹Ρ… дСйствий ΠΈ примСнСния для этих Ρ†Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ Π°ΠΏΠΏΠ°Ρ€Π°Ρ‚Π° марковских случайных процСссов.Π­Ρ„Ρ„Π΅ΠΊΡ‚ΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡ‚ΡŒ Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ² зависит Π½Π΅ Ρ‚ΠΎΠ»ΡŒΠΊΠΎ ΠΎΡ‚ ΠΈΡ… тСхничСских свойств, Π½ΠΎ ΠΈ ΠΎΡ‚ способов ΠΈΡ… примСнСния Π½Π° ΠΏΠΎΠ»Π΅ боя. ΠŸΡ€ΠΈ этом ΠΏΠΎΠ΄ Π±ΠΎΠ΅Π²ΠΎΠΉ ΡΡ„Ρ„Π΅ΠΊΡ‚ΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡ‚ΡŒΡŽ Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ² ΠΎΠ±Ρ‹Ρ‡Π½ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠ½ΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡŽΡ‚ ΠΈΡ… ΡΡ„Ρ„Π΅ΠΊΡ‚ΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡ‚ΡŒ Π² условиях, ΠΊΠΎΠ³Π΄Π° способы вСдСния Π±ΠΎΠ΅Π²Ρ‹Ρ… дСйствий ΠΊΠ°ΠΆΠ΄ΠΎΠΉ ΠΈΠ· ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΡ‚ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΠ΄Π΅ΠΉΡΡ‚Π²ΡƒΡŽΡ‰ΠΈΡ… сторон ΡΠ²Π»ΡΡŽΡ‚ΡΡ Π½Π°ΠΈΠ»ΡƒΡ‡ΡˆΠΈΠΌΠΈ.Π Π΅Π·ΡƒΠ»ΡŒΡ‚Π°Ρ‚ боя β€” это Ρ€Π΅Π·ΡƒΠ»ΡŒΡ‚Π°Ρ‚ вСроятностный, ΠΈΠΌΠ΅ΡŽΡ‰ΠΈΠΉ Π½Π΅ΠΊΡƒΡŽ Π·Π°ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠ΅Ρ€Π½ΠΎΡΡ‚ΡŒ, Π·Π°Π²ΠΈΡΡΡ‰ΡƒΡŽ ΠΎΡ‚ Ρ‚Π°ΠΊΡ‚ΠΈΠΊΠΈ Π±ΠΎΠ΅Π²Ρ‹Ρ… дСйствий. Π‘ΠΎΠΉ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎ ΠΏΡ€Π΅Π΄ΡΡ‚Π°Π²ΠΈΡ‚ΡŒ, ΠΊΠ°ΠΊ мноТСство Π²ΠΎΠ·Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ°Π²ΡˆΠΈΡ… случайным ΠΎΠ±Ρ€Π°Π·ΠΎΠΌ Π΄ΡƒΡΠ»ΡŒΠ½Ρ‹Ρ… Π±ΠΎΠ΅Π² ΠΌΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Ρƒ Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠ°ΠΌΠΈ, Ρ€Π°Π·Π»ΠΈΡ‡Π°Π²ΡˆΠΈΡ…ΡΡ ΠΏΠΎ мСсту ΠΈΡ… располоТСния ΠΈ Π΄Π°Π»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎΡΡ‚ΡΠΌ вСдСния огня. Π˜Π·ΡƒΡ‡Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ вСроятности ΠΏΠ΅Ρ€Π΅Ρ…ΠΎΠ΄Π° систСмы ΠΈΠ· ΠΊΠ°ΠΆΠ΄ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π½Π΅Π²ΠΎΠ·Π²Ρ€Π°Ρ‚Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ состояния Π² ΠΏΠΎΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΡƒΡŽΡ‰ΠΈΠ΅, ΠΏΡ€ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡ‚ ΠΊ ΠΏΠΎΡΡ‚Ρ€ΠΎΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡŽ матСматичСских ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ, ΠΏΠΎΠ·Π²ΠΎΠ»ΡΡŽΡ‰ΠΈΡ… Ρ€Π°ΡΡΡ‡ΠΈΡ‚Π°Ρ‚ΡŒ ΡΠΎΠΎΡ‚Π½ΠΎΡˆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΏΠΎΡ‚Π΅Ρ€ΡŒ ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΡ‚ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΠ΄Π΅ΠΉΡΡ‚Π²ΡƒΡŽΡ‰ΠΈΡ… сторон.ΠžΠΏΠΈΡ€Π°ΡΡΡŒ Π½Π° Ρ„Π°ΠΊΡ‚Ρ‹ Π²ΠΎΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ истории ΠΈ ΠΎΠ±Π½Π°Ρ€ΡƒΠΆΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ‹Π΅ закономСрности, построСны матСматичСскиС ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ, ΠΏΠΎΠ·Π²ΠΎΠ»ΡΡŽΡ‰ΠΈΠ΅ воспроизвСсти Ρ€Π°Π·Π»ΠΈΡ‡Π½Ρ‹Π΅ Ρ„Ρ€Π°Π³ΠΌΠ΅Π½Ρ‚Ρ‹ боя ΠΏΠΎ схСмС марковского случайного процСсса, ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΠ²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½Ρ‹ расчСты ΠΏΠΎ Π½ΠΈΠΌ. УстановлСна Π·Π°Π²ΠΈΡΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡ‚ΡŒ ΡΠΎΠΎΡ‚Π½ΠΎΡˆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΏΠΎΡ‚Π΅Ρ€ΡŒ ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΡ‚ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΠ΄Π΅ΠΉΡΡ‚Π²ΡƒΡŽΡ‰ΠΈΡ… сторон Π² зависимости ΠΎΡ‚ количСства ΠΎΠ³Π½Π΅Π²Ρ‹Ρ… ΠΏΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡ†ΠΈΠΉ, ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡŒΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ‹Ρ… Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠ°ΠΌΠΈ, ΡΡ‚ΠΎΡΠ²ΡˆΠΈΠΌ Π² засадС, ΠΏΡ€ΠΈ условии, Ρ‡Ρ‚ΠΎ смСна этих ΠΏΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡ†ΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΠΈΠ·Π²ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠ»Π°ΡΡŒ Π½Π΅Π·Π°ΠΌΠ΅Ρ‚Π½ΠΎ для ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΡ‚ΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ°.ΠŸΠΎΠ»ΡƒΡ‡Π΅Π½Π½Ρ‹Π΅ Ρ€Π΅Π·ΡƒΠ»ΡŒΡ‚Π°Ρ‚Ρ‹ ΠΌΠΎΠ³ΡƒΡ‚ Π±Ρ‹Ρ‚ΡŒ ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡŒΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Ρ‹ ΠΏΡ€ΠΈ Ρ€Π°Π·Ρ€Π°Π±ΠΎΡ‚ΠΊΠ΅ тактичСских ΠΏΡ€ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌΠΎΠ² примСнСния Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ² Π² антитСррористичСских опСрациях

    Анализ событий ΠΈΠ· истории Π’Π΅Π»ΠΈΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΠžΡ‚Π΅Ρ‡Π΅ΡΡ‚Π²Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ Π²ΠΎΠΉΠ½Ρ‹ ΠΌΠ΅Ρ‚ΠΎΠ΄Π°ΠΌΠΈ матСматичСского модСлирования

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    When fighting against terrorism in modern armed conflicts, combat vehicles, including tanks, are widely used. To minimise own losses of vehicles and personnel for overthrowing enemy is a relevant task. To solve it, the paper considers certain events in the history of the Great Patriotic War, which are associated with battle of tanks that spring an ambush. A mathematical model of the battle is built. The state graph of the system is given. Using this graph, a probability of tank kills and a ratio of mathematical expectations of losses have been calculated. This mathematical model generalizes the models, previously published in this journal, based on the Markov chain apparatus. The paper gives an example of calculations for this model in the particular case in which experimental data are used as a basis. The ratios of mathematical expectations of losses of the warring parties are obtained. Further, we consider the mathematical models, in which it is assumed that probabilities for tank crews to provide operations of targets detection in firing are known. With technology development and its mathematical support it becomes increasingly more real. The formulas to obtain the probability of tank kills are given according to the graph of states using the known probabilities of transition from one state to another. In each of the three mathematical models under consideration there is a graph of the system state, which allows calculation of the tank kills probability. We have analysed the models to prove a significant dependence of the loss ratio of the warring parties on the number of firing positions used by the tank in ambush in case re-siting is unnoticeable for the enemy. The authors-considered models that use the examples of historical events confirm that the tactics of organising and conducting ambushes in tank battles can be successfully used nowadays, when the technology intensiveness of the opposing forces significantly grows. The obtained results can be applied to organise and conduct tank ambushes in modern armed conflicts and fight against terrorist army.ΠŸΡ€ΠΈ Π±ΠΎΡ€ΡŒΠ±Π΅ с Ρ‚Π΅Ρ€Ρ€ΠΎΡ€ΠΈΠ·ΠΌΠΎΠΌ Π² соврСмСнных Π²ΠΎΠΎΡ€ΡƒΠΆΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ‹Ρ… ΠΊΠΎΠ½Ρ„Π»ΠΈΠΊΡ‚Π°Ρ… ΡˆΠΈΡ€ΠΎΠΊΠΎ ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡŒΠ·ΡƒΡŽΡ‚ΡΡ Π±ΠΎΠ΅Π²Ρ‹Π΅ ΠΌΠ°ΡˆΠΈΠ½Ρ‹, ΠΈ Π² Ρ‚ΠΎΠΌ числС Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΈ. АктуалСн вопрос ΠΌΠΈΠ½ΠΈΠΌΠΈΠ·Π°Ρ†ΠΈΠΈ собствСнных ΠΏΠΎΡ‚Π΅Ρ€ΡŒ Π΅Π΄ΠΈΠ½ΠΈΡ† Ρ‚Π΅Ρ…Π½ΠΈΠΊΠΈ ΠΈ Π»ΠΈΡ‡Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ состава ΠΏΡ€ΠΈ Ρ€Π°Π·Π³Ρ€ΠΎΠΌΠ΅ ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΡ‚ΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ°. Для Ρ€Π΅ΡˆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ этой Π·Π°Π΄Π°Ρ‡ΠΈ Π² ΡΡ‚Π°Ρ‚ΡŒΠ΅ рассмотрСны ΠΎΡ‚Π΄Π΅Π»ΡŒΠ½Ρ‹Π΅ события истории Π’Π΅Π»ΠΈΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΠžΡ‚Π΅Ρ‡Π΅ΡΡ‚Π²Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ Π²ΠΎΠΉΠ½Ρ‹, ΠΊΠΎΡ‚ΠΎΡ€Ρ‹Π΅ связаны с дСйствиями Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ² ΠΈΠ· засад. ΠŸΠΎΡΡ‚Ρ€ΠΎΠ΅Π½Π° матСматичСская модСль боя. ΠŸΡ€ΠΈΠ²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½ Π³Ρ€Π°Ρ„ состояния систСмы. Π˜ΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡŒΠ·ΡƒΡ ΠΏΡ€ΠΈΠ²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½Π½Ρ‹ΠΉ Π³Ρ€Π°Ρ„, рассчитаны вСроятности пораТСния Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ² ΠΈ ΡΠΎΠΎΡ‚Π½ΠΎΡˆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ матСматичСских ΠΎΠΆΠΈΠ΄Π°Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΡ‚Π΅Ρ€ΡŒ. Данная матСматичСская модСль ΠΎΠ±ΠΎΠ±Ρ‰Π°Π΅Ρ‚ Ρ€Π°Π½Π΅Π΅ ΠΎΠΏΡƒΠ±Π»ΠΈΠΊΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ‹Π΅ Π² Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΠΎΠΌ ΠΆΡƒΡ€Π½Π°Π»Π΅ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ, построСнныС с использованиСм Π°ΠΏΠΏΠ°Ρ€Π°Ρ‚Π° Ρ†Π΅ΠΏΠ΅ΠΉ ΠœΠ°Ρ€ΠΊΠΎΠ²Π°. ΠŸΡ€ΠΈΠ²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½ ΠΏΡ€ΠΈΠΌΠ΅Ρ€ расчётов ΠΏΠΎ этой ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ Π² частном случаС, Π² ΠΊΠΎΡ‚ΠΎΡ€ΠΎΠΌ Π·Π° основу взяты ΡΠΊΡΠΏΠ΅Ρ€ΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½Ρ‚Π°Π»ΡŒΠ½Ρ‹Π΅ Π΄Π°Π½Π½Ρ‹Π΅. ΠŸΠΎΠ»ΡƒΡ‡Π΅Π½Ρ‹ ΡΠΎΠΎΡ‚Π½ΠΎΡˆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ матСматичСских ΠΎΠΆΠΈΠ΄Π°Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΡ‚Π΅Ρ€ΡŒ ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΡ‚ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΠ±ΠΎΡ€ΡΡ‚Π²ΡƒΡŽΡ‰ΠΈΡ… сторон. Π”Π°Π»Π΅Π΅ Π°Π²Ρ‚ΠΎΡ€Π°ΠΌΠΈ рассмотрСны матСматичСскиС ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ, Π² ΠΊΠΎΡ‚ΠΎΡ€Ρ‹Ρ… ΠΏΡ€Π΅Π΄ΠΏΠΎΠ»Π°Π³Π°ΡŽΡ‚ΡΡ извСстными вСроятности выполнСния экипаТами Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ² ΠΎΠΏΠ΅Ρ€Π°Ρ†ΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠΎ ΠΎΠ±Π½Π°Ρ€ΡƒΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡŽ Ρ†Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ Π² процСссС ΡΡ‚Ρ€Π΅Π»ΡŒΠ±Ρ‹. Π‘ Ρ€Π°Π·Π²ΠΈΡ‚ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ Ρ‚Π΅Ρ…Π½ΠΈΠΊΠΈ ΠΈ Π΅Ρ‘ матСматичСском обСспСчСнии это ΡΡ‚Π°Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ‚ΡŒΡΡ всС Π±ΠΎΠ»Π΅Π΅ Ρ€Π΅Π°Π»ΡŒΠ½Ρ‹ΠΌ. По ΠΏΡ€ΠΈΠ²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΌΡƒ Π² Π³Ρ€Π°Ρ„Ρƒ состояний с использованиСм извСстных вСроятностСй ΠΏΠ΅Ρ€Π΅Ρ…ΠΎΠ΄Π° ΠΈΠ· ΠΎΠ΄Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ состояния Π² Π΄Ρ€ΡƒΠ³ΠΎΠ΅, ΠΏΡ€ΠΈΠ²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½Ρ‹ Ρ„ΠΎΡ€ΠΌΡƒΠ»Ρ‹ получСния вСроятности пораТСния Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ². Π’ ΠΊΠ°ΠΆΠ΄ΠΎΠΉ ΠΈΠ· Ρ‚Ρ€Π΅Ρ… рассмотрСнных матСматичСских ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ ΠΏΡ€ΠΈΠ²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½ Π³Ρ€Π°Ρ„ состояния систСмы, ΠΏΠΎΠ·Π²ΠΎΠ»ΡΡŽΡ‰ΠΈΠΉ Π²Ρ‹Ρ‡ΠΈΡΠ»ΠΈΡ‚ΡŒ вСроятности пораТСния Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ². ΠŸΡ€ΠΎΠ²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ· ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ, ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Ρ‚Π²Π΅Ρ€ΠΆΠ΄Π°ΡŽΡ‰ΠΈΠΉ ΡΡƒΡ‰Π΅ΡΡ‚Π²Π΅Π½Π½ΡƒΡŽ Π·Π°Π²ΠΈΡΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡ‚ΡŒ ΡΠΎΠΎΡ‚Π½ΠΎΡˆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΏΠΎΡ‚Π΅Ρ€ΡŒ ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΡ‚ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΠ΄Π΅ΠΉΡΡ‚Π²ΡƒΡŽΡ‰ΠΈΡ… сторон ΠΎΡ‚ количСства ΠΎΠ³Π½Π΅Π²Ρ‹Ρ… ΠΏΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡ†ΠΈΠΉ, ΠΊΠΎΡ‚ΠΎΡ€Ρ‹Π΅ ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡŒΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Ρ‹ Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠΌ Π² засадС Π² случаС, Ссли смСна этих ΠΏΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡ†ΠΈΠΉ производится Π½Π΅Π·Π°ΠΌΠ΅Ρ‚Π½ΠΎ для ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΡ‚ΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ°. РассмотрСнныС Π°Π²Ρ‚ΠΎΡ€Π°ΠΌΠΈ Π² ΡΡ‚Π°Ρ‚ΡŒΠ΅ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ Π½Π° ΠΏΡ€ΠΈΠΌΠ΅Ρ€Π°Ρ… историчСских событий ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Ρ‚Π²Π΅Ρ€ΠΆΠ΄Π°ΡŽΡ‚, Ρ‡Ρ‚ΠΎ Ρ‚Π°ΠΊΡ‚ΠΈΠΊΠ° ΠΎΡ€Π³Π°Π½ΠΈΠ·Π°Ρ†ΠΈΠΈ ΠΈ провСдСния засад ΠΏΡ€ΠΈ Π²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½ΠΈΠΈ Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ²Ρ‹Ρ… Π±ΠΎΠ΅Π², ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅Ρ‚ Π±Ρ‹Ρ‚ΡŒ ΡƒΡΠΏΠ΅ΡˆΠ½ΠΎ использована ΠΈ Π² нашС врСмя, ΠΊΠΎΠ³Π΄Π° Π·Π½Π°Ρ‡ΠΈΡ‚Π΅Π»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎ вырастаСт тСхничСская ΠΎΡΠ½Π°Ρ‰Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡ‚ΡŒ ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΡ‚ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΠ±ΠΎΡ€ΡΡ‚Π²ΡƒΡŽΡ‰ΠΈΡ… сил. ΠŸΠΎΠ»ΡƒΡ‡Π΅Π½Π½Ρ‹Π΅ Ρ€Π΅Π·ΡƒΠ»ΡŒΡ‚Π°Ρ‚Ρ‹ ΠΌΠΎΠ³ΡƒΡ‚ Π±Ρ‹Ρ‚ΡŒ ΠΏΡ€ΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½Ρ‹ ΠΏΡ€ΠΈ ΠΎΡ€Π³Π°Π½ΠΈΠ·Π°Ρ†ΠΈΠΈ ΠΈ ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΠ²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½ΠΈΠΈ Ρ‚Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ²Ρ‹Ρ… засад Π² соврСмСнных Π²ΠΎΠΎΡ€ΡƒΠΆΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ‹Ρ… ΠΊΠΎΠ½Ρ„Π»ΠΈΠΊΡ‚Π°Ρ… ΠΈ Π±ΠΎΡ€ΡŒΠ±Π΅ с тСррористичСскими формированиями

    LINE-1 retrotransposon methylation in chorionic villi of first trimester miscarriages with aneuploidy

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    Purpose High frequency of aneuploidy in meiosis and cleavage stage coincides with waves of epigenetic genome reprogramming that may indicate a possible association between epigenetic mechanisms and aneuploidy occurrence. This study aimed to assess the methylation level of the long interspersed repeat element 1 (LINE-1) retrotransposon in chorionic villi of first trimester miscarriages with a normal karyotype and aneuploidy. Methods The methylation level was assessed at 19 LINE-1 promoter CpG sites in chorionic villi of 141 miscarriages with trisomy of chromosomes 2, 6, 8-10, 13-15, 16, 18, 20-22, and monosomy X using massive parallel sequencing. Results The LINE-1 methylation level was elevated statistically significant in chorionic villi of miscarriages with both trisomy (45.2 +/- 4.3%) and monosomy X (46.9 +/- 4.2%) compared with that in induced abortions (40.0 +/- 2.4%) (p < 0.00001). The LINE-1 methylation levels were specific for miscarriages with different aneuploidies and significantly increased in miscarriages with trisomies 8, 14, and 18 and monosomy X (p < 0.05). The LINE-1 methylation level increased with gestational age both for group of miscarriages regardless of karyotype (R = 0.21, p = 0.012) and specifically for miscarriages with trisomy 16 (R = 0.48, p = 0.007). LINE-1 methylation decreased with maternal age in miscarriages with a normal karyotype (R = - 0.31, p = 0.029) and with trisomy 21 (R = - 0.64, p = 0.024) and increased with paternal age for miscarriages with trisomy 16 (R = 0.38, p = 0.048) and monosomy X (R = 0.73, p = 0.003). Conclusion Our results indicate that the pathogenic effects of aneuploidy in human embryogenesis can be supplemented with significant epigenetic changes in the repetitive sequences

    Mathematical Single-Player Computer Game Model to Reproduce Duel Fight of Tanks

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    In improving computer games, which reproduce a battle of tanks, two tasks can be distinguished: increasing a collection of game tools to represent virtual prototypes of real tank models and ensuring a realistic game. To solve these problems, a tool is necessary that allows us to compare gaming capabilities of virtual tank brands with combat capabilities of their real prototypes. A mathematical model of a computer game that reproduces a duel battle of tanks can be used as the tool. The specified model satisfies the following requirements: the sequence of operations reproduced in the model is in line with the sequence of operations implemented by the player in the course of the game; the maximum amount of ammunition that a tank can use in a model must correspond to the amount of tank ammunition. The duel lasts until one of the tanks is hit, or until all the gunshots available to hit the enemy are expended. It is necessary to find the probabilities of possible outcomes of a duel battle, the mathematical expectation of its duration, the mathematical expectation of the ammunition consumption of each side.The solution to the problem is obtained by constructing a mathematical model according to the scheme of Markov random process with discrete states and continuous time. It is implemented as a program for a model of a duel battle of tanks and can be used when developing a computer game of the genre of tank simulators to assess the gaming capabilities of the virtual tanks in a duel battle from the data on the amount of their ammunition and on the intensity of the game process transition from one state to another; for selecting the intensity values of the game process transition from one state to another, based on the data on the estimated game capabilities of virtual tanks in a duel battle. Thus, game participants can use this model to conduct their own research. Developers of computer games can use it for setting up the game and setting such intensity values of the game process transition from one state to another, at which the gaming capabilities of virtual tanks will correspond to the combat capabilities of their real prototypes on the battlefield

    Mathematical Modeling-based Analysis from the Great Patriotic War Events

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    When fighting against terrorism in modern armed conflicts, combat vehicles, including tanks, are widely used. To minimise own losses of vehicles and personnel for overthrowing enemy is a relevant task. To solve it, the paper considers certain events in the history of the Great Patriotic War, which are associated with battle of tanks that spring an ambush. A mathematical model of the battle is built. The state graph of the system is given. Using this graph, a probability of tank kills and a ratio of mathematical expectations of losses have been calculated. This mathematical model generalizes the models, previously published in this journal, based on the Markov chain apparatus. The paper gives an example of calculations for this model in the particular case in which experimental data are used as a basis. The ratios of mathematical expectations of losses of the warring parties are obtained. Further, we consider the mathematical models, in which it is assumed that probabilities for tank crews to provide operations of targets detection in firing are known. With technology development and its mathematical support it becomes increasingly more real. The formulas to obtain the probability of tank kills are given according to the graph of states using the known probabilities of transition from one state to another. In each of the three mathematical models under consideration there is a graph of the system state, which allows calculation of the tank kills probability. We have analysed the models to prove a significant dependence of the loss ratio of the warring parties on the number of firing positions used by the tank in ambush in case re-siting is unnoticeable for the enemy. The authors-considered models that use the examples of historical events confirm that the tactics of organising and conducting ambushes in tank battles can be successfully used nowadays, when the technology intensiveness of the opposing forces significantly grows. The obtained results can be applied to organise and conduct tank ambushes in modern armed conflicts and fight against terrorist army

    Using Mathematical Models in Event Analysis from Military History

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    One of the ways of knowing the events of military history is to reproduce them using mathematical models. Based on the analysis of the fighting operations of the 4th Panzer Brigade of the Red Army in the vicinity of the city of Mtsensk in early October 1941, the capability to provide mathematical modeling of the fragments of these combat operations and the application of the apparatus of Markov random processes for these purposes is substantiated.The effectiveness of tanks depends not only on their technical properties, but also on the ways they are used on the battlefield. At the same time, combat effectiveness of tanks is commonly understood as their effectiveness in conditions when the methods of conducting combat operations by each of the opposing sides are the best.The battle outcome is probabilistic. It has certain regularity, depending on the combat tactics. The battle can be imagined as a multitude of randomly dueling fights between tanks, differing in their location and range of fire. A study of the probability of a system transition from each transient state to the next leads to the construction of mathematical models that allow calculating the ratio of losses of opposing sides.Based on the facts of military history and discovered regularities, the mathematical models are constructed to allow reproducing various fragments of combat according to the scheme of the Markov random process, and on their basis calculations are performed. The dependence of the ratio of the losses of the opposing sides depending on the number of firing positions used by the ambush tanks was established, provided that the change of these positions was made imperceptibly for the enemy.The obtained results can be used to develop tactical methods of using tanks in antiterrorist operations
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