Peer assessment of research: how many publications per staff?

The UK's higher education funding councils have proposed reducing the number of submitted outputs from four to three in the forthcoming Research Excellence Framework to reduce the burden on panel members. This reduction is considered to be sufficient for panels to form a robust view of the achievements of individuals and their departments. The key issue is whether the subject panels would have sufficient information to judge the quality of research at departmental level with details of only three outputs per staff. Two journal quality indicators are used in this note to test the assumption that three publications is likely to be as useful to the panels as four to measure research quality in three cognate units of assessment (business & management, economics & econometrics and accounting & finance). In fact, the results indicate that two publications would be sufficient, thereby providing more time for a careful assessment of submitted outputs

The labor supply effect of in-kind transfers

We estimate a model of labor supply and participation in multiple programs for UK lone mothers which exploits a reform of in-work transfers. Cash entitlements increased but eligibility to in-kind child nutrition programs was lost. We find that in-work cash and in-work in-kind transfers both have large positive labor supply effects. There is, however, a utility loss from program participation which is estimated to be larger for cash than for child nutrition. This implies that the partial cash out of the in-kind benefits reduced labor supply.

The Dummies Guide' to Lottery Design.

This paper outlines the issues relevant to the operation of lottery games. We consider how such games should be designed, what a portfolio of games might look like, how the operator should be regulated, how spending on lottery games should be taxed, and what considerations are relevant to the use of the revenue from such games.LOTTERY ; GAMES ; MONEY ; TAXATION

Housing Subsidies and Work Incentives in Great Britain.

The relationship between housing costs, wages and transfer programmes is complex and yet plays an important part in determining the incentive to work for individuals in low income or high housing cost households. While it is true that many individuals who are in these categories are out of the labour force (retired, sick and disabled), there are many who are not and whose incentive to seek work, or to work harder if already in work, could be modified by directly changing the rent levels they face or indirectly via changes to the structure of programmes designed to subsidize housing for the poor. Here we estimate a static discrete choice labour supply model which allows for housing benefit programme participation. We use samples of 42491 married women and 13340 unmarried women drawn from Great Britain Family Resources Surveys 1994/5-97/8. We find that women are quite responsive to labour supply incentives, housing benefit income has similar incentive effects to earned income which suggests any "stigma" is small. Our analysis is complemented by simulating housing benefit and direct rent subsidy reforms.LABOUR ; HOUSING ; COSTS

Differences by Degree: Evidence of the Net Financial Rates of Return to Undergraduate Study for England and Wales

This paper provides estimates of the impact of higher education qualifications on the earnings of graduates in the UK by subject studied. We use data from the recent UK Labour Force Surveys which provide a sufficiently large sample to consider the effects of the subject studied, class of first degree, and postgraduate qualifications. Ordinary Least Squares estimates show high average returns for women that does not differ by subject. For men, we find very large returns for Economics, Management and Law but not for other subjects - we even find small negative returns in Arts, Humanities and other Social Sciences. Quantile Regression estimates suggest negative returns for some subjects at the bottom of the distribution, or even at the median. Degree class has large effects in all subjects suggesting the possibility of large returns to effort. Postgraduate study has large effects, independently of first degree class. A large rise in tuition fees across all subjects has only a modest impact on relative rates of return suggesting that little substitution across subjects would occur. The strong message that comes out of this research is that even a large rise in tuition fees makes little difference to the quality of the investment - those subjects that offer high returns (LEM for men, and all subjects for women) continue to do so. And those subjects that do not (especially OSSAH for men) will continue to offer poor returns. The effect of fee rises is dwarfed by existing cross subject differences in returns

Modelling take-up of Family Credit and Working Families' Tax Credit

Many people in the UK do not claim benefits to which they seem to be entitled. Amongst those of working-age, take-up rates for Family Credit ֠an in-work benefit available to those with children and working at least 16 hours a week ֠were the lowest of the main three means-tested benefits. In 1999, the UK Government replaced Family Credit with Working Families' Tax Credit, which was more generous, and delivered in a different way from FC. As a prelude to further work (now published as an update to this in the final report), we have analysed the decision to take up FC, and how take-up changed during the initial 6 month phase-in period of WFTC. Although there are differences in how well each records receipt of FC, we find reassuring similarities in comparable econometric models of take-up estimated on three different micro-data-sets. Entitlement, earnings, non-labour income, and education attainment are the most important determinants of FC take-up. We investigated FC take-up in greater detail using only the Family Resources Survey. Social renters are more likely to claim FC than owner occupiers or those in the private rental market, and we find that housing benefit recipients seem to under-value the potential fall in HB when considering whether to claim FC. We find that the Family Credit childcare disregard had little impact on the likelihood of take-up. Take-up of WFTC, conditional on entitlement, fell immediately after its introduction, compared to FC, but the majority of the effect is explained by the relatively low take-up rates of those families who were not previously entitled to FC. This is unsurprising, as we would not expect this group to have claimed WFTC on the first day of its existence. Work currently in progress is examining how take-up of WFTC, and the factors associated with take-up, changed between April 2000 and March 2003

Workshop on Magmatic Processes of Early Planetary Crusts: Magma Oceans and Stratiform Layered Intrusions

The significance of the lunar highland pristine cumulate samples were reevaluated with the aid of the additional insights provided by geologically constrained terrestrial investigations. This exercise involved a review of the state of knowledge about terrestrial and lunar cumulate rocks as well as an enumeration and reevaluation of the processes hypothesized to have been responsible for their formation, both classically and at present

A low pre-infall mass for the Carina dwarf galaxy from disequilibrium modelling

Dark matter only simulations of galaxy formation predict many more subhalos around a Milky Way like galaxy than the number of observed satellites. Proposed solutions require the satellites to inhabit dark matter halos with masses between one to ten billion solar masses at the time they fell into the Milky Way. Here we use a modelling approach, independent of cosmological simulations, to obtain a preinfall mass of 360 (+380,-230) million solar masses for one of the Milky Way's satellites: Carina. This determination of a low halo mass for Carina can be accommodated within the standard model only if galaxy formation becomes stochastic in halos below ten billion solar masses. Otherwise Carina, the eighth most luminous Milky Way dwarf, would be expected to inhabit a significantly more massive halo. The implication of this is that a population of "dark dwarfs" should orbit the Milky Way: halos devoid of stars and yet more massive than many of their visible counterparts.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, 1 table, and supplementary material availabl

The case for a cold dark matter cusp in Draco

We use a new mass modelling method, GravSphere, to measure the central dark matter density profile of the Draco dwarf spheroidal galaxy. Draco's star formation shut down long ago, making it a prime candidate for hosting a 'pristine' dark matter cusp, unaffected by stellar feedback during galaxy formation. We first test GravSphere on a suite of tidally stripped mock 'Draco'-like dwarfs. We show that we are able to correctly infer the dark matter density profile of both cusped and cored mocks within our 95% confidence intervals. While we obtain only a weak inference on the logarithmic slope of these density profiles, we are able to obtain a robust inference of the amplitude of the inner dark matter density at 150pc, $\rho_{\rm DM}(150\,{\rm pc})$. We show that, combined with constraints on the density profile at larger radii, this is sufficient to distinguish a $\Lambda$ Cold Dark Matter ($\Lambda$CDM) cusp $-$ that has $\rho_{\rm DM}(150\,{\rm pc}) > 1.8 \times 10^8\,{\rm M}_\odot \,{\rm kpc}^{-3}$ $-$ from alternative dark matter models that have lower inner densities. We then apply GravSphere to the real Draco data. We find that Draco has an inner dark matter density of $\rho_{\rm DM}(150\,{\rm pc}) = 2.4_{-0.6}^{+0.5} \times 10^8\,{\rm M}_\odot \,{\rm kpc}^{-3}$, consistent with a $\Lambda$CDM cusp. Using a velocity independent SIDM model, calibrated on $\Lambda$SIDM cosmological simulations, we show that Draco's high central density gives an upper bound on the SIDM cross section of $\sigma/m < 0.57\,{\rm cm}^2\,{\rm g}^{-1}$ at 99% confidence. We conclude that the inner density of nearby dwarf galaxies like Draco provides a new and competitive probe of dark matter models.Comment: 19 pages, 11 Figures. Final version accepted for publication in MNRA