Near-Earth space plasma modelling and forecasting

In the frame of the European COST 296 project (Mitigation of Ionospheric Effects on Radio Systems, MIERS)in the Working Package 1.3, new ionospheric models, prediction and forecasting methods and programs as well as ionospheric imaging techniques have been developed. They include (i) topside ionosphere and meso-scale irregularity models, (ii) improved forecasting methods for real time forecasting and for prediction of foF2, M(3000)F2, MUF and TECs, including the use of new techniques such as Neurofuzzy, Nearest Neighbour, Cascade Modelling and Genetic Programming and (iii) improved dynamic high latitude ionosphere models through tomographic imaging and model validation. The success of the prediction algorithms and their improvement over existing methods has been demonstrated by comparing predictions with later real data. The collaboration between different European partners (including interchange of data) has played a significant part in the development and validation of these new prediction and forecasting methods, programs and algorithms which can be applied to a variety of practical applications leading to improved mitigation of ionosphereic and space weather effects.Published255-2713.9. Fisica della magnetosfera, ionosfera e meteorologia spazialeJCR Journalope

Near-Earth space plasma modelling and forecasting

In the frame of the European COST 296 project (Mitigation of Ionospheric Effects on Radio Systems, MIERS)in the Working Package 1.3, new ionospheric models, prediction and forecasting methods and programs as well as ionospheric imaging techniques have been developed. They include (i) topside ionosphere and meso-scale irregularity models, (ii) improved forecasting methods for real time forecasting and for prediction of foF2, M(3000)F2, MUF and TECs, including the use of new techniques such as Neurofuzzy, Nearest Neighbour, Cascade Modelling and Genetic Programming and (iii) improved dynamic high latitude ionosphere models through tomographic imaging and model validation. The success of the prediction algorithms and their improvement over existing methods has been demonstrated by comparing predictions with later real data. The collaboration between different European partners (including interchange of data) has played a significant part in the development and validation of these new prediction and forecasting methods, programs and algorithms which can be applied to a variety of practical applications leading to improved mitigation of ionosphereic and space weather effects

Meteorologic Influences on Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in the Highland Tea Estates of Kericho, Western Kenya

Recent epidemics of Plasmodium falciparum malaria have been observed in high-altitude areas of East Africa. Increased malaria incidence in these areas of unstable malaria transmission has been attributed to a variety of changes including global warming. To determine whether the reemergence of malaria in western Kenya could be attributed to changes in meteorologic conditions, we tested for trends in a continuous 30-year monthly malaria incidence dataset (1966–1995) obtained from complete hospital registers at a Kenyan tea plantation. Contemporary monthly meteorologic data (1966–1995) that originated from the tea estate meteorologic station and from global climatology records were also tested for trends. We found that total hospital admissions (malaria and nonmalaria) remained unchanged while malaria admissions increased significantly during the period. We also found that all meteorologic variables showed no trends for significance, even when combined into a monthly suitability index for malaria transmission. We conclude that climate changes have not caused the highland malaria resurgence in western Kenya

Clinical Epidemiology of Malaria in the Highlands of Western Kenya

Malaria in the highlands of Kenya is traditionally regarded as unstable and limited by low temperature. Brief warm periods may facilitate malaria transmission and are therefore able to generate epidemic conditions in immunologically naive human populations living at high altitudes. The adult:child ratio (ACR) of malaria admissions is a simple tool we have used to assess the degree of functional immunity in the catchment population of a health facility. Examples of ACR are collected from inpatient admission data at facilities with a range of malaria endemicities in Kenya. Two decades of inpatient malaria admission data from three health facilities in a high-altitude area of western Kenya do not support the canonical view of unstable transmission. The malaria of the region is best described as seasonal and meso-endemic. We discuss the implications for malaria control options in the Kenyan highlands

Malaria in Kenya's Western Highlands

Reemergence of epidemics in tea plantations will likely result in antimalarial-drug resistance