Replicated INAR(1) processes

Replicated time series are a particular type of repeated measures, which consist of time-sequences of measurements taken from several subjects (experimental units). We consider independent replications of count time series that are modelled by first-order integer-valued autoregressive processes, INAR(1). In this work, we propose several estimation methods using the classical and the Bayesian approaches and both in time and frequency domains. Furthermore, we study the asymptotic properties of the estimators. The methods are illustrated and their performance is compared in a simulation study. Finally, the methods are applied to a set of observations concerning sunspot data.PRODEP II

Estimation and forecasting in SUINAR(1) model

This work considers a generalization of the INAR(1) model to the panel data first order Seemingly Unrelated INteger AutoRegressive Poisson model, SUINAR(1). It presents Bayesian and classical methodologies to estimate the parameters of Poisson SUINAR(1) model and to forecast future observations of the process. In particular, prediction intervals for forecasts - classical approach - and HPD prediction intervals - Bayesian approach - are derived. A simulation study is provided to give additional insight into the finite sample behaviour of the parameter estimates and forecasts

Forecasting in INAR(1) model

In this work we consider the problem of forecasting integer-valued time series, modelled by the INAR(1) process introduced by McKenzie (1985) and Al-Osh and Alzaid (1987). The theoretical properties and practical applications of INAR and related processes have been discussed extensively in the literature but there is still some discussion on the problem of producing coherent, i.e. integer-valued, predictions. Here Bayesian methodology is used to obtain point predictions as well as confidence intervals for future values of the process. The predictions thus obtained are compared with their classic counterparts. The proposed approaches are illustrated with a simulation study and a real example

Geomorphological units of mainland Portugal

São representadas cartograficamente as unidades geomorfológicas identificadas para os 89015 km2 do território de Portugal Continental. A delimitação das unidades teve por base a análise dos padrões da textura fornecida por imagens SRTM, com revisão e adaptação posterior à altimetria e à geologia, para os quais foram usadas bases cartográficas digitais. Foram considerados três níveis taxionómicos que permitem descrever e caracterizar áreas homogéneas do ponto de vista geomorfológico. As três unidades de 1º nível baseiam-se nas unidades morfostruturais clássicas consideradas para a Península Ibérica. As dez unidades de 2º nível constituem, na sua maioria, divisões clássicas do relevo de Portugal Continental, agora agrupadas de acordo com a metodologia adoptada e designadas como unidades morfosculturais. As 56 unidades de 3º nível, ou subunidades morfosculturais, foram individualizadas com base nos padrões de relevo identifi cados nas imagens SRTM e na observação de campo e adquiriram uma designação baseada essencialmente nas geoformas que as individualizam e na toponímia local. As unidades geomorfológicas identificadas são descritas através de características do relevo, dissecação fluvial, estruturas, tipo de drenagem e base geológica, bem como de parâmetros numéricos gerados de forma automática, como classes de altitude e de declividade. Pretende-se que o mapa elaborado possa contribuir para a gestão territorial, em especial na tomada de decisões em conservação da natureza.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT); CNPq (Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico) (Brasil

Quantification of a new water diversity index for large areas using GIS. Examples in Paraná State, Xingu river basin (Brazil) and Portugal

(Cuantificación de un nuevo index de diversidad hídrica para grandes áreas con SIG: ejemplos en lo estado del Paraná, en la cuenca del rio Xingú (Brasil) y en Portugal): Se presenta un método para la evaluación cuantitativa de la diversidad de recursos hídricos en grandes áreas, con los ejemplos del estado de Paraná (Brasil), de la Cuenca del rio Xingú (Brasil) y de Portugal continental. En la mayoría de las propuestas metodológicas para evaluación de la geodiversidad, la diversidad hidrológica respecta a las características de la hidrografía, en relación con la diversidad de geoformas fluviales. Este trabajo pretende contribuir al inclusión de recursos hídricos como un elemento significativo en metodologías de evaluación de la geodiversidad, incluyendo tanto las aguas superficiales y aguas subterráneas. El uso de procedimientos de SIG demuestra que estas técnicas pueden ser utilizados para acelerar el cálculo de los índices de diversidad y su representación cartográfica.The Portuguese authors express their gratitude for the financial support given by the FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) to the Institute of Earth Sciences (Pole of the University of Minho), which partially supports this research. The Brazilian authors express their gratitude for the financial support given by the CNPq (Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico) and CAPES (Cordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The Framework “Glacial and periglacial landforms and deposits” in the scope of the Portuguese Geological Heritage Inventory

“Geoformas, depósitos glaciários e periglaciários” é um dos contextos geológicos considerados no âmbito da inventariação em curso do património geológico em território nacional. Apesar da reduzida expressão geográfica que as geoformas, os depósitos glaciários e periglaciários têm em Portugal, é-lhes reconhecida importância científica, também por essa via e por resultarem de processos morfodinâmicos raros nas condições climáticas actualmente existentes em Portugal. Após uma avaliação de potenciais geossítios com base em critérios de valor científico, foram seleccionados dezasseis como possuindo relevância nacional.“Glacial and periglacial landforms and deposits” is one of the frameworks included in the ongoing geological heritage national inventory. The scientific value of these features is connected with the occurrence of relevant evidences of Quaternary glaciations in the higher mountains of the country like erosion landforms (U shaped valleys, cirques), depositional landforms (moraines) and deposits (subglacial tills). Sixteen geosites with national relevance were selected after a potential geosites assessment focused in scientific criteria.Este trabalho é apoiado pela Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, através do financiamento plurianual do CGUP e do projecto de investigação “Identificação, caracterização e conservação do património geológico: uma estratégia de geoconservação para Portugal” (PTDC/CTEGEX/64966/2006).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Geological and geomorphological heritage of Avelada-Baçal area (Montesinho Natural Park, NE Portugal)

O Parque Natural de Montesinho (PNM) fica situado no Nordeste de Portugal, abrange a parte norte dos concelhos de Vinhais e Bragança e engloba as serras da Coroa e Montesinho. Geologicamente o PNM situa-se nas unidades autóctones da Zona Centro Ibérica e nas unidades parautóctones e alóctones da Zona Galiza-Trás-os-Montes. Nesta primeira abordagem acerca do Património Geológico do PNM, faz-se a analise da região situada entre Aveleda e Baçal, cuja clareza das formas de relevo e a definição das relações com a geologia e com a tectónica, no seio de uma área protegida, são razões para a sua valorização. Assim, no presente trabalho descrevem-se e interpretam-se os aspectos geomorfológicos desta região. A partir de locais de observação estabelecidos é possível constatar que a região de Aveleda-Baçal corresponde ao bloco abatido de um graben controlado por falhas de orientação NNE-SSW, com destaque para a falha de Portelo que origina uma escarpa pelo soerguimento do bloco ocidental e abatimento a leste. No bloco ocidental deste acidente tectónico estão representados restos de uma superfície de aplanamento a cotas superiores a 900 metros (superfície de Espinhosela) e para norte a serra de Montesinho (1481 m), um bloco mais elevado de topos relativamente aplanados.The Montesinho Natural Park (MNP) is located in NE Portugal (Vinhais -Bragan~a region), comprising the Coroa and Montesinho mountains. The geology of the area is characterised by the occurrence of mafic and ultramafic rocks defining the Bragança massif, one of the four massifs in the northwest Iberia. Geologically the MNP is placed both in the autochthonous sequences of the Central Iberian Zone and in the pile of thrust units of the "Galiza-Trás-os-Montes" Zone. These nappes comprises from bottom to the top: 1) parautochthonous thrust complex, including metasediments of Silurian-Devonian age having lithological affinities with the subautochthonous; 2) lower allochthonous thrust complex (H-P metamorphism, peralcaline bimodal volcanism) of Lower Palaeozoic for the bottom to Upper Palaeozoic age for the top of the unit; 3) a fragmented Palaeozoic ophiolite complex; 4) an upper continental allochthonous terrane of Precambrian to Lower Cambrian age. They are thrusted over a Silurian-Devonian subautochthonous metasediment sequence. Ordovician quartzites and slates mainly form the autochthonous. Finally, Cenozoic tectono-sedimentary events left their imprints on the landscape, namely with the presence of three unconforrnity-bounded sedimentary sequences. The late variscan tectonic episodes break up the Iberian Meseta plateau in several parts. The Aveleda-Baçal surface is a graben controlled by the NNE-SSW (Portelo fault) and N-S (Aveleda fault) fault systems. The Portelo fault belongs to a major lineament of the late-variscan tectonic episode of the NW Iberia (Bragança-Vilariça fault system). This is a left -lateral strike -slip fault with the uplift of the western block. The Aveleda fault is reactivated as dextral strike slip fault in late-variscan episodes. This complex geology is responsible for unique landscape features, having an important role on the natural heritage of the park. In this first overview, the Espinhosela area was selected for its distinguishing landscape features, clearly controlled by geological and tectonical events. The geomorphological features are described and interpreted from distinct observation sites. It is possible to define several local surfaces, traces of the Iberian Meseta plateau. In the western uplift block three surfaces are defined: 1) Espinhosela surface (900 m) tectonically controlled by the major thrusts between the allochthonous units; lithologically this surface is defined on the Espinhosela gneisses; 2) the Soutelo surface (1000-1100 m) bordered by the two major thrusts between parautochthonous and subautochthonous units; 3) to the north of this thrust, the Montesinho upper surface (1400 m) is defined on the granite intrusion. In the Aveleda-Baçal graben (locally known as "Baixa Lombada") two surfaces can be defined: Aveleda surface (800-900 m) defined on Cenozoic sediments and Baçal surface (600-700 m) defined on gneisses. The eastern limit of the graben is a complex conjugation of N/S and WNW/ESE faults rising the eastern block up to 900 m ("Alta Lombada").Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT)Instituto de Conservação da Natureza (ICN)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Mapping and analysis of geodiversity indices in the Xingu river basin, Amazonia, Brazil

First published online: 14 October 2014From the 1990s, geodiversity studies have been widely carried out in order to understand, describe and preserve the natural heritage of the abiotic environment. Geodiversity assessments have principally been conducted using geological (minerals, rocks and fossils), geomorphological (landforms and processes) and pedological variables. This concept has been widespread and consolidated in scientific circles, where early studies focused on methods that assessed the spatial variability of the geodiversity, with a particular focus on quantitative aspects. In this study, a geodiversity quantification methodology (Pereira et al. 2013) has been applied to the Xingu River basin (Amazônia, Brazil), which covers approximately 51 million hectares. This methodology is based on measuring and integrating abiotic elements, which are spatialised using thematic maps at scales varying between 1:250,000 and 1:1,000,000 and using a 1:25,000 systematic linkage grid. This methodology was adapted for the Amazonian environment by including parameters related to river channel patterns, as approximately 12.6 % of the area is a fluvial environment (channels and floodplains). After applying the methodology, geodiversity indices varying between 4 and 32 were obtained, and a geodiversity hot spot in the basin was identified in the region known as “Volta Grande do Xingu” (The Great Bend of the Xingu). The results of the study highlight the fragility of legal tools for environmental protection of the area, primarily those related to aspects of the physical environment. Although large portions of the basin are partially or fully protected (as indigenous lands and conservation units), the area with the greatest geodiversity is precisely the one which has fewer legal protection devices and is where the Belo Monte hydroelectric power plant is being built

Revisiting the Ediacaran-Cambrian boundary in the Ossa-Morena Zone (SW Iberia)

Some of the best outcrops of Iberia to study the Ediacaran-Cambrian boundary are located in the Ossa- Morena Zone. In the Crato-Campo Maior region (SW Iberia, Portugal), this stratigraphic boundary is marked by an angular unconformity (Gonçalves, 1971). The Ediacaran sedimentary rocks of the Série Negra Group (maximum depositional age of c. 545 Ma; Linnemann et al., 2008) are overlain by Early Cambrian strata. A folded foliation has been recognized in the Ediacaran metagreywackes, metapelites, black metachert, marbles and metabasic rocks (Pereira & Silva, 2002). This deformation event is previous to the intrusion of c. 526-525 Ma granitic rocks (Barquete and Barreiros plutons; Pereira et al., 2011; Sánchez-García et al., 2013), and is not represented in the unconformable overlying Early Cambrian strata including sandstone (maximum depositional age of c. 532 Ma; Pereira et al., 2011). At the base of the lower Cambrian stratigraphic section there is the Freixo-Segóvia volcanosedimentary complex consisting of felsic tuff interbedded with conglo-merate and rhyolitic-dacitic lava flow (Pereira et al., 2006). The conglomerate is composed of pebbles of volcanic rock (basalt, rhyolite, dacite and mafic and felsic tuff), granitic rocks, chert, quartzite, arkosic sandstone, greywacke and shale in a tuffaceous sandy matrix. This volcano-sedimentary complex is overlain by a sequence of sandstone and shale passing vertically to limestone beds which have been attributed to the lower Cambrian (Pereira et al., 2006) (see Fig. 12). An ongoing research project intends to date the volcanic rocks of the volcano-sedimentary complex using U-Pb zircon geochronology. The absolute dates determined from these volcanic rocks will provide the time framework for the calibration of the existing stratigraphic scheme based on regional correlation

Mapping regional geodiversity in Brazil and Portugal

A methodology meant to be used in the quantitative assessment and mapping of geodiversity was defined for regional scale, following the initial proposal of Pereira et al. (2012). The method was tested in the Xingu Basin, Amazon, Brazil (about 510,000 km2), Paraná State, Brazil (about 200,000 km2), and Portugal mainland (about 89,000 km2). It is a GIS method intended to assess all features of geodiversity and to avoid overrating any particular one, such as lithology or relief, which is a com- mon weakness in other methods. The procedure consists on the overlay of a grid over different types of maps at scales between 1:250 000 and 1:1 000 000. The number of geological units (stratigraphical and lithological) that occurs in each grid cell of the geological map is counted, producing a map of geological indexes. The geomorphological index map results from the sum of the relief and hydrographical indexes obtained from the geomorphological units map. Palaeontological and pedological index maps are obtained from counting palaeontological units and soil units, respectively. The singular occurrences index map is based on the number of occurrences such as precious stones and metals, energy and industrial minerals, mineral waters and springs. The final Geodiversity Map results from the combination of those five partial indexes. The Geodiversity Map is a GIS automatically generated map, which allows an easy interpretation by non specialists. The map can be used as a tool in land-use planning, particularly for the identification of priority areas for conservation, and for the use and management of natural resources