A Comparison of Rational Versus Empirical Methods in the Prediction of Psychotherapy Outcome

Several systems have been designed to monitor psychotherapy outcome, in which feedback is generated based on how a client\u27s rate of progress compares to an expected level of progress. Clients who progress at a much lesser rate than the average client are referred to as signal-alarm cases. Recent studies have shown that providing feedback to therapists based on comparing their clients\u27 progress to a set of rational, clinically derived algorithms has enhanced outcomes for clients predicted to show poor treatment outcomes. Should another method of predicting psychotherapy outcome emerge as more accurate than the rational method, this method would likely be more useful than the rational method in enhancing psychotherapy outcomes. The present study compared the rational algorithms to those generated by an empirical prediction method generated through hierarchical linear modeling. The sample consisted of299 clients seen at a university counseling center and a psychology training clinic. The empirical method was significantly more accurate in predicting outcome than was the rational method. Clients predicted to show poor treatment outcome by the empirical method showed, on average, very little positive change. There was no difference between the methods in the ability to accurately forecast reliable worsening during treatment. The rational method resulted in a high percentage of false alarms, that is, clients who were predicted to show poor treatment response but in fact showed a positive treatment outcome. The empirical method generated significantly fewer false alarms than did the rational method. The empirical method was generally accurate in its predictions of treatment success, whereas the rational method was somewhat less accurate in predicting positive outcomes. Suggestions for future research in psychotherapy quality management are discussed

Feedback Enhanced Sensitivity in Optomechanics: Surpassing the Parametric Instability Barrier

The intracavity power, and hence sensitivity, of optomechanical sensors is commonly limited by parametric instability. Here we characterize the parametric instability induced sensitivity degradation in a micron scale cavity optomechanical system. Feedback via optomechanical transduction and electrical gradient force actuation is applied to suppress the parametric instability. As a result a 5.4 fold increase in mechanical motion transduction sensitivity is achieved to a final value of $1.9\times 10^{-18}\rm m Hz^{-1/2}$.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Momentum average approximation for models with electron-phonon coupling dependent on the phonon momentum

We generalize the momentum average (MA) approximation to study the properties of models with momentum-dependent electron-phonon coupling. As in the case of the application of the original MA to the Holstein model, the results are analytical, numerically trivial to evaluate, exact for both zero bandwidth and for zero electron-phonon coupling, and are accurate everywhere in parameter space. Comparison with available numerical data confirms this accuracy. We then show that further improvements can be obtained based on variational considerations, using the one-dimensional breathing-mode Hamiltonian as a specific example. For example, by using this variational MA, we obtain ground state energies within at most 0.3% error of the numerical data.Comment: 15 pages, 10 figure

NEW RECORDS OF INSECTS AND MITES FOR PUERTO RICO

NEW RECORDS OF INSECTS AND MITES FOR PUERTO RIC

Microwave ISM Emission in the Green Bank Galactic Plane Survey: Evidence for Spinning Dust

We observe significant dust-correlated emission outside of H II regions in the Green Bank Galactic Plane Survey (-4 < b < 4 degrees) at 8.35 and 14.35 GHz. The rising spectral slope rules out synchrotron and free-free emission as majority constituents at 14 GHz, and the amplitude is at least 500 times higher than expected thermal dust emission. When combined with the Rhodes (2.326 GHz), and WMAP (23-94 GHz) data it is possible to fit dust-correlated emission at 2.3-94 GHz with only soft synchrotron, free-free, thermal dust, and an additional dust-correlated component similar to Draine & Lazarian spinning dust. The rising component generally dominates free-free and synchrotron for \nu >~ 14 GHz and is overwhelmed by thermal dust at \nu > 60 GHz. The current data fulfill most of the criteria laid out by Finkbeiner et al. (2002) for detection of spinning dust.Comment: ApJ in press. 26 pages, 11 figures, figures jpeg compressed to save spac

Rising minimum daily flows in northern Eurasian rivers: A growing influence of groundwater in the high‐latitude hydrologic cycle

A first analysis of new daily discharge data for 111 northern rivers from 1936–1999 and 1958–1989 finds an overall pattern of increasing minimum daily flows (or “low flows”) throughout Russia. These increases are generally more abundant than are increases in mean flow and appear to drive much of the overall rise in mean flow observed here and in previous studies. Minimum flow decreases have also occurred but are less abundant. The minimum flow increases are found in summer as well as winter and in nonpermafrost as well as permafrost terrain. No robust spatial contrasts are found between the European Russia, Ob\u27, Yenisey, and Lena/eastern Siberia sectors. A subset of 12 unusually long discharge records from 1935–2002, concentrated in south central Russia, suggests that recent minimum flow increases since ∼1985 are largely unprecedented in the instrumental record, at least for this small group of stations. If minimum flows are presumed sensitive to groundwater and unsaturated zone inputs to river discharge, then the data suggest a broad‐scale mobilization of such water sources in the late 20th century. We speculate that reduced intensity of seasonal ground freezing, together with precipitation increases, might drive much of the well documented but poorly understood increases in river discharge to the Arctic Ocean

Minimum requirements for feedback enhanced force sensing

The problem of estimating an unknown force driving a linear oscillator is revisited. When using linear measurement, feedback is often cited as a mechanism to enhance bandwidth or sensitivity. We show that as long as the oscillator dynamics are known, there exists a real-time estimation strategy that reproduces the same measurement record as any arbitrary feedback protocol. Consequently some form of nonlinearity is required to gain any advantage beyond estimation alone. This result holds true in both quantum and classical systems, with non-stationary forces and feedback, and in the general case of non-Gaussian and correlated noise. Recently, feedback enhanced incoherent force sensing has been demonstrated [Nat. Nano. \textbf{7}, 509 (2012)], with the enhancement attributed to a feedback induced modification of the mechanical susceptibility. As a proof-of-principle we experimentally reproduce this result through straightforward filtering.Comment: 5 pages + 2 pages of Supplementary Informatio

Thin film superfluid optomechanics

Excitations in superfluid helium represent attractive mechanical degrees of freedom for cavity optomechanics schemes. Here we numerically and analytically investigate the properties of optomechanical resonators formed by thin films of superfluid $^4$He covering micrometer-scale whispering gallery mode cavities. We predict that through proper optimization of the interaction between film and optical field, large optomechanical coupling rates $g_0>2\pi \times 100$ kHz and single photon cooperativities $C_0>10$ are achievable. Our analytical model reveals the unconventional behaviour of these thin films, such as thicker and heavier films exhibiting smaller effective mass and larger zero point motion. The optomechanical system outlined here provides access to unusual regimes such as $g_0>\Omega_M$ and opens the prospect of laser cooling a liquid into its quantum ground state.Comment: 18 pages, 6 figure

Self-organization of hydrophobic soil and granular surfaces

Soil can become extremely water repellent following forest fires or oil spillages, thus preventing penetration of water and increasing runoff and soil erosion. Here the authors show that evaporation of a droplet from the surface of a hydrophobic granular material can be an active process, lifting, self-coating, and selectively concentrating small solid grains. Droplet evaporation leads to the formation of temporary liquid marbles and, as droplet volume reduces, particles of different wettabilities compete for water-air interfacial surface area. This can result in a sorting effect with self-organization of a mixed hydrophobic-hydrophilic aggregate into a hydrophobic shell surrounding a hydrophilic core