Future hydrological extremes: the uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models

Projections of changes in the hydrological cycle from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are critical for understanding future occurrence of hydrological extremes. However, uncertainties remain large and need to be better assessed. In particular, recent studies have pointed to a considerable contribution of GHMs that can equal or outweigh the contribution of GCMs to uncertainty in hydrological projections. Using six GHMs and five GCMs from the ISI-MIP multi-model ensemble, this study aims: (i) to assess future changes in the frequency of both high and low flows at the global scale using control and future (RCP8.5) simulations by the 2080s, and (ii) to quantify, for both ends of the runoff spectrum, GCMs and GHMs contributions to uncertainty using a two-way ANOVA. Increases are found in high flows for northern latitudes and in low flows for several hotspots. Globally, the largest source of uncertainty is associated with GCMs, but GHMs are the greatest source in snow-dominated regions. More specifically, results vary depending on the runoff metric, the temporal (annual and seasonal) and regional scale of analysis. For instance, uncertainty contribution from GHMs is higher for low flows than it is for high flows, partly owing to the different processes driving the onset of the two phenomena (e.g. the more direct effect of the GCMs' precipitation variability on high flows). This study provides a comprehensive synthesis of where future hydrological extremes are projected to increase and where the ensemble spread is owed to either GCMs or GHMs. Finally, our results underline the need for improvements in modelling snowmelt and runoff processes to project future hydrological extremes and the importance of using multiple GCMs and GHMs to encompass the uncertainty range provided by these two sources

Forming and preserving aragonite in shear zones: First report of blueschist facies metamorphism in the Jabal Akhdar Dome, Oman Mountains

We report the first occurrence of high-pressure metamorphic aragonite in Precambrian carbonates of the Jabal Akhdar Dome in the Oman Mountains (northern Oman). We propose a model for both its formation at blueschist facies conditions and its subsequent preservation to the surface within the tectonic framework of the Late Cretaceous obduction of the Semail Ophiolite. Aragonite formed at temperature ∼350 °C and pressure ≥0.9 GPa and is preserved within mylonitic shear zones and in stretched-fiber dilational veins where the necessary conditions for its formation and preservation, such as plastic strain accommodation, fluid-enhanced mineralogical reactions, and an anisotropic permeability structure, were preferentially met with respect to the surrounding rock. High-strain structural domains are ideal sites to look for and study prograde and retrograde high-pressure metamorphic histories in deeply subducted and exhumed terrains

Protracted shearing at mid‐crustal conditions during large‐scale thrusting in the Scandinavian Caledonides

During continental collision, large tracts of crust are mobilised along major shear zones. The metamorphic conditions at which these zones operate, the duration of thrusting, and the deformation processes that facilitated hundreds of km of tectonic transport are still unclear. In the Scandinavian Caledonides, the Lower Seve Nappe displays a main mylonitic foliation with thickness of ~1 km. This foliation is overprinted by a brittle‐to‐ductile deformation pattern localized in C and C’‐type shear bands proximal to the tectonic contact with the underlying Särv Nappe. Thermobarometry of amphibolites and micaschists suggest a first high‐pressure stage at 400‐500°C and 1‐1.3 GPa recorded in mineral relics. The main mylonitic foliation developed under epidote amphibolite facies conditions along the retrograde path from 600°C and 1 GPa to 500°C and 0.5 GPa. Age dating of synkinematic titanite grains in the amphibolites indicates that this mylonitic fabric formed at around 417 ± 9 Ma, but older ages spanning 460‐430 Ma could represent earlier stages of mylonitization. The shear bands developed at lower metamorphic conditions of 300‐400°C and ~0.3 GPa. In the micaschists, the recrystallized grain size of quartz decreases towards the shear bands. Monomineralic quartz layers are eventually dismembered to form polyphase aggregates deforming by dominant grain size sensitive creep accompanied by slip in muscovite and chlorite. Plagioclase zoning truncations suggest that the shear bands originated by fracturing followed by ductile deformation. The results suggest protracted and long‐lasting shearing under amphibolite to greenschist facies conditions during the juxtaposition, stacking and exhumation of the Lower Seve Nappe

Prognostic significance of IL-6 and IL-8 ascites levels in ovarian cancer patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The acellular fraction of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) ascites promotes <it>de novo </it>resistance of tumor cells and thus supports the idea that tumor cells may survive in the surrounding protective microenvironment contributing to disease recurrence. Levels of the pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-6 and IL-8 are elevated in EOC ascites suggesting that they could play a role in tumor progression.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We measured IL-6 and IL-8 levels in the ascites of 39 patients with newly diagnosed EOC. Commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to determine IL-6 and IL-8 ascites levels. Ascites cytokine levels were correlated with clinicopathological parameters and progression-free survival.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mean ascites levels for IL-6 and IL-8 were 6419 pg/ml (SEM: 1409 pg/ml) and 1408 pg/ml (SEM: 437 pg/ml) respectively. The levels of IL-6 and IL-8 in ascites were significantly lower in patients that have received prior chemotherapy before the surgery (Mann-Whitney U test, <it>P </it>= 0.037 for IL-6 and <it>P </it>= 0.008 for IL-8). Univariate analysis revealed that high IL-6 ascites levels (<it>P </it>= 0.021), serum CA125 levels (<it>P </it>= 0.04) and stage IV (<it>P </it>= 0.009) were significantly correlated with shorter progression-free survival. Including these variables in a multivariate analysis revealed that elevated IL-6 levels (<it>P </it>= 0.033) was an independent predictor of shorter progression-free survival.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Elevated IL-6, but not IL-8, ascites level is an independent predictor of shorter progression-free survival.</p

Ovarian cancer molecular pathology.

Peer reviewe

Association of kidney disease measures with risk of renal function worsening in patients with type 1 diabetes

Background: Albuminuria has been classically considered a marker of kidney damage progression in diabetic patients and it is routinely assessed to monitor kidney function. However, the role of a mild GFR reduction on the development of stage 653 CKD has been less explored in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients. Aim of the present study was to evaluate the prognostic role of kidney disease measures, namely albuminuria and reduced GFR, on the development of stage 653 CKD in a large cohort of patients affected by T1DM. Methods: A total of 4284 patients affected by T1DM followed-up at 76 diabetes centers participating to the Italian Association of Clinical Diabetologists (Associazione Medici Diabetologi, AMD) initiative constitutes the study population. Urinary albumin excretion (ACR) and estimated GFR (eGFR) were retrieved and analyzed. The incidence of stage 653 CKD (eGFR &lt; 60 mL/min/1.73 m2) or eGFR reduction &gt; 30% from baseline was evaluated. Results: The mean estimated GFR was 98 \ub1 17 mL/min/1.73m2 and the proportion of patients with albuminuria was 15.3% (n = 654) at baseline. About 8% (n = 337) of patients developed one of the two renal endpoints during the 4-year follow-up period. Age, albuminuria (micro or macro) and baseline eGFR &lt; 90 ml/min/m2 were independent risk factors for stage 653 CKD and renal function worsening. When compared to patients with eGFR &gt; 90 ml/min/1.73m2 and normoalbuminuria, those with albuminuria at baseline had a 1.69 greater risk of reaching stage 3 CKD, while patients with mild eGFR reduction (i.e. eGFR between 90 and 60 mL/min/1.73 m2) show a 3.81 greater risk that rose to 8.24 for those patients with albuminuria and mild eGFR reduction at baseline. Conclusions: Albuminuria and eGFR reduction represent independent risk factors for incident stage 653 CKD in T1DM patients. The simultaneous occurrence of reduced eGFR and albuminuria have a synergistic effect on renal function worsening