Are biases towards the recent past causing us to unintentionally expose personnel to increased levels of risk?

PresentationThis paper focuses on the consideration of an unbiased approach to assessing risk to push the industry towards proactively addressing risk rather than reactively allowing cognitive biases to drive process safety culture and personnel risk management solutions. Scientifically proven to affect the way we process and interpret the world around us, cognitive biases allow us to shortcut the complexities of the world when making decisions. In some cases, biases can be surprisingly accurate, while in other instances they can lead to making poor judgements and decisions based on the limited information available to us. Specifically damaging in the process safety industry are the availability heuristic and the confirmation bias, which together cause us to focus on information that comes to mind quickly, justifies our opinions, and favors our existing beliefs. With recent industrial accidents that have resulted in fatalities and a push toward regulatory change in response to explosion events, we have seen a rise in the availability of blast resistant structures such as BRMs and hardened stick-built buildings to protect onsite personnel from explosions. The availability of such blast hardened structures has produced an unfortunate trend of moving personnel back in closer to processing areas. Recent advancements in full-scale testing and computer modeling capabilities suggests that even though such buildings may protect for some level of blast hazards, this approach may result in increased levels of personnel risk from other hazard types, specifically impinged jet fires and toxic exposure. This raises the question: are employees being placed in risky locations in a BRM or hardened building with a false sense of security

The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement: Looking Ahead to the Next Steps

Pressure has been building for the conclusion of the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations. Getting the deal done is important, but the TPP is not just another free trade agreement (FTA). It represents the chance to set a trade agenda for the future across a wide range of topics for countries throughout the Asia-Pacific region. This means that the agreement should not be settled in haste. More importantly, it also means that key decisions need to be reached about broader issues related to the institutional structure of the TPP. These decisions must be made now, before the deal is closed, on issues such as how to create the TPP as a living agreement, the formation of a TPP Secretariat, and the clarification of entry conditions for future members such as the People’s Republic of China (PRC). These choices must be made deliberately and carefully even while officials are struggling with reaching closure on the most highly sensitive issues still remaining in the agreement. It will not be easy, but wise decisions are necessary now to ensure the long-term success of the TPP

Protocol for a collaborative meta-analysis of 5-HTTLPR, stress, and depression

Abstract Background Debate is ongoing about what role, if any, variation in the serotonin transporter linked polymorphic region (5-HTTLPR) plays in depression. Some studies report an interaction between 5-HTTLPR variation and stressful life events affecting the risk for depression, others report a main effect of 5-HTTLPR variation on depression, while others find no evidence for either a main or interaction effect. Meta-analyses of multiple studies have also reached differing conclusions. Methods/Design To improve understanding of the combined roles of 5-HTTLPR variation and stress in the development of depression, we are conducting a meta-analysis of multiple independent datasets. This coordinated approach utilizes new analyses performed with centrally-developed, standardized scripts. This publication documents the protocol for this collaborative, consortium-based meta-analysis of 5-HTTLPR variation, stress, and depression. Study eligibility criteria: Our goal is to invite all datasets, published or unpublished, with 5-HTTLPR genotype and assessments of stress and depression for at least 300 subjects. This inclusive approach is to minimize potential impact from publication bias. Data sources: This project currently includes investigators from 35 independent groups, providing data on at least N = 33,761 participants. The analytic plan was determined prior to starting data analysis. Analyses of individual study datasets will be performed by the investigators who collected the data using centrally-developed standardized analysis scripts to ensure a consistent analytical approach across sites. The consortium as a group will review and interpret the meta-analysis results. Discussion Variation in 5-HTTLPR is hypothesized to moderate the response to stress on depression. To test specific hypotheses about the role of 5-HTTLPR variation on depression, we will perform coordinated meta-analyses of de novo results obtained from all available data, using variables and analyses determined a priori. Primary analyses, based on the original 2003 report by Caspi and colleagues of a GxE interaction will be supplemented by secondary analyses to help interpret and clarify issues ranging from the mechanism of effect to heterogeneity among the contributing studies. Publication of this protocol serves to protect this project from biased reporting and to improve the ability of readers to interpret the results of this specific meta-analysis upon its completion.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/112319/1/12888_2013_Article_1474.pd

Holographic predictions for cosmological 3-point functions

We present the holographic predictions for cosmological 3-point correlators, involving both scalar and tensor modes, for a universe which started in a non-geometric holographic phase. Holographic formulae relate the cosmological 3-point functions to stress tensor correlation functions of a holographically dual three-dimensional non-gravitational QFT. We compute these correlators at 1-loop order for a theory containing massless scalars, fermions and gauge fields, and present an extensive analysis of the constraints due to Ward identities showing that they uniquely determine the correlators up to a few constants. We define shapes for all cosmological bispectra and compare the holographic shapes to the slow-roll ones, finding that some are distinguishable while others, perhaps surprisingly, are not.Comment: 51pp; 4 fig

Effects and Detectability of Quasi-Single Field Inflation in the Large-Scale Structure and Cosmic Microwave Background

Quasi-single field inflation predicts a peculiar momentum dependence in the squeezed limit of the primordial bispectrum which smoothly interpolates between the local and equilateral models. This dependence is directly related to the mass of the isocurvatons in the theory which is determined by the supersymmetry. Therefore, in the event of detection of a non-zero primordial bispectrum, additional constraints on the parameter controlling the momentum-dependence in the squeezed limit becomes an important question. We explore the effects of these non-Gaussian initial conditions on large-scale structure and the cosmic microwave background, with particular attention to the galaxy power spectrum at large scales and scale-dependence corrections to galaxy bias. We determine the simultaneous constraints on the two parameters describing the QSF bispectrum that we can expect from upcoming large-scale structure and cosmic microwave background observations. We find that for relatively large values of the non-Gaussian amplitude parameters, but still well within current uncertainties, galaxy power spectrum measurements will be able to distinguish the QSF scenario from the predictions of the local model. A CMB likelihood analysis, as well as Fisher matrix analysis, shows that there is also a range of parameter values for which Planck data may be able distinguish between QSF models and the related local and equilateral shapes. Given the different observational weightings of the CMB and LSS results, degeneracies can be significantly reduced in a joint analysis.Comment: 27 pages, 14 figure

Study protocol: evaluation of a parenting and stress management programme: a randomised controlled trial of Triple P discussion groups and stress control

<br>Background: Children displaying psychosocial problems are at an increased risk of negative developmental outcomes. Parenting practices are closely linked with child development and behaviour, and parenting programmes have been recommended in the treatment of child psychosocial problems. However, parental mental health also needs to be addressed when delivering parenting programmes as it is linked with parenting practices, child outcomes, and treatment outcomes of parenting programmes. This paper describes the protocol of a study examining the effects of a combined intervention of a parenting programme and a cognitive behavioural intervention for mental health problems.</br> <br>Methods: The effects of a combined intervention of Triple P Discussion Groups and Stress Control will be examined using a randomised controlled trial design. Parents with a child aged 3?8?years will be recruited to take part in the study. After obtaining informed consent and pre-intervention measures, participants will be randomly assigned to either an intervention or a waitlist condition. The two primary outcomes for this study are change in dysfunctional/ineffective parenting practices and change in symptoms of depression, anxiety, and stress. Secondary outcomes are child behaviour problems, parenting experiences, parental self-efficacy, family relationships, and positive parental mental health. Demographic information, participant satisfaction with the intervention, and treatment fidelity data will also be collected. Data will be collected at pre-intervention, mid-intervention, post-intervention, and 3-month follow-up.</br> <br>Discussion: The aim of this paper is to describe the study protocol of a randomised controlled trial evaluating the effects of a combined intervention of Triple P Discussion Groups and Stress Control in comparison to a waitlist condition. This study is important because it will provide evidence about the effects of this combined intervention for parents with 3?8?year old children. The results of the study could be used to inform policy about parenting support and support for parents with mental health problems. Trial registration ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT01777724, UTN: U1111-1137-1053.</br&gt

The characteristics of sexual abuse in sport: A multidimensional scaling analysis of events described in media reports

Most research on sexual abuse has been conducted within family settings (Fergusson & Mullen, 1999). In recent years, following several high profile convictions and scandals, research into sexual abuse has also encompassed institutional and community settings such as sport and the church (Gallagher, 2000; Wolfe et al., 2003). Research into sexual abuse in sport, for example, began with both prevalence studies (Kirby & Greaves, 1996; Leahy, Pretty & Tenenbaum, 2002) and qualitative analyses of the processes and experiences of athlete sexual abuse (Brackenridge, 1997; Cense & Brackenridge, 2001, Toftegaard Nielsen, 2001). From such work, descriptions of the modus operandi of abusers in sport, and the experiences and consequences for athlete victims, have been provided, informing both abuse prevention work and coach education. To date, however, no study has provided empirical support for multiple associations or identified patterns of sex offending in sport in ways that might allow comparisons with research-generated models of offending outside sport. This paper reports on an analysis of 159 cases of criminally defined sexual abuse, reported in the print media over a period of 15 years. The main aim of the study was to identify the nature of sex offending in sport focusing on the methods and locations of offences. The data were analysed using multidimensional scaling (MDS), as a data reduction method, in order to identify the underlying themes within the abuse and explore the inter-relationships of behaviour, victim and context variables. The findings indicate that there are specific themes that can be identified within the perpetrator strategies that include ‘intimate’, ‘aggressive’, and ‘’dominant’ modes of interaction. The same patterns that are described here within the specific context of sport are consistent with themes that emerge from similar behavioural analyses of rapists (Canter & Heritage, 1990; Bishopp, 2003) and child molester groups (Canter, Hughes & Kirby, 1998). These patterns show a correspondence to a broader behavioural model – the interpersonal circumplex (e.g., Leary 1957). Implications for accreditation and continuing professional education of sport psychologists are noted

Suicide attempts in clinical trials with paroxetine randomised against placebo

BACKGROUND: Inclusion of unpublished data on the effects of antidepressants on children has suggested unfavourable risk-benefit profiles for some of the drugs. Recent meta-analyses of studies on adults have indicated similar effects. We obtained unpublished data for paroxetine that have so far not been included in these analyses. METHODS: The documentation for drug registration contained 16 studies in which paroxetine had been randomised against placebo. We registered the number of suicides, suicide attempts and ideation. We corrected for duration of medication and placebo treatment and used a standard Bayesian statistical approach with varying priors. RESULTS: There were 7 suicide attempts in patients on the drug and 1 in a patient on placebo. We found that the probability of increased intensity of suicide attempts per year in adults taking paroxetine was 0.90 with a "pessimistic" prior, and somewhat less with two more neutral priors. CONCLUSION: Our findings support the results of recent meta-analyses. Patients and doctors should be warned that the increased suicidal activity observed in children and adolescents taking certain antidepressant drugs may also be present in adults

Inflationary perturbation theory is geometrical optics in phase space

A pressing problem in comparing inflationary models with observation is the accurate calculation of correlation functions. One approach is to evolve them using ordinary differential equations ("transport equations"), analogous to the Schwinger-Dyson hierarchy of in-out quantum field theory. We extend this approach to the complete set of momentum space correlation functions. A formal solution can be obtained using raytracing techniques adapted from geometrical optics. We reformulate inflationary perturbation theory in this language, and show that raytracing reproduces the familiar "delta N" Taylor expansion. Our method produces ordinary differential equations which allow the Taylor coefficients to be computed efficiently. We use raytracing methods to express the gauge transformation between field fluctuations and the curvature perturbation, zeta, in geometrical terms. Using these results we give a compact expression for the nonlinear gauge-transform part of fNL in terms of the principal curvatures of uniform energy-density hypersurfaces in field space.Comment: 22 pages, plus bibliography and appendix. v2: minor changes, matches version published in JCA

The Archaeology of the Siege of Fort William, 1746

In August and September 2007, the Centre for Battlefield Archaeology and Glasgow University Archaeological Research Division (GUARD) conducted a programme of archaeological investigation of the remains of the old fort at Fort William and part of The Parade in the town of Fort William on the west coast of Scotland. The fieldwork involved geophysical survey at the fort and The Parade, followed by trial excavation of anomalies. Trial trenches at The Parade exposed several rich midden deposits and material providing evidence for the burning of the town of Maryburgh, as suggested in contemporary accounts in 1746. The results at the fort were not so positive, as most traces of the garrison were removed in the 19th and 20th centuries through its use as a railway yard; however, a trench outside the fort suggests survival of midden deposits pre-dating this period of destruction. This part-Heritage Lottery assisted project was a Highland 2007 initiative supported by Lochaber Community Fund and Highland Council, and included active participation on the part of the local community, including school groups and metal detectorists