Simulated trends in ionosphere-thermosphere climate due to predicted main magnetic field changes from 2015 to 2065

The strength and structure of the Earth's magnetic field is gradually changing. During the next 50 years the dipole moment is predicted to decrease by ∼3.5%, with the South Atlantic Anomaly expanding, deepening, and continuing to move westward, while the magnetic dip poles move northwestward. We used simulations with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model to study how predicted changes in the magnetic field will affect the climate of the thermosphere-ionosphere system from 2015 to 2065. The global mean neutral density in the thermosphere is expected to increase slightly, by up to 1% on average or up to 2% during geomagnetically disturbed conditions (Kp ≥ 4). This is due to an increase in Joule heating power, mainly in the Southern Hemisphere. Global mean changes in total electron content (TEC) range from −3% to +4%, depending on season and UT. However, regional changes can be much larger, up to about ±35% in the region of ∼45◦S to 45◦N and 110◦W to 0◦Wduring daytime. Changes in the vertical ⃗E × ⃗B drift are the most important driver of changes in TEC, although other plasma transport processes also play a role. A reduction in the low-latitude upward ⃗E × ⃗B drift weakens the equatorial ionization anomaly in the longitude sector of ∼105–60◦W, manifesting itself as a local increase in electron density over Jicamarca (12.0◦S, 76.9◦W). The predicted increase in neutral density associated with main magnetic field changes is very small compared to observed trends and other trend drivers, but the predicted changes in TEC could make a significant contribution to observationally detectable trends

The response of the ionosphere-thermosphere system to the August 21, 2017 solar eclipse

We simulated the effects of the 21 August 2017 total solar eclipse on the ionosphere‐thermosphere system with the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM). The simulations demonstrate that the horizontal neutral wind modifies the eclipse‐induced reduction in total electron content (TEC), spreading it equatorward and westward of the eclipse path. The neutral wind also affects the neutral temperature and mass density responses through advection and the vertical wind modifies them further through adiabatic heating/cooling and compositional changes. The neutral temperature response lags behind totality by about 35 min, indicating an imbalance between heating and cooling processes during the eclipse, while the ion and electron temperature responses have almost no lag, indicating they are in quasi steady state. Simulated ion temperature and vertical drift responses are weaker than observed by the Millstone Hill Incoherent Scatter Radar, while simulated reductions in electron density and temperature are stronger. The model misses the observed posteclipse enhancement in electron density, which could be due to the lack of a plasmasphere in GITM. The simulated TEC response appears too weak compared to Global Positioning System TEC measurements, but this might be because the model does not include electron content above 550‐km altitude. The simulated response in the neutral wind after the eclipse is too weak compared to Fabry Perot interferometer observations in Cariri, Brazil, which suggests that GITM recovers too quickly after the eclipse. This could be related to GITM heating processes being too strong and electron densities being too high at low latitudes

Setting the stage for individualized therapy in hemophilia: what role can pharmacokinetics play?

Replacement therapy with clotting factor concentrates (CFC) is the mainstay of treatment in hemophilia. Its widespread application has led to a dramatic decrease in morbidity and mortality in patients, with concomitant improvement of quality of life. However, dosing is challenging and costs are high. This review discusses benefits and limitations of pharmacokinetic (PK)-guided dosing of replacement therapy as an alternative for current dosing regimens. Dosing of CFC is now primarily based on body weight and based on its in vivo recovery (IVR). Benefits of PK-guided dosing include individualization of treatment with better targeting, more flexible blood sampling, increased insight into association of coagulation factor levels and bleeding, and potential overall lowering of overall costs. Limitations include a slight burden for the patient, and availability of closely collaborating, experienced clinical pharmacologists

Analysis and attribution of climate change in the upper atmosphere from 1950 to 2015 simulated by WACCM-X

Monitoring climatic changes in the thermosphere and ionosphere and understanding their causes is important for practical purposes. To support this effort and facilitate comparisons between observations and model results, a long transient simulation with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtension (WACCM‐X) from 1950 to 2015 was conducted. This simulation used realistic variations in solar and geomagnetic activity, main magnetic field changes, and trace gas emissions, including CO2, thereby including all known drivers of upper atmosphere climate change. Analysis of the full 1950‐2015 interval with a standard multi‐linear regression approach demonstrated difficulties in removing solar cycle effects sufficiently to obtain reliable trends. Results improved when an (F10.7a)2 was included in the regression model, in addition to terms for F10.7a, KP, and the trend itself. Comparisons with previous studies and analysis of spatial variations in trend estimates confirmed that the increase in CO2 concentration is the main driver of trends in thermosphere temperature and density, but at high (magnetic) latitudes effects of main magnetic field changes play a role as well, especially in the Northern hemisphere. Spatial patterns of trends in hmF2, NmF2, and total electron content indicate a superposition of CO2 and geomagnetic field effects, with the latter dominating trends in the region of ~50°S‐20°N, ~60°W‐20°E. Additional model experiments to investigate the indirect dynamical effects of climate change in the lower atmosphere (100 km) suggested that these effects are small and insignificant. However, current model limitations could mean that these effects are underestimated

Mental rotation ability predicts the acquisition of basic endovascular skills

Abstract Due to the increasing complexity of diseases in the aging population and rapid progress in catheter-based technology, the demands on operators’ skills in conducting endovascular interventions (EI) has increased dramatically, putting more emphasis on training. However, it is not well understood which factors influence learning and performance. In the present study, we examined the ability of EI naïve medical students to acquire basic catheter skills and the role of pre-existing cognitive ability and manual dexterity in predicting performance. Nineteen medical students practised an internal carotid artery angiography during a three-day training on an endovascular simulator. Prior to the training they completed a battery of tests. Skill acquisition was assessed using quantitative and clinical performance measures; the outcome measures from the test battery were used to predict the learning rate. The quantitative metrics indicated that participants’ performance improved significantly across the training, but the clinical evaluation revealed that participants did not significantly improve on the more complex part of the procedure. Mental rotation ability (MRA) predicted quantitative, but not clinical performance. We suggest that MRA tests in combination with simulator sessions could be used to assess the trainee’s early competence level and tailor the training to individual needs

A scenario of planet erosion by coronal radiation

Context: According to theory, high-energy emission from the coronae of cool stars can severely erode the atmospheres of orbiting planets. No observational tests of the long term effects of erosion have yet been made. Aims: To analyze the current distribution of planetary mass with X-ray irradiation of the atmospheres in order to make an observational assessment of the effects of erosion by coronal radiation. Methods: We study a large sample of planet-hosting stars with XMM-Newton, Chandra and ROSAT; make a careful identification of X-ray counterparts; and fit their spectra to make accurately measurements of the stellar X-ray flux. Results: The distribution of the planetary masses with X-ray flux suggests that erosion has taken place: most surviving massive planets, (M_p sin i >1.5 M_J), have been exposed to lower accumulated irradiation. Heavy erosion during the initial stages of stellar evolution is followed by a phase of much weaker erosion. A line dividing these two phases could be present, showing a strong dependence on planet mass. Although a larger sample will be required to establish a well-defined erosion line, the distribution found is very suggestive. Conclusions: The distribution of planetary mass with X-ray flux is consistent with a scenario in which planet atmospheres have suffered the effects of erosion by coronal X-ray and EUV emission. The erosion line is an observational constraint to models of atmospheric erosion.Comment: A&A 511, L8 (2010). 4 pages, 3 figures, 1 online table (included). Language edited; corrected a wrong unit conversion (g/s -> M_J/Gyr); corrected values in column 12 of Table 1 (slightly underestimated in first version), and Figure 2 updated accordingl

Performance of factor IX extended half-life product measurements in external quality control assessment programs

Background: Patients with hemophilia B are increasingly treated with extended half-life (EHL) factor IX (FIX) concentrates. For the laboratory, introduction of these EHL concentrates presents a major challenge. To understand the variation in FIX activity levels, all available diagnostic assays need to be directly compared. Methods: The ECAT, UKNEQAS, and RCPAQAP have collaboratively performed a global survey to evaluate the quality of FIX measurements using FIX deficient plasma samples spiked with recombinant FIX (rFIX), rFIXFP, rFIXFc, and N9-GP to levels at typical FIX trough (6 IU/dL) and peak levels (60 IU/dL). Participants were asked to use their routine protocols, using one-stage assays (OSA) or chromogenic assays (CA). Results: In samples spiked with 6 IU/dL product, median (25%-75% range) FIX activity levels (OSA), were 8.0 IU/dL (7.0-9.2) for rFIX, 6.0 IU/dL (4.0-7.1) for rFIXFP, 6.6 IU/dL (5.5-8.0) for rFIXFc, and 4.9 IU/dL (3.5-8.4) for N9-GP. In samples spiked with 60 IU/dL, FIX activity levels measured (using OSA) was 63.0 IU/dL (59.9-67.0) for rFIX, 42.5 IU/dL (28.2-47.0) for rFIXFP, 50.0 IU/dL (45.0-55.0) for rFIXFc, and 34.0 IU/dL (24.8-67.5) for N9-GP. Considerable differences were observed between reagents for all samples. With CA, there was also quite some variation, but no differences between reagents. Conclusion: Large variation is observed in the measurement of FIX activity levels after administration of rFIX and EHL FIX products. For N9-GP, most silica-based assays show especially high levels. It is essential to standardize and improve reliability of measurements of these concentrates as diagnosis and treatment monitoring is based on these results