Can epidemic models describe the diffusion of topics across disciplines?

This paper introduces a new approach to describe the spread of research topics across disciplines using epidemic models. The approach is based on applying individual-based models from mathematical epidemiology to the diffusion of a research topic over a contact network that represents knowledge flows over the map of science—as obtained from citations between ISI Subject Categories. Using research publications on the protein class kinesin as a case study, we report a better fit between model and empirical data when using the citation-based contact network. Incubation periods on the order of 4–15.5 years support the view that, whilst research topics may grow very quickly, they face difficulties to overcome disciplinary boundaries

The effect of network topology on optimal exploration strategies and the evolution of cooperation in a mobile population

We model a mobile population interacting over an underlying spatial structure using a Markov movement model. Interactions take the form of public goods games, and can feature an arbitrary group size. Individuals choose strategically to remain at their current location or to move to a neighbouring location, depending upon their exploration strategy and the current composition of their group. This builds upon previous work where the underlying structure was a complete graph (i.e. there was effectively no structure). Here, we consider alternative network structures and a wider variety of, mainly larger, populations. Previously, we had found when cooperation could evolve, depending upon the values of a range of population parameters. In our current work, we see that the complete graph considered before promotes stability, with populations of cooperators or defectors being relatively hard to replace. By contrast, the star graph promotes instability, and often neither type of population can resist replacement. We discuss potential reasons for this in terms of network topology

Can epidemic models describe the diffusion of research topics across disciplines?

This paper introduces a new approach to describe the spread of research topics across disciplines using epidemic models. The approach is based on applying individual-based models from mathematical epidemiology to the diffusion of a research topic over a contact network that represents knowledge flows over the map of science –as obtained from citations between ISI Subject Categories. Using research publications on the protein class kinesin as a case study, we report a better fit between model and empirical data when using the citation-based contact network. Incubation periods on the order of 4 to 15.5 years support the view that, whilst research topics may grow very quickly, they face difficulties to overcome disciplinary boundaries

Non-converging hysteretic cycles in random spin networks

Behavior of hysteretic trajectories for cyclical input is investigated as a function of the internal structure of a system modeled by the classical random network of binary spins. Different regimes of hysteretic behavior are discovered for different network connectivity and topology. Surprisingly, hysteretic trajectories which do not converge at all are observed. They are shown to be associated with the presence of specific topological elements in the network structure, particularly with the fully interconnected spin groups of size equal or greater than 4.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Modelling Evolution in Structured Populations Involving Multiplayer Interactions

We consider models of evolution in structured populations involving multiplayer games. Whilst also discussing other models, we focus on the modelling framework developed by Broom and Rychtář (J Theor Biol 302:70–80, 2012) onwards. This includes key progress so far, the main gaps and limitations, the relationship and synergies with other models and a discussion of the direction of future work. In this regard as well as discussing existing work, there is some new research on the applicability and robustness of current models with respect to using them to model real populations. This is an important potential advance, as previously all of the work has been entirely theoretical. In particular, the most complex models will have many parameters, and we concentrate on considering simpler versions with a small number of parameters which still possess the key features which would make them applicable. We find that these models are generally robust, in particular issues that can arise related to small payoff changes at critical values and removal of pivotal vertices would have similar effects on other modelling system including evolutionary graph theory. These often occur where it can be argued that there is a lack of robustness in the real system that the model faithfully picks up, and so is not a problematic feature

The effect of fight cost structure on fighting behaviour involving simultaneous decisions and variable investment levels

In the “producer–scrounger” model, a producer discovers a resource and is in turn discovered by a second individual, the scrounger, who attempts to steal it. This resource can be food or a territory, and in some situations, potentially divisible. In a previous paper we considered a producer and scrounger competing for an indivisible resource, where each individual could choose the level of energy that they would invest in the contest. The higher the investment, the higher the probability of success, but also the higher the costs incurred in the contest. In that paper decisions were sequential with the scrounger choosing their strategy before the producer. In this paper we consider a version of the game where decisions are made simultaneously. For the same cost functions as before, we analyse this case in detail, and then make comparisons between the two cases. Finally we discuss some real examples with potentially variable and asymmetric energetic investments, including intraspecific contests amongst spiders and amongst parasitoid wasps. In the case of the spiders, detailed estimates of energetic expenditure are available which demonstrate the asymmetric values assumed in our models. For the wasps the value of the resource can affect the probabilities of success of the defender and attacker, and differential energetic investment can be inferred. In general for real populations energy usage varies markedly depending upon crucial parameters extrinsic to the individual such as resource value and intrinsic ones such as age, and is thus an important factor to consider when modelling

The effect of fight cost structure on fighting behaviour

A common feature of animal populations is the stealing by animals of resources such as food from other animals. This has previously been the subject of a range of modelling approaches, one of which is the so called "producer-scrounger" model. In this model a producer finds a resource that takes some time to be consumed, and some time later a (generally) conspecific scrounger discovers the producer with its resource and potentially attempts to steal it. In this paper we consider a variant of this scenario where each individual can choose to invest an amount of energy into this contest, and the level of investment of each individual determines the probability of it winning the contest, but also the additional cost it has to bear. We analyse the model for a specific set of cost functions and maximum investment levels and show how the evolutionarily stable behaviour depends upon them. In particular we see that for high levels of maximum investment, the producer keeps the resource without a fight for concave cost functions, but for convex functions the scrounger obtains the resource (albeit at some cost)

Long-term weight loss maintenance and management following a VLCD: a 3-year outcome.

Background: Effective weight loss treatment is important as obesity has severe health and socioeconomic repercussions. Emerging evidence suggests that rapid initial weight loss results in better long-term weight loss maintenance. This remains controversial and contradicts current recommendations for slower weight loss. Aim: To determine the effect of a very low calorie diet (VLCD) with group-based behaviour therapy on weight loss and long-term weight management by means of a retrospective database analysis. Methods: Data for this retrospective analysis included participants who embarked on the LighterLife Total VLCD programme between 2007 and 2010, and whose weights at baseline and at least 12 months were available (n = 5965). Results: Data were available for 5965 individuals at 1 year, 2044 at 2 years and 580 at 3 years. At baseline, the majority of individuals were Caucasian (n = 5155), female (n = 5419), ≥ 40 years old (n = 4272), 49% were within the body mass index (BMI) range of 30-35 kg/m2 while 51% had a BMI > 35 kg/m2. The average initial weight of the whole cohort was 99.1 kg (SD 16.6). Initial weight and BMI at entry onto programme, as well as numbers of weeks of weight loss were all significantly associated with weight loss achieved on the first weight loss attempt. Weight lost during the initial weight loss phase was the only factor, which was significantly associated with percentage weight loss maintenance for years 1, 2, and 3. Conclusion: The findings of this retrospective analysis suggest that provided a longer term weight loss management programme is adhered to, large amounts of initial weight loss can result in important longer term weight loss maintenance in motivated individuals

The effects of parasitism and body length on positioning within wild fish shoals

The influence of body length and parasitism on the positioning behaviour of individuals in wild fish shoals was investigated by a novel means of capturing entire shoals of the banded killifish (Fundulus diaphanus, Lesueur) using a grid-net that maintained the two-dimensional positions of individuals within shoals. Fish in the front section of a shoal were larger than those in the rear. Individuals parasitized by the digenean trematode (Crassiphiala bulboglossa, Haitsma) showed a tendency to occupy the front of shoals. Parasitized fish were also found more in peripheral positions than central ones in a significant number of shoals. Shoal geometry was affected by the overall parasite prevalence of shoal members; shoals with high parasite prevalence displayed increasingly phallanx-like shoal formations, whereas shoals with low prevalence were more elliptical. There was no relationship between body length and parasite abundance or prevalence in the fish population which suggests body length and parasite status are independent predictors of positioning behaviour. Solitary individuals found outside shoals were both more likely to be parasitized and had higher parasite abundance than individuals engaged in shoaling. Differences in the shoaling behaviour of parasitized and unparasitized fish are discussed in the context of the adaptive manipulation hypothesis

Network topology and movement cost, not updating mechanism, determine the evolution of cooperation in mobile structured populations

Evolutionary models are used to study the self-organisation of collective action, often incorporating population structure due to its ubiquitous presence and long-known impact on emerging phenomena. We investigate the evolution of multiplayer cooperation in mobile structured populations, where individuals move strategically on networks and interact with those they meet in groups of variable size. We find that the evolution of multiplayer cooperation primarily depends on the network topology and movement cost while using different stochastic update rules seldom influences evolutionary outcomes. Cooperation robustly co-evolves with movement on complete networks and structure has a partially detrimental effect on it. These findings contrast an established principle from evolutionary graph theory that cooperation can only emerge under some update rules and if the average degree is lower than the reward-to-cost ratio and the network far from complete. We find that group-dependent movement erases the locality of interactions, suppresses the impact of evolutionary structural viscosity on the fitness of individuals, and leads to assortative behaviour that is much more powerful than viscosity in promoting cooperation. We analyse the differences remaining between update rules through a comparison of evolutionary outcomes and fixation probabilities