1971: Economic Outlook and Uncertainties

macroeconomics, economic outlook, 1971

Consumer Durable Spending: Explanation and Prediction

macroeconomics, consumer spending

From Single-thread to Multithreaded: An Efficient Static Analysis Algorithm

A great variety of static analyses that compute safety properties of single-thread programs have now been developed. This paper presents a systematic method to extend a class of such static analyses, so that they handle programs with multiple POSIX-style threads. Starting from a pragmatic operational semantics, we build a denotational semantics that expresses reasoning a la assume-guarantee. The final algorithm is then derived by abstract interpretation. It analyses each thread in turn, propagating interferences between threads, in addition to other semantic information. The combinatorial explosion, ensued from the explicit consideration of all interleavings, is thus avoided. The worst case complexity is only increased by a factor n compared to the single-thread case, where n is the number of instructions in the program. We have implemented prototype tools, demonstrating the practicality of the approach

The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions, and Foreign Policy

The University Archives has determined that this item is of continuing value to OSU's history.In this book, Hymans explores why few states have acquired nuclear weapons even though dozens have long been capable of doing so. He finds that the key to this surprising historical pattern lies not in externally imposed constraints, but in state leaders’ conceptions of the national identity.Ohio State University. Mershon Center for International Security StudiesEvent webpage, streaming video, event photo

The Measurement and Determination of Loanable-Funds Saving

macroeconomics, saving, capital formation, interest

Outlawing The Use Of Refugees As Tools Of Foreign Policy

Assume that you are the dictator of a small country adjacent to a prosperous first world nation. You have little interaction with this nation because it objects to the manner in which you maintain control of the dissidents in your country. However, there are internal policies of the prosperous nation that, if changed, could bring an economic windfall to your country

On the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points

macroeconomics, cyclical turning points

Proscribiendo El Uso De Refugiados Como Instrumentos De La Politica Extranjera

Presuma que usted es el dictador de un pais pequefio adyacente a una naci6n pr6spera e industrializada. Usted tiene poca interacci6n con esta naci6n porque objeta a la manera en que usted mantiene control de los disidentes en su pafs. Pero hay politicas internas de la naci6n pr6spera que, si cambiadas, pueden traer un beneficio econ6mico a su pais

Do Too Many Chefs Really Spoil the Broth? The European Commission, Bureaucratic Politics and European Integration, CES Germany & Europe Working Papers, No. 09.2, 5 August 1999

There is a puzzling, little-remarked contradiction in scholarly views of the European Commission. On the one hand, the Commission is seen as the maestro of European integration, gently but persistently guiding both governments and firms toward Brussels. On the other hand, the Commission is portrayed as a headless bunch of bickering fiefdoms who can hardly be bothered by anything but their own in­ ternecine turf wars. The reason these very different views of the same institution have so seldom come into conflict is quite apparent: EU studies has a set of relatively autonomous and poorly integrated sub­ fields that work at different levels of analysis. Those scholars holding the "heroic" view of the Com­ mission are generally focused on the contest between national and supranational levels that character­ ized the 1992 program and subsequent major steps toward European integration. By contrast, those scholars with the "bureaucratic politics" view are generally authors of case studies or legislative his­ tories of individual EU directives or decisions. However, the fact that these twO images of the Commis­ sion are often two ships passing in the night hardly implies that there is no dispute. Clearly both views cannot be right; but then, how can we explain the significant support each enjoys from the empirical record? The CommiSSion, perhaps the single most important supranational body in the world, certainly deserves better than the schizophrenic interpretation the EU studies community has given it. In this paper, I aim to make a contribution toward the unraveling of this paradox. In brief, the argument I make is as follows: the European Commission can be effective in pursuit of its broad integration goals in spite of, and even because of, its internal divisions. The folk wisdom that too many chefs spoil the broth may often be true, but it need not always be so. The paper is organized as follows. 1 begin with an elaboration of the theoretical position briefly out­ lined above. 1 then tum to a case study from the major Commission efforts to restructure the computer industry in the context of its 1992 program. The computer sector does not merely provide interesting, random illustrations of the hypothesis 1 have advanced. Rather, as Wayne Sandholtz and John Zysman have stressed, the Commission's efforts on informatics formed one of the most crucial parts of the en­ tire 1992 program, and so the Commission's success in "Europeanizing" these issues had significant ripple effects across the entire European political economy. I conclude with some thoughts on the fol­ lowing question: now that the Commission has succeeded in bringing the world to its doorstep, does its bureaucratic division still serve a useful purpose