Orbital tuning, eccentricity, and the frequency modulation of climatic precession

The accuracy of geologic chronologies can, in principle, be improved through orbital tuning, the systematic adjustment of a chronology to bring the associated record into greater alignment with an orbitally derived signal. It would be useful to have a general test for the success of orbital tuning, and one proposal has been that eccentricity ought to covary with the amplitude envelope associated with precession variability recorded in tuned geologic records. A common procedure is to filter a tuned geologic record so as to pass precession period variability and compare the amplitude modulation of the resulting signal against eccentricity. There is a reasonable expectation for such a relationship to be found in paleoclimate records because the amplitude of precession forcing depends upon eccentricity. However, there also exists a relationship between eccentricity and the frequency of precession such that orbital tuning generates eccentricity-like amplitude modulation in filtered signals, regardless of the accuracy of the chronology or the actual presence of precession. This relationship results from the celestial mechanics governing eccentricity and precession and from the interaction between frequency modulation and amplitude modulation caused by filtering. When the eccentricity of Earth's orbit is small, the frequency of climatic precession undergoes large variations and less precession energy is passed through a narrow-band filter. Furthermore, eccentricity-like amplitude modulation is routinely obtained from pure noise records that are orbitally tuned to precession and then filtered. We conclude that the presence of eccentricity-like amplitude modulation in precession-filtered records does not support the accuracy of orbitally tuned time scales

Glacial Variability Over the Last Two Million Years: An Extended Depth-Derived Agemodel, Continuous Obliquity Pacing, and the Pleistocene Progression

An agemodel not relying upon orbital assumptions is estimated over the last 2 Ma using depth in marine sediment cores as a proxy for time. Agemodel uncertainty averages +/- 10 Ka in the early Pleistocene (similar to 2-1 Ma) and +/- 7 Ka in the late Pleistocene (similar to 1 Ma to the present). Twelve benthic and five planktic delta O-18 records are pinned to the agemodel and averaged together to provide a record of glacial variability. Major deglaciation features are identified over the last 2 Ma and a remarkable 33 out of 36 occur when Earth's obliquity is anomalously large. During the early Pleistocene deglaciations occur nearly every obliquity cycle giving a 40 Ka timescale, while late Pleistocene deglaciations more often skip one or two obliquity beats, corresponding to 80 or 120 Ka glacial cycles which, on average, give the similar to 100 Ka variability. This continuous obliquity pacing indicates that the glacial theory can be simplified. An explanation for the similar to 100 Ka glacial cycles only requires a change in the likelihood of skipping an obliquity cycle, rather than new sources of long-period variability. Furthermore, changes in glacial variability are not marked by any single transition so much as they exhibit a steady progression over the entire Pleistocene. The mean, variance, skewness, and timescale associated with the glacial cycles all exhibit an approximately linear trend over the last 2 Ma. A simple model having an obliquity modulated threshold and only three adjustable parameters is shown to reproduce the trends, timing, and spectral evolution associated with the Pleistocene glacial variability.Earth and Planetary Science

Tropical Cooling and the Onset of North American Glaciation

We offer a test of the idea that gradual cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific led to cooling of North America and the initiation of glaciation ~3 Myr ago. Using modern climate data we estimate how warming of the eastern tropical Pacific affects North American temperature and ice-ablation. Assuming that the modern relationship holds over the past millions of years, a ~4°C warmer eastern tropical Pacific between 3–5 Ma would increase ablation in northern North America by approximately two meters per year. By comparison, a similar estimate of the ablation response to variations in Earth's obliquity gives less than half the magnitude of the tropically-induced change. Considering that variations in Earth's obliquity appear sufficient to initiate glaciations between ~1–3 Ma, we infer that the warmer eastern equatorial Pacific prior to 3 Ma suffices to preclude glaciation.Earth and Planetary Science

Early Pleistocene Glacial Cycles and the Integrated Summer Insolation Forcing

Long-term variations in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation are generally thought to control glaciation. But the intensity of summer insolation is primarily controlled by 20,000-year cycles in the precession of the equinoxes, whereas early Pleistocene glacial cycles occur at 40,000-year intervals, matching the period of changes in Earth’s obliquity. The resolution of this 40,000-year problem is that glaciers are sensitive to insolation integrated over the duration of the summer. The integrated summer insolation is primarily controlled by obliquity and not precession because, by Kepler’s second law, the duration of the summer is inversely proportional to Earth’s distance from the Sun.Earth and Planetary Science

Compensation between Model Feedbacks and Curtailment of Climate Sensitivity

The spread in climate sensitivity obtained from 12 general circulation model runs used in the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicates a 95% confidence interval of $2.1^{\circ}-5.5^{\circ}C$, but this reflects compensation between model feedbacks. In particular, cloud feedback strength negatively covaries with the albedo feedback as well as with the combined water vapor plus lapse rate feedback. If the compensation between feedbacks is removed, the 95% confidence interval for climate sen- sitivity expands to $1.9^{\circ}-8.0^{\circ}C$,. Neither of the quoted 95% intervals adequately reflects the understanding of climate sensitivity, but their differences illustrate that model interdependencies must be understood before model spread can be correctly interpreted. The degree of negative covariance between feedbacks is unlikely to result from chance alone. It may, however, result from the method by which the feedbacks were estimated, physical relationships represented in the models, or from conditioning the models upon some combination of observations and expectations. This compensation between model feedbacks when taken together with indications that variations in radiative forcing and the rate of ocean heat uptake play a similar compensatory role in models suggests that conditioning of the models acts to curtail the intermodel spread in climate sensitivity. Observations used to condition the models ought to be explicitly stated, or there is the risk of doubly calling on data for purposes of both calibration and evaluation. Conditioning the models upon individual expectation (e.g., anchoring to the Charney range of $3^{\circ} \pm 1.5^{\circ} C$, to the extent that it exists, greatly complicates statistical interpretation of the intermodel spread.Earth and Planetary Science

Peculiarly pleasant weather for US maize.

Continuation of historical trends in crop yield are critical to meeting the demands of a growing and more affluent world population. Climate change may compromise our ability to meet these demands, but estimates vary widely, highlighting the importance of understanding historical interactions between yield and climate trends. The relationship between temperature and yield is nuanced, involving differential yield outcomes to warm ([Formula: see text]C) and hot ([Formula: see text]C) temperatures and differing sensitivity across growth phases. Here, we use a crop model that resolves temperature responses according to magnitude and growth phase to show that US maize has benefited from weather shifts since 1981. Improvements are related to lengthening of the growing season and cooling of the hottest temperatures. Furthermore, current farmer cropping schedules are more beneficial in the climate of the last decade than they would have been in earlier decades, indicating statistically significant adaptation to a changing climate of 13 kg·ha-1· decade-1 All together, the better weather experienced by US maize accounts for 28% of the yield trends since 1981. Sustaining positive trends in yield depends on whether improvements in agricultural climate continue and the degree to which farmers adapt to future climates

Reconciling discrepancies between Uk37 and Mg/Ca reconstructions of Holocene marine temperature variability

Significant discrepancies exist between the detrended variability of late-Holocene marine temperatures inferred from Mg/Ca and Uk37 proxies, with the former showing substantially more centennial-scale variation than the latter. Discrepancies exceed that attributable to differences in location and persist across various calibrations, indicating that they are intrinsic to the proxy measurement. We demonstrate that these discrepancies can be reconciled using a statistical model that accounts for the effects of bioturbation, sampling and measurement noise, and aliasing of seasonal variability. The smaller number of individual samples incorporated into Mg/Ca measurements relative to Uk37 measurements leads to greater aliasing and generally accounts for the differences in the magnitude and distribution of variability. An inverse application of the statistical model is also developed and applied in order to estimate the spectrum of marine temperature variability after correcting for proxy distortions. The correction method is tested on surrogate data and shown to reliably estimate the spectrum of temperature variance when using high-resolution records. Applying this inverse method to the actual Mg/Ca and Uk37 data results in estimates of the spectrum of temperature variance that are consistent. This approach provides a basis by which to accurately estimate the distribution of intrinsic marine temperature variability from marine proxy records

Integrated Summer Insolation Forcing and 40,000-Year Glacial Cycles: The Perspective from an Ice-Sheet/Energy-Balance Model

Although the origins of the 40,000-year glacial cycles during the early Pleistocene are readily attributed to changes in Earth's obliquity (also having a 40,000-year period), the lack of ice-volume variability at precession periods (20,000 years) is difficult to reconcile with most parameterizations of the insolation forcing. It was recently proposed that precession's influence on glaciation is muted because variations in the intensity of summer insolation are counterbalanced by changes in the duration of the summertime, but no climate model has yet been shown to generate obliquity period glacial cycles in response to the seasonal insolation forcing. Here we present a coupled ice-sheet/energy-balance model that reproduces the seasonal cycle and, when run over long time periods, generates glacial variability in response to changes in Earth's orbital configuration. The model is forced by the full seasonal cycle in insolation, and its response can be understood within the context of the integrated summer insolation forcing. The simple fact that obliquity's period is roughly twice as long as that of precession results in a larger amplitude glacial response to obliquity. However, for the model to generate almost exclusively obliquity period glacial variability, two other conditions must be met. First, the ice sheet's ablation zone must reside poleward of ~60 degrees N because insolation intensity is more sensitive to changes in Earth's obliquity at high latitudes. Second, the ablation season must be long enough for precession's opposing influences on summer and fall insolation intensity to counterbalance one another. These conditions are consistent with a warm climate and a thin ice sheet, where the latter is simulated as a response to subglacial sediment deformation. If a colder climate is prescribed, or in the absence of basal motion, ice sheets tend to be larger and undergo greater precession period variability, in keeping with proxy observations of late Pleistocene glaciation.Earth and Planetary Science

On the attribution of weather events to climate change using a fit to extreme value distributions

Increases in extreme weather events are a potentially important consequence of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), yet, are difficult to attribute to ACC because the record length is often similar to, or shorter than, extreme-event return periods. This study is motivated by the ``World Weather Attribution Project'' (WWAP) and their approach of fitting extreme value distribution functions to local observations. The approach calculates the dependence of distribution parameters on the global mean surface temperature (GMST) and uses this dependence to attribute extreme events to ACC. Applying the WWAP method to a large ensemble of climate simulations run without anthropogenic forcing, we still find a strong dependence of distribution parameters on GMST. This dependence results from internal climate variability, such as ENSO, affecting both extreme events and GMST. Therefore, dependence on GMST does not necessarily imply an effect of ACC on extremes. We next re-examine three WWAP attribution cases. We consider whether an extreme value, normal, or log-normal distribution better represents the data; if a GMST-dependence of distribution parameters is justified using a likelihood ratio test; and if a meaningful attribution can be made given errors in GMST dependence. The effects of natural variability on both GMST and extremes make it impossible to attribute the 2020 Siberian Heatwave and Australia's 2020--2021 bushfires to ACC. The small number of data points for the 2019--2021 drought in Madagascar precludes a meaningful attribution analysis. Overall, natural variability and the uncertain relationship between GMST and extremes make attribution using the WWAP approach challenging