Earth observation and geospatial data can predict the relative distribution of village level poverty in the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve, India

There is increasing interest in leveraging Earth Observation (EO) and geospatial data to predict and map aspects of socioeconomic conditions to support survey and census activities. This is particularly relevant for the frequent monitoring required to assess progress towards the UNs' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Sundarban Biosphere Reserve (SBR) is a region of international ecological importance, containing the Indian portion of the world's largest mangrove forest. The region is densely populated and home to over 4.4 million people, many living in chronic poverty with a strong dependence on nature-based rural livelihoods. Such livelihoods are vulnerable to frequent natural hazards including cyclone landfall and storm surges. In this study we examine associations between environmental variables derived from EO and geospatial data with a village level multidimensional poverty metric using random forest machine learning, to provide evidence in support of policy formulation in the field of poverty reduction. We find that environmental variables can predict up to 78% of the relative distribution of the poorest villages within the SBR. Exposure to cyclone hazard was the most important variable for prediction of poverty. The poorest villages were associated with relatively small areas of rural settlement (&lt;∼30%), large areas of agricultural land (&gt;∼50%) and moderate to high cyclone hazard. The poorest villages were also associated with less productive agricultural land than the wealthiest. Analysis suggests villages with access to more diverse livelihood options, and a smaller dependence on agriculture may be more resilient to cyclone hazard. This study contributes to the understanding of poverty-environment dynamics within Low-and middle-income countries and the associations found can inform policy linked to socio-environmental scenarios within the SBR and potentially support monitoring of work towards SDG1 (No Poverty) across the region.</p

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2,3,4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease

Syn- and post-extensional tectonic activity in the Palaeoproterozoic sequences of Broken Hill and Mount Isa and its bearing on reconstructions of Rodinia

Palaeoproterozoic sequences deformed during the 1600 Ma Olary and Isa orogenies in the Broken Hill and Mount Isa terranes preserve an earlier record of syn-extensional magmatism, deformation and low-pressure/high-temperature metamorphism linked to basin formation and normal faulting at upper crustal levels. Crustal extension occurred nearly continuously from 1800 to 1640 Ma and produced several stacked sedimentary basins, the content of which was mainly controlled by growth faulting along the margins of NNW- and NW-trending half-graben. Mid-crustal magmatic rocks intruded and unroofed during the course of extension are commonly mylonitised and were carried to higher structural levels on extensional shear zones active at the time of sedimentation. Metamorphic monazite ages from deformed host rocks of the syn-extensional Sybella Granite at Mount Isa support this interpretation and include a 1675 Ma population that is much too old to be related to either later crustal shortening or the Isan orogeny. This record of near continuous extension at upper and mid-crustal levels is difficult to reconcile with existing reconstructions of Rodinia in which the Broken Hill and Mount Isa terranes are juxtaposed against rocks of similar age in southwest Laurentia that preserve a history of contractional deformation related to terrane accretion, amalgamation and collision. Equally difficult to reconcile are palaeogeographical reconstructions of Australia which place the Broken Hill and Mount Isa terranes adjacent to each other in a back-arc position while maintaining an along-strike continuity with the rocks of southwest Laurentia. In such a configuration, the Mojave, Yavapai, and Mazatzal provinces lie south of the proposed common Palaeoproterozoic suture (Cheyenne Belt) whereas their inferred age equivalents in the Broken Hill and Mount Isa terranes lie north of this former convergent plate margin. An alternative reconstruction of Proterozoic eastern Australia is proposed in which back-arc extension in the Broken Hill and Mount Isa terranes was linked to retreat of a west-dipping (present-day coordinates) subduction zone and associated magmatic arc that now resides partially or wholly within North America. Eastern Australia and Laurentia ceased to be part of a single continental landmass soon after 1800 Ma and thereafter followed increasingly divergent tectonic paths until re-amalgamated during collision at ca. 1600 Ma. Extension in the Broken Hill and Mount Isa terranes produced a North American Basin-and-Range-style crustal architecture that has no obvious counterpart in southwest Laurentia

Can economic and biological management objectives be achieved by the use of MSY-based reference points? A North Sea plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) and sole (Solea solea) case study

We examined the biological and economic impact of changing from management based on single-species limit reference points to one based on alternative targets, using the multispecies multifleet North Sea flatfish fishery. The robustness of reference points was tested against identified changes in plaice and sole biology. Current ICES single-species limit and precautionary biomass and fishing mortality reference points were seldom consistent with each other. Although they were generally robust to biological uncertainty, fishing at Fpa for sole could lead to stock collapse under one biological scenario. Adoption of alternative targets would reduce reliance on current reference points as stocks moved to a more sustainable state. Maximum sustainable yield (MSY), maximum economic yield (MEY), and maximum employment conditions implied different effort levels in the two fleets modelled, and different profits. Ftarget could be achieved with equal effort reductions in both fleets. Changes in stock biology affected the fishing effort required to maximize employment within the fishery, whereas MSY, Fmax, and MEY targets were robust to this uncertainty. Resulting profits and yields did vary widely, however. The selection of target reference points therefore requires stakeholders to define fishery objectives explicitly, against which targets can be evaluated for the resulting trade-offs between risk to stocks, yield, employment, and other social objective

Mossman orogen

The Mossman Orogen is introduced here as a broad-scale crustal element, embracing the development and deformation of voluminous marine sedimentary and igneous rocks at the northeastern Australian continental margin in the Silurian and Devonian. It occupies the northern end of the Tasmanides and is positioned generally to the east of the Neoproterozoic-Ordovician Thomson Orogen. Its development postdates an episode of crustal contraction, the Benambran Orogeny, which has widespread expression in pre-Silurian rocks of the Thomson Orogen in central and northern Queensland. Its development was terminated by general folding and faulting of its component strata during a crustal shortening episode that is regarded here as part of the Tabberabberan Orogeny, which commenced near the end of the Devonian. The Tabberabberan Orogeny in the northern Tasmanides occurred during the late Devonian - early Tournaisian (Henderson 1980, p. 21 ; Glen 2005), rather than Middle Devonian as in the southern Tasmanides (Foster & Gray 2000; Glen 2005). The Mossman Orogen overlaps in time, but is spatially separate from, the New England Orogen , which is thought to extend along its eastern margin