MDL Convergence Speed for Bernoulli Sequences

The Minimum Description Length principle for online sequence estimation/prediction in a proper learning setup is studied. If the underlying model class is discrete, then the total expected square loss is a particularly interesting performance measure: (a) this quantity is finitely bounded, implying convergence with probability one, and (b) it additionally specifies the convergence speed. For MDL, in general one can only have loss bounds which are finite but exponentially larger than those for Bayes mixtures. We show that this is even the case if the model class contains only Bernoulli distributions. We derive a new upper bound on the prediction error for countable Bernoulli classes. This implies a small bound (comparable to the one for Bayes mixtures) for certain important model classes. We discuss the application to Machine Learning tasks such as classification and hypothesis testing, and generalization to countable classes of i.i.d. models.Comment: 28 page

Self-Modification of Policy and Utility Function in Rational Agents

Any agent that is part of the environment it interacts with and has versatile actuators (such as arms and fingers), will in principle have the ability to self-modify -- for example by changing its own source code. As we continue to create more and more intelligent agents, chances increase that they will learn about this ability. The question is: will they want to use it? For example, highly intelligent systems may find ways to change their goals to something more easily achievable, thereby `escaping' the control of their designers. In an important paper, Omohundro (2008) argued that goal preservation is a fundamental drive of any intelligent system, since a goal is more likely to be achieved if future versions of the agent strive towards the same goal. In this paper, we formalise this argument in general reinforcement learning, and explore situations where it fails. Our conclusion is that the self-modification possibility is harmless if and only if the value function of the agent anticipates the consequences of self-modifications and use the current utility function when evaluating the future.Comment: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) 201

The \^G Search for Extraterrestrial Civilizations with Large Energy Supplies. IV. The Signatures and Information Content of Transiting Megastructures

Arnold (2005), Forgan (2013), and Korpela et al. (2015) noted that planet-sized artificial structures could be discovered with Kepler as they transit their host star. We present a general discussion of transiting megastructures, and enumerate ten potential ways their anomalous silhouettes, orbits, and transmission properties would distinguish them from exoplanets. We also enumerate the natural sources of such signatures. Several anomalous objects, such as KIC 12557548 and CoRoT-29, have variability in depth consistent with Arnold's prediction and/or an asymmetric shape consistent with Forgan's model. Since well motivated physical models have so far provided natural explanations for these signals, the ETI hypothesis is not warranted for these objects, but they still serve as useful examples of how nonstandard transit signatures might be identified and interpreted in a SETI context. Boyajian et al. 2015 recently announced KIC 8462852, an object with a bizarre light curve consistent with a "swarm" of megastructures. We suggest this is an outstanding SETI target. We develop the normalized information content statistic $M$ to quantify the information content in a signal embedded in a discrete series of bounded measurements, such as variable transit depths, and show that it can be used to distinguish among constant sources, interstellar beacons, and naturally stochastic or artificial, information-rich signals. We apply this formalism to KIC 12557548 and a specific form of beacon suggested by Arnold to illustrate its utility.Comment: 25 pages, 10 figures. Accepted to Ap

Electron-phonon interaction in the solid form of the smallest fullerene C20_{20}

The electron-phonon coupling of a theoretically devised carbon phase made by assembling the smallest fullerenes C$_{20}$ is calculated from first principles. The structure consists of C$_{20}$ cages in an {\it fcc} lattice interlinked by two bridging carbon atoms in the interstitial tetrahedral sites ({\it fcc}-C$_{22}$). The crystal is insulating but can be made metallic by doping with interstitial alkali atoms. In the compound NaC$_{22}$ the calculated coupling constant $\lambda/N(0)$ is 0.28 eV, a value much larger than in C$_{60}$, as expected from the larger curvature of C$_{20}$. On the basis of the McMillan's formula, the calculated $\lambda$=1.12 and a $\mu^*$ assumed in the range 0.3-0.1 a superconducting T$_c$ in the range 15-55 K is predicted.Comment: 7 page

A Parameter Study of Classical Be Star Disk Models Constrained by Optical Interferometry

We have computed theoretical models of circumstellar disks for the classical Be stars $\kappa$ Dra, $\beta$ Psc, and $\upsilon$ Cyg. Models were constructed using a non-LTE radiative transfer code developed by \citet{sig07} which incorporates a number of improvements over previous treatments of the disk thermal structure, including a realistic chemical composition. Our models are constrained by direct comparison with long baseline optical interferometric observations of the H$\alpha$ emitting regions and by contemporaneous H$\alpha$ line profiles. Detailed comparisons of our predictions with H$\alpha$ interferometry and spectroscopy place very tight constraints on the density distributions for these circumstellar disks.Comment: 10 figures,28 pages, accepted by Ap

AGI and the Knight-Darwin Law: why idealized AGI reproduction requires collaboration

Can an AGI create a more intelligent AGI? Under idealized assumptions, for a certain theoretical type of intelligence, our answer is: “Not without outside help”. This is a paper on the mathematical structure of AGI populations when parent AGIs create child AGIs. We argue that such populations satisfy a certain biological law. Motivated by observations of sexual reproduction in seemingly-asexual species, the Knight-Darwin Law states that it is impossible for one organism to asexually produce another, which asexually produces another, and so on forever: that any sequence of organisms (each one a child of the previous) must contain occasional multi-parent organisms, or must terminate. By proving that a certain measure (arguably an intelligence measure) decreases when an idealized parent AGI single-handedly creates a child AGI, we argue that a similar Law holds for AGIs

Time consistent discounting

A possibly immortal agent tries to maximise its summed discounted rewards over time, where discounting is used to avoid infinite utilities and encourage the agent to value current rewards more than future ones. Some commonly used discount functions lead to time-inconsistent behavior where the agent changes its plan over time. These inconsistencies can lead to very poor behavior. We generalise the usual discounted utility model to one where the discount function changes with the age of the agent. We then give a simple characterisation of time-(in)consistent discount functions and show the existence of a rational policy for an agent that knows its discount function is time-inconsistent

Electron correlation in C_(4N+2) carbon rings: aromatic vs. dimerized structures

The electronic structure of C_(4N+2) carbon rings exhibits competing many-body effects of Huckel aromaticity, second-order Jahn-Teller and Peierls instability at large sizes. This leads to possible ground state structures with aromatic, bond angle or bond length alternated geometry. Highly accurate quantum Monte Carlo results indicate the existence of a crossover between C_10 and C_14 from bond angle to bond length alternation. The aromatic isomer is always a transition state. The driving mechanism is the second-order Jahn-Teller effect which keeps the gap open at all sizes.Comment: Submitted for publication: 4 pages, 3 figures. Corrected figure

Artificial selection reveals the energetic expense of producing larger eggs

This is the final version of the article. Available from BioMed Central via the DOI in this record.BACKGROUND: The amount of resources provided by the mother before birth has important and long-lasting effects on offspring fitness. Despite this, there is a large amount of variation in maternal investment seen in natural populations. Life-history theory predicts that this variation is maintained through a trade-off between the benefits of high maternal investment for the offspring and the costs of high investment for the mother. However, the proximate mechanisms underlying these costs of reproduction are not well understood. Here we used artificial selection for high and low maternal egg investment in a precocial bird, the Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica) to quantify costs of maternal reproductive investment. RESULTS: We show that females from the high maternal investment lines had significantly larger reproductive organs, which explained their overall larger body mass, and resulted in a higher resting metabolic rate (RMR). Contrary to our expectations, this increase in metabolic activity did not lead to a higher level of oxidative damage. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to provide experimental evidence for metabolic costs of increased per offspring investment.The study was financially supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (PP00P3 128386 and 458 PP00P3 157455 to BT)