Assessing the future threat from vivax malaria in the United Kingdom using two markedly different modelling approaches

Background: The world is facing an increased threat from new and emerging diseases, and there is concern that climate change will expand areas suitable for transmission of vector borne diseases. The likelihood of vivax malaria returning to the UK was explored using two markedly different modelling approaches. First, a simple temperature-dependent, process-based model of malaria growth transmitted by Anopheles atroparvus, the historical vector of malaria in the UK. Second, a statistical model using logistic-regression was used to predict historical malaria incidence between 1917 and 1918 in the UK, based on environmental and demographic data. Using findings from these models and saltmarsh distributions, future risk maps for malaria in the UK were produced based on UKCIP02 climate change scenarios. Results: The process-based model of climate suitability showed good correspondence with historical records of malaria cases. An analysis of the statistical models showed that mean temperature of the warmest month of the year was the major factor explaining the distribution of malaria, further supporting the use of the temperature-driven processed-based model. The risk maps indicate that large areas of central and southern England could support malaria transmission today and could increase in extent in the future. Confidence in these predictions is increased by the concordance between the processed-based and statistical models. Conclusion: Although the future climate in the UK is favourable for the transmission of vivax malaria, the future risk of locally transmitted malaria is considered low because of low vector biting rates and the low probability of vectors feeding on a malaria-infected person

On the asymptotic magnitude of subsets of Euclidean space

Magnitude is a canonical invariant of finite metric spaces which has its origins in category theory; it is analogous to cardinality of finite sets. Here, by approximating certain compact subsets of Euclidean space with finite subsets, the magnitudes of line segments, circles and Cantor sets are defined and calculated. It is observed that asymptotically these satisfy the inclusion-exclusion principle, relating them to intrinsic volumes of polyconvex sets.Comment: 23 pages. Version 2: updated to reflect more recent work, in particular, the approximation method is now known to calculate (rather than merely define) the magnitude; also minor alterations such as references adde

Transport and drift-driven plasma flow components in the Alcator C-Mod boundary plasma

Boundary layer flows in the Alcator C-Mod tokamak are systematically examined as magnetic topology (upper versus lower-null) and plasma density are changed. Utilizing a unique set of scanning Langmuir–Mach probes, including one on the high-field side (HFS) midplane, the poloidal variation of plasma flow components in the parallel, diamagnetic and radial directions are resolved in detail. It is found that the plasma flow pattern can be decomposed into two principal parts: (1) a drift-driven component, which lies within a magnetic flux surface and is divergence-free and (2) a transport-driven component, which gives rise to near-sonic parallel flows on the HFS scrape-off layer (SOL). Toroidal rotation, Pfirsch–Schlüter and transport-driven contributions are unambiguously identified. Transport-driven parallel flows are found to dominate the HFS particle fluxes; the total poloidal-directed flow accounts for ~1/3 to all of the ion flux arriving on the inner divertor. As a result, heat convection is found to be an important player in this region, consistent with the observation of divertor asymmetries that depend on the direction of B × ∇B relative to the active x-point. In contrast, the poloidal projection of parallel flow in the low-field SOL largely cancels with E[subscript r] × B flow; toroidal rotation is the dominant plasma motion there. The magnitude of the transport-driven poloidal flow is found to be quantitatively consistent with fluctuation-induced radial particle fluxes on the low-field side (LFS), identifying this as the primary drive mechanism. Fluctuation-induced fluxes on the HFS are found to be essentially zero, excluding turbulent inward transport as the mechanism that closes the circulation loop in this region.United States. Dept. of Energy (Cooperative Agreement DE-FC02-99ER54512

Thermodynamics of an interacting trapped Bose-Einstein gas in the classical field approximation

We present a convenient technique describing the condensate in dynamical equilibrium with the thermal cloud, at temperatures close to the critical one. We show that the whole isolated system may be viewed as a single classical field undergoing nonlinear dynamics leading to a steady state. In our procedure it is the observation process and the finite detection time that allow for splitting the system into the condensate and the thermal cloud.Comment: 4 pages, 4 eps figures, final versio

Primordialists and Constructionists: a typology of theories of religion

This article adopts categories from nationalism theory to classify theories of religion. Primordialist explanations are grounded in evolutionary psychology and emphasize the innate human demand for religion. Primordialists predict that religion does not decline in the modern era but will endure in perpetuity. Constructionist theories argue that religious demand is a human construct. Modernity initially energizes religion, but subsequently undermines it. Unpacking these ideal types is necessary in order to describe actual theorists of religion. Three distinctions within primordialism and constructionism are relevant. Namely those distinguishing: a) materialist from symbolist forms of constructionism; b) theories of origins from those pertaining to the reproduction of religion; and c) within reproduction, between theories of religious persistence and secularization. This typology helps to make sense of theories of religion by classifying them on the basis of their causal mechanisms, chronology and effects. In so doing, it opens up new sightlines for theory and research

Spelling dyslexia:a defict of the visual word form

A patient with spelling dyslexia read both words and text accurately but slowly and laboriously letter by letter. Her performance on a test of lexical decision was slow. She had great difficulty in detecting a 'rogue' letter attached to the beginning or end of a word--for example, ksong--or in parsing two unspaced words, such as applepeach. By contrast she was immune to the effects of interpolating extraneous coloured letters in a word, a manipulation that affects normal readers. Therefore it is argued that this patient had damage to an early stage in the reading process, to the visual word form itself

Impacts of large herbivores on terrestrial ecosystems

Environmental Biolog

Neurosurgical randomized trials in low-and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND: The setting of a randomized trial can determine whether its findings are generalizable and can therefore apply to different settings. The contribution of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to neurosurgical randomized trials has not been systematically described before.OBJECTIVE: To perform a systematic analysis of design characteristics and methodology, funding source, and interventions studied between trials led by and/or conducted in high-income countries (HICs) vs LMICs.METHODS: From January 2003 to July 2016, English-language trials with >5 patients assessing any one neurosurgical procedure against another procedure, nonsurgical treatment, or no treatment were retrieved from MEDLINE, Scopus, and Cochrane Library. Income classification for each country was assessed using the World Bank Atlas method.RESULTS: A total of 73.3% of the 397 studies that met inclusion criteria were led by HICs, whereas 26.7% were led by LMICs. Of the 106 LMIC-led studies, 71 were led by China. If China is excluded, only 8.8% were led by LMICs. HIC-led trials enrolled a median of 92 patients vs a median of 65 patients in LMIC-led trials. HIC-led trials enrolled from 7.6 sites vs 1.8 sites in LMIC-led studies. Over half of LMIC-led trials were institutionally funded (54.7%). The majority of both HIC- and LMIC-led trials evaluated spinal neurosurgery, 68% and 71.7%, respectively.CONCLUSION: We have established that there is a substantial disparity between HICs and LMICs in the number of published neurosurgical trials. A concerted effort to invest in research capacity building in LMICs is an essential step towards ensuring context- and resource-specific high-quality evidence is generated.Scientific Assessment and Innovation in Neurosurgical Treatment Strategie