Increasing flood exposure in the Netherlands: implications for risk financing

The effectiveness of disaster risk management and financing mechanisms depends on an accurate assessment of current and future hazard exposure. The increasing availability of detailed data offers policy makers and the insurance sector new opportunities to understand trends in risk, and to make informed decisions on ways to deal with these trends. In this paper we show how comprehensive property level information can be used for the assessment of exposure to flooding on a national scale, and how this information provides valuable input to discussions on possible risk financing practices. The case study used is the Netherlands, which is one of the countries most exposed to flooding globally, and which is currently undergoing a debate on strategies for the compensation of potential losses. Our results show that flood exposure has increased rapidly between 1960 and 2012, and that the growth of the building stock and its economic value in flood-prone areas has been higher than in non-flood-prone areas. We also find that property values in flood-prone areas are lower than those in non-flood-prone areas. We argue that the increase in the share of economic value located in potential flood-prone areas can have a negative effect on the feasibility of private insurance schemes in the Netherlands. The methodologies and results presented in this study are relevant for many regions around the world where the effects of rising flood exposure create a challenge for risk financing

Lectin staining shows no evidence of involvement of glycocalyx/mucous layer carbohydrate structures in development of celiac disease

The presence of unique carbohydrate structures in the glycocalyx/mucous layer of the intestine may be involved in a susceptibility to celiac disease (CD) by serving as attachment sites for bacteria. This host-microbiota interaction may influence the development of CD and possibly other diseases with autoimmune components. We examined duodenal biopsies from a total of 30 children, of which 10 had both celiac disease (CD) and type 1 diabetes (T1D); 10 had CD alone; and 10 were suspected of having gastrointestinal disease, but had normal duodenal histology (non-CD controls). Patients with both CD and T1D were examined before and after remission following a gluten-free diet. We performed lectin histochemistry using peanut agglutinin (PNA) and Ulex europaeus agglutinin (UEA) staining for Gal-β(1,3)-GalNAc and Fucα1-2Gal-R, respectively, of the glycocalyx/mucous layer. The staining was scored based on dissemination of stained structures on a scale from 0 to 3. Evaluation of the scores revealed no difference between biopsies obtained before and after remission in the group of children with both CD and T1D. A comparison of this pre-remission group with the children who had CD alone or the non-CD controls also showed no significant differences. Based on our material, we found no indication that the presence of Gal-β(1,3)-GalNAc or Fucα1-2Gal-R is involved in the susceptibility to CD, or that the disease process affects the expression of these carbohydrates

A Nordic survey of CT doses in hybrid PET/CT and SPECT/CT examinations

Background Computed tomography (CT) scans are routinely performed in positron emission tomography (PET) and single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) examinations globally, yet few surveys have been conducted to gather national diagnostic reference level (NDRL) data for CT radiation doses in positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) and single photon emission computed tomography/computed tomography (SPECT/CT). In this first Nordic-wide study of CT doses in hybrid imaging, Nordic NDRL CT doses are suggested for PET/CT and SPECT/CT examinations specific to the clinical purpose of CT, and the scope for optimisation is evaluated. Data on hybrid imaging CT exposures and clinical purpose of CT were gathered for 5 PET/CT and 8 SPECT/CT examinations via designed booklet. For each included dataset for a given facility and scanner type, the computed tomography dose index by volume (CTDIvol) and dose length product (DLP) was interpolated for a 75-kg person (referred to as CTDIvol,75kg and DLP75kg). Suggested NDRL (75th percentile) and achievable doses (50th percentile) were determined for CTDIvol,75kg and DLP75kg according to clinical purpose of CT. Differences in maximum and minimum doses (derived for a 75-kg patient) between facilities were also calculated for each examination and clinical purpose. Results Data were processed from 83 scanners from 43 facilities. Data were sufficient to suggest Nordic NDRL CT doses for the following: PET/CT oncology (localisation/characterisation, 15 systems); infection/inflammation (localisation/characterisation, 13 systems); brain (attenuation correction (AC) only, 11 systems); cardiac PET/CT and SPECT/CT (AC only, 30 systems); SPECT/CT lung (localisation/characterisation, 12 systems); bone (localisation/characterisation, 30 systems); and parathyroid (localisation/characterisation, 13 systems). Great variations in dose were seen for all aforementioned examinations. Greatest differences in DLP75kg for each examination, specific to clinical purpose, were as follows: SPECT/CT lung AC only (27.4); PET/CT and SPECT/CT cardiac AC only (19.6); infection/inflammation AC only (18.1); PET/CT brain localisation/characterisation (16.8); SPECT/CT bone localisation/characterisation (10.0); PET/CT oncology AC only (9.0); and SPECT/CT parathyroid localisation/characterisation (7.8). Conclusions Suggested Nordic NDRL CT doses are presented according to clinical purpose of CT for PET/CT oncology, infection/inflammation, brain, PET/CT and SPECT/CT cardiac, and SPECT/CT lung, bone, and parathyroid. The large variation in doses suggests great scope for optimisation in all 8 examinations.Peer reviewe

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and myocarditis or myopericarditis:population based cohort study

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and myocarditis or myopericarditis. DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: Denmark. PARTICIPANTS: 4 931 775 individuals aged 12 years or older, followed from 1 October 2020 to 5 October 2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome, myocarditis or myopericarditis, was defined as a combination of a hospital diagnosis of myocarditis or pericarditis, increased troponin levels, and a hospital stay lasting more than 24 hours. Follow-up time before vaccination was compared with follow-up time 0-28 days from the day of vaccination for both first and second doses, using Cox proportional hazards regression with age as an underlying timescale to estimate hazard ratios adjusted for sex, comorbidities, and other potential confounders. RESULTS: During follow-up, 269 participants developed myocarditis or myopericarditis, of whom 108 (40%) were 12-39 years old and 196 (73%) were male. Of 3 482 295 individuals vaccinated with BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), 48 developed myocarditis or myopericarditis within 28 days from the vaccination date compared with unvaccinated individuals (adjusted hazard ratio 1.34 (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 2.00); absolute rate 1.4 per 100 000 vaccinated individuals within 28 days of vaccination (95% confidence interval 1.0 to 1.8)). Adjusted hazard ratios among female participants only and male participants only were 3.73 (1.82 to 7.65) and 0.82 (0.50 to 1.34), respectively, with corresponding absolute rates of 1.3 (0.8 to 1.9) and 1.5 (1.0 to 2.2) per 100 000 vaccinated individuals within 28 days of vaccination, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio among 12-39 year olds was 1.48 (0.74 to 2.98) and the absolute rate was 1.6 (1.0 to 2.6) per 100 000 vaccinated individuals within 28 days of vaccination. Among 498 814 individuals vaccinated with mRNA-1273 (Moderna), 21 developed myocarditis or myopericarditis within 28 days from vaccination date (adjusted hazard ratio 3.92 (2.30 to 6.68); absolute rate 4.2 per 100 000 vaccinated individuals within 28 days of vaccination (2.6 to 6.4)). Adjusted hazard ratios among women only and men only were 6.33 (2.11 to 18.96) and 3.22 (1.75 to 5.93), respectively, with corresponding absolute rates of 2.0 (0.7 to 4.8) and 6.3 (3.6 to 10.2) per 100 000 vaccinated individuals within 28 days of vaccination, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio among 12-39 year olds was 5.24 (2.47 to 11.12) and the absolute rate was 5.7 (3.3 to 9.3) per 100 000 vaccinated individuals within 28 days of vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination with mRNA-1273 was associated with a significantly increased risk of myocarditis or myopericarditis in the Danish population, primarily driven by an increased risk among individuals aged 12-39 years, while BNT162b2 vaccination was only associated with a significantly increased risk among women. However, the absolute rate of myocarditis or myopericarditis after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination was low, even in younger age groups. The benefits of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination should be taken into account when interpreting these findings. Larger multinational studies are needed to further investigate the risks of myocarditis or myopericarditis after vaccination within smaller subgroups

Speeding Up Microevolution: The Effects of Increasing Temperature on Selection and Genetic Variance in a Wild Bird Population

The authors show that environmental variation may lead to a positive association between the annual strength of selection and expression of genetic variance in a wild bird population, which can speed up microevolution and have important consequences for how fast natural populations adapt to environmental changes