Towards quantifying the increasing role of oceanic heat in sea ice loss in the new Arctic

The loss of Arctic sea ice has emerged as a leading signal of global warming. This, together with acknowledged impacts on other components of the Earth system, has led to the term “the new Arctic.” Global coupled climate models predict that ice loss will continue through the twenty-first century, with implications for governance, economics, security, and global weather. A wide range in model projections reflects the complex, highly coupled interactions between the polar atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere, including teleconnections to lower latitudes. This paper summarizes our present understanding of how heat reaches the ice base from the original sources—inflows of Atlantic and Pacific Water, river discharge, and summer sensible heat and shortwave radiative fluxes at the ocean/ice surface—and speculates on how such processes may change in the new Arctic. The complexity of the coupled Arctic system, and the logistic and technological challenges of working in the Arctic Ocean, require a coordinated interdisciplinary and international program that will not only improve understanding of this critical component of global climate but will also provide opportunities to develop human resources with the skills required to tackle related problems in complex climate systems. We propose a research strategy with components that include 1) improved mapping of the upper- and middepth Arctic Ocean, 2) enhanced quantification of important process, 3) expanded long-term monitoring at key heat-flux locations, and 4) development of numerical capabilities that focus on parameterization of heat-flux mechanisms and their interactions.publishedVersio

The time-dependent transformed Eliassen balanced vortex model of a tropical cyclone.

The time-dependent, transformed Eliassen balanced vortex model of a tropical cyclone is analyzed mathematically and integrated numerically. The simulated vortices have characteristics resembling aspects of real tropical cyclones. Based on the principle of potential vorticity invertibility, the baroclinic model vortex evolves on an f-plane, assumes Boussinesq and hydrostatic approximations, and is posed in absolute angular momentum coordinates with circular symmetry. Theoretical analysis of the model equations is used to derive efficient numerical methods. Linear operator theory is applied to elliptic, diagnostic equations for the tangential velocity potential function and the transverse circulation streamfunction, which are then solved by successive line overrelaxation methods. Equations for the potential vorticity and potential temperature are solved using a fourth-order Runge Kutta method. A maximum growth rate estimated for the potential vorticity equation limits the size of the timestep, yet reveals the presence of exponentially growing modes for given profiles of the thermal forcing. Initial potential vorticity and potential temperature distributions are based on a mesocyclone study. Vortex evolution is computed for a specified forcing that emulates condensational heating and a heating function parameterized in terms of the model variables. The specified heating produces a realistic circulation but does not allow the vortex to decay. When a parameterized heating function is used, the transverse circulation requires external forcing through frictionally induced vertical motion at the surface boundary. Mathematical and physical descriptions of the boundary conditions are discussed and compared; the surface conditions are insufficient for maintenance or amplification of the vortex under the parameterized heating. In addition to analyzing physical and dynamical relationships among model variables, the simulations can be used as a 2-D basic state for a perturbation study using 3-D primitive equations. Such an investigation would illuminate nonaxisymmetric features of hurricanes such as rain bands and outflow jets

Sea ice thermohaline dynamics and biogeochemistry in the Arctic Ocean: Empirical and model results

Large changes in the sea ice regime of the Arctic Ocean have occurred over the last decades justifying the development of models to forecast sea ice physics and biogeochemistry. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the performance of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) to simulate physical and biogeochemical properties at time scales of a few weeks and to use the model to analyze ice algal bloom dynamics in different types of ice. Ocean and atmospheric forcing data and observations of the evolution of the sea ice properties collected from 18 April to 4 June 2015, during the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition, were used to test the CICE model. Our results show the following: (i) model performance is reasonable for sea ice thickness and bulk salinity; good for vertically resolved temperature, vertically averaged Chl a concentrations, and standing stocks; and poor for vertically resolved Chl a concentrations. (ii) Improving current knowledge about nutrient exchanges, ice algal recruitment, and motion is critical to improve sea ice biogeochemical modeling. (iii) Ice algae may bloom despite some degree of basal melting. (iv) Ice algal motility driven by gradients in limiting factors is a plausible mechanism to explain their vertical distribution. (v) Different ice algal bloom and net primary production (NPP) patterns were identified in the ice types studied, suggesting that ice algal maximal growth rates will increase, while sea ice vertically integrated NPP and biomass will decrease as a result of the predictable increase in the area covered by refrozen leads in the Arctic Ocean

Towards quantifying the increasing role of oceanic heat in sea ice loss in the new Arctic

The loss of Arctic sea ice has emerged as a leading signal of global warming. This, together with acknowledged impacts on other components of the Earth system, has led to the term “the new Arctic.” Global coupled climate models predict that ice loss will continue through the twenty-first century, with implications for governance, economics, security, and global weather. A wide range in model projections reflects the complex, highly coupled interactions between the polar atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere, including teleconnections to lower latitudes. This paper summarizes our present understanding of how heat reaches the ice base from the original sources—inflows of Atlantic and Pacific Water, river discharge, and summer sensible heat and shortwave radiative fluxes at the ocean/ice surface—and speculates on how such processes may change in the new Arctic. The complexity of the coupled Arctic system, and the logistic and technological challenges of working in the Arctic Ocean, require a coordinated interdisciplinary and international program that will not only improve understanding of this critical component of global climate but will also provide opportunities to develop human resources with the skills required to tackle related problems in complex climate systems. We propose a research strategy with components that include 1) improved mapping of the upper- and middepth Arctic Ocean, 2) enhanced quantification of important process, 3) expanded long-term monitoring at key heat-flux locations, and 4) development of numerical capabilities that focus on parameterization of heat-flux mechanisms and their interactions