EASY-APP : An artificial intelligence model and application for early and easy prediction of severity in acute pancreatitis

Background Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a potentially severe or even fatal inflammation of the pancreas. Early identification of patients at high risk for developing a severe course of the disease is crucial for preventing organ failure and death. Most of the former predictive scores require many parameters or at least 24 h to predict the severity; therefore, the early therapeutic window is often missed. Methods The early achievable severity index (EASY) is a multicentre, multinational, prospective and observational study (ISRCTN10525246). The predictions were made using machine learning models. We used the scikit-learn, xgboost and catboost Python packages for modelling. We evaluated our models using fourfold cross-validation, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the area under the ROC curve (AUC), and accuracy metrics were calculated on the union of the test sets of the cross-validation. The most critical factors and their contribution to the prediction were identified using a modern tool of explainable artificial intelligence called SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Results The prediction model was based on an international cohort of 1184 patients and a validation cohort of 3543 patients. The best performing model was an XGBoost classifier with an average AUC score of 0.81 +/- 0.033 and an accuracy of 89.1%, and the model improved with experience. The six most influential features were the respiratory rate, body temperature, abdominal muscular reflex, gender, age and glucose level. Using the XGBoost machine learning algorithm for prediction, the SHAP values for the explanation and the bootstrapping method to estimate confidence, we developed a free and easy-to-use web application in the Streamlit Python-based framework (http://easy-app.org/). Conclusions The EASY prediction score is a practical tool for identifying patients at high risk for severe AP within hours of hospital admission. The web application is available for clinicians and contributes to the improvement of the model.Peer reviewe

The characteristics and prognostic role of acute abdominal on-admission pain in acute pancreatitis : A prospective cohort analysis of 1432 cases

Introduction Pain is the most common symptom in acute pancreatitis (AP) and is among the diagnostic criteria. Therefore, we aimed to characterize acute abdominal pain in AP. Methods The Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group prospectively collected multicentre clinical data on 1435 adult AP patients between 2012 and 2017. Pain was characterized by its intensity (mild or intense), duration prior to admission (hours), localization (nine regions of the abdomen) and type (sharp, dull or cramping). Results 97.3% of patients (n = 1394) had pain on admission. Of the initial population with acute abdominal pain, 727 patients answered questions about pain intensity, 1148 about pain type, 1134 about pain localization and 1202 about pain duration. Pain was mostly intense (70%, n = 511/727), characterized by cramping (61%, n = 705/1148), mostly starting less than 24 h prior to admission (56.7%, n = 682/1202). Interestingly, 50.9% of the patients (n = 577/1134) had atypical pain, which means pain other than epigastric or belt-like upper abdominal pain. We observed a higher proportion of peripancreatic fluid collection (19.5% vs. 11.0%; p = 0.009) and oedematous pancreas (8.4% vs. 3.1%; p = 0.016) with intense pain. Sharp pain was associated with AP severity (OR = 2.481 95% CI: 1.550-3.969) and increased mortality (OR = 2.263, 95% CI: 1.199-4.059) compared to other types. Longstanding pain (>72 h) on admission was not associated with outcomes. Pain characteristics showed little association with the patient's baseline characteristics. Conclusion A comprehensive patient interview should include questions about pain characteristics, including pain type. Patients with sharp and intense pain might need special monitoring and tailored pain management. Significance Acute abdominal pain is the leading presenting symptom in acute pancreatitis; however, we currently lack specific guidelines for pain assessment and management. In our cohort analysis, intense and sharp pain on admission was associated with higher odds for severe AP and several systemic and local complications. Therefore, a comprehensive patient interview should include questions about pain characteristics and patients with intense and sharp pain might need closer monitoring.Peer reviewe

Multiple Hits in Acute Pancreatitis : Components of Metabolic Syndrome Synergize Each Other's Deteriorating Effects

Introduction: The incidence of acute pancreatitis (AP) and the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) are growing worldwide. Several studies have confirmed that obesity (OB), hyperlipidemia (HL), or diabetes mellitus (DM) can increase severity, mortality, and complications in AP. However, there is no comprehensive information on the independent or joint effect of MetS components on the outcome of AP. Our aims were (1) to understand whether the components of MetS have an independent effect on the outcome of AP and (2) to examine the joint effect of their combinations. Methods: From 2012 to 2017, 1435 AP cases from 28 centers were included in the prospective AP Registry. Patient groups were formed retrospectively based on the presence of OB, HL, DM, and hypertension (HT). The primary endpoints were mortality, severity, complications of AP, and length of hospital stay. Odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Results: 1257 patients (55.7 +/- 17.0 years) were included in the analysis. The presence of OB was an independent predictive factor for renal failure [OR: 2.98 (CI: 1.33-6.66)] and obese patients spent a longer time in hospital compared to non-obese patients (12.1 vs. 10.4 days, p = 0.008). HT increased the risk of severe AP [OR: 3.41 (CI: 1.39-8.37)], renal failure [OR: 7.46 (CI: 1.61-34.49)], and the length of hospitalization (11.8 vs. 10.5 days, p = 0.020). HL increased the risk of local complications [OR: 1.51 (CI: 1.10-2.07)], renal failure [OR: 6.4 (CI: 1.93-21.17)], and the incidence of newly diagnosed DM [OR: 2.55 (CI: 1.26-5.19)]. No relation was found between the presence of DM and the outcome of AP. 906 cases (mean age +/- SD: 56.9 +/- 16.7 years) had data on all four components of MetS available. The presence of two, three, or four MetS factors increased the incidence of an unfavorable outcome compared to patients with no MetS factors. Conclusion: OB, HT, and HL are independent risk factors for a number of complications. HT is an independent risk factor for severity as well. Components of MetS strongly synergize each other's detrimental effect. It is important to search for and follow up on the components of MetS in AP.Peer reviewe

A Multicenter, International Cohort Analysis of 1435 Cases to Support Clinical Trial Design in Acute Pancreatitis

Background: C-reactive protein level (CRP) and white blood cell count (WBC) have been variably used in clinical trials on acute pancreatitis (AP). We assessed their potential role. Methods: First, we investigated studies which have used CRP or WBC, to describe their current role in trials on AP. Second, we extracted the data of 1435 episodes of AP from our registry. CRP and WBC on admission, within 24 h from the onset of pain and their highest values were analyzed. Descriptive statistical tools as Kruskal-Wallis, Mann-Whitney U, Levene's F tests, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and AUC (Area Under the Curve) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were performed. Results: Our literature review showed extreme variability of CRP used as an inclusion criterion or as a primary outcome or both in past and current trials on AP. In our cohort, CRP levels on admission poorly predicted mortality and severe cases of AP; AUC: 0.669 (CI:0.569-0.770); AUC:0.681 (CI: 0.601-0.761), respectively. CRP levels measured within 24 h from the onset of pain failed to predict mortality or severity; AUC: 0.741 (CI:0.627-0.854); AUC:0.690 (CI:0.586-0.793), respectively. The highest CRP during hospitalization had equally poor predictive accuracy for mortality and severity AUC:0.656 (CI:0.544-0.768); AUC:0.705 (CI:0.640-0.769) respectively. CRP within 24 h from the onset of pain used as an inclusion criterion markedly increased the combined event rate of mortality and severe AP (13% for CRP > 25 mg/l and 28% for CRP > 200 mg/l). Conclusion: CRP within 24 h from the onset of pain as an inclusion criterion elevates event rates and reduces the number of patients required in trials on AP.Peer reviewe

EASY-APP: An artificial intelligence model and application for early and easy prediction of severity in acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a potentially severe or even fatal inflammation of the pancreas. Early identification of patients at high risk for developing a severe course of the disease is crucial for preventing organ failure and death. Most of the former predictive scores require many parameters or at least 24 h to predict the severity; therefore, the early therapeutic window is often missed. METHODS: The early achievable severity index (EASY) is a multicentre, multinational, prospective and observational study (ISRCTN10525246). The predictions were made using machine learning models. We used the scikit‐learn, xgboost and catboost Python packages for modelling. We evaluated our models using fourfold cross‐validation, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the area under the ROC curve (AUC), and accuracy metrics were calculated on the union of the test sets of the cross‐validation. The most critical factors and their contribution to the prediction were identified using a modern tool of explainable artificial intelligence called SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). RESULTS: The prediction model was based on an international cohort of 1184 patients and a validation cohort of 3543 patients. The best performing model was an XGBoost classifier with an average AUC score of 0.81 ± 0.033 and an accuracy of 89.1%, and the model improved with experience. The six most influential features were the respiratory rate, body temperature, abdominal muscular reflex, gender, age and glucose level. Using the XGBoost machine learning algorithm for prediction, the SHAP values for the explanation and the bootstrapping method to estimate confidence, we developed a free and easy‐to‐use web application in the Streamlit Python‐based framework (http://easy‐app.org/). CONCLUSIONS: The EASY prediction score is a practical tool for identifying patients at high risk for severe AP within hours of hospital admission. The web application is available for clinicians and contributes to the improvement of the model