A model for estimating the health economic impact of earlier diagnosis of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension

Background Diagnostic delay of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) exceeds 1 year, contributing to higher mortality. Health economic consequences of late CTEPH diagnosis are unknown. We aimed to develop a model for quantifying the impact of diagnosing CTEPH earlier on survival, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and healthcare costs.Material and methods A Markov model was developed to estimate lifelong outcomes, depending on the degree of delay. Data on survival and quality of life were obtained from published literature. Hospital costs were assessed from patient records (n=498) at the Amsterdam UMC - VUmc, which is a Dutch CTEPH referral center. Medication costs were based on a mix of standard medication regimens.Results For 63-year-old CTEPH patients with a 14-month diagnostic delay of CTEPH (median age and delay of patients in the European CTEPH Registry), lifelong healthcare costs were estimated at EUR 117100 for a mix of treatment options. In a hypothetical scenario of maximal reduction of current delay, improved survival was estimated at a gain of 3.01 life-years and 2.04 QALYs. The associated cost increase was EUR 44654, of which 87% was due to prolonged medication use. This accounts for an incremental cost-utility ratio of EUR 21900/QALY.Conclusion Our constructed model based on the Dutch healthcare setting demonstrates a substantial health gain when CTEPH is diagnosed earlier. According to Dutch health economic standards, additional costs remain below the deemed acceptable limit of EUR 50000/QALY for the particular disease burden. This model can be used for evaluating cost-effectiveness of diagnostic strategies aimed at reducing the diagnostic delay.Analysis and support of clinical decision makin

Identification of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension on CTPAs performed for diagnosing acute pulmonary embolism depending on level of expertise

Background: Expert reading often reveals radiological signs of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) or chronic PE on computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) performed at the time of acute pulmonary embolism (PE) presentation preceding CTEPH. Little is known about the accuracy and reproducibility of CTPA reading by radiologists in training in this setting. Objectives: To evaluate 1) whether signs of CTEPH or chronic PE are routinely reported on CTPA for suspected PE; and 2) whether CTEPH-non-expert readers achieve comparable predictive accuracy to CTEPH-expert radiologists after dedicated instruction. Methods: Original reports of CTPAs demonstrating acute PE in 50 patients whom ultimately developed CTEPH, and those of 50 PE who did not, were screened for documented signs of CTEPH. All scans were re-assessed by three CTEPH-expert readers and two CTEPH-non-expert readers (blinded and independently) for predefined signs and overall presence of CTEPH. Results: Signs of chronic PE were mentioned in the original reports of 14/50 cases (28%), while CTEPH-expert radiologists had recognized 44/50 (88%). Using a standardized definition (>= 3 predefined radiological signs), moderate-to-good agreement was reached between CTEPH-non-expert readers and the experts' consensus (kstatistics 0.46; 0.61) at slightly lower sensitivities. The CTEPH-non-expert readers had moderate agreement on the presence of CTEPH (Kappa-statistic 0.38), but both correctly identified most cases (80% and 88%, respectively). Conclusions: Concomitant signs of CTEPH were poorly documented in daily practice, while most CTEPH patients were identified by CTEPH-non-expert readers after dedicated instruction. These findings underline the feasibility of achieving earlier CTEPH diagnosis by assessing CTPAs more attentively.Cardiovascular Aspects of Radiolog

High prevalence of non-accidental trauma among deceased children presenting at Level I trauma centers in the Netherlands

PURPOSE: Between 0.1—3% of injured children who present at a hospital emergency department ultimately die as a result of their injuries. These events are typically reported as unnatural causes of death and may result from either accidental or non-accidental trauma (NAT). Examples of the latter include trauma that is inflicted directly or resulting from neglect. Although consultation with a forensic physician is mandatory for all deceased children, the prevalence of fatal inflicted trauma or neglect among children is currently unclear. METHODS: This is a retrospective study that included children (0–18 years) who presented and died at one of the 11 Level I trauma centers in the Netherlands between January 1, 2014, and January 1, 2019. Outcomes were classified based on the conclusions of the Child Abuse and Neglect team or those of forensic pathologists and/or the court in cases referred for legally mandated autopsies. Cases in which conclusions were unavailable and there was no clear accidental cause of death were reviewed by an expert panel. RESULTS: The study included 175 cases of childhood death. Seventeen (9.7%) of these children died due to inflicted trauma (9.7%), 18 (10.3%) due to neglect, and 140 (80%) due to accidents. Preschool children (< 5 years old) were significantly more likely to present with injuries due to inflicted trauma and neglect compared to older children (44% versus 6%, p < 0.001, odds ratio [OR] 5.80, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.66–12.65). Drowning accounted for 14 of the 18 (78%) pediatric deaths due to neglect, representing 8% of the total cases. Postmortem radiological studies and autopsies were performed on 37 (21%) of all cases of childhood death. CONCLUSION: One of every five pediatric deaths in our nationwide Level I trauma center study was attributed to NAT; 44% of these deaths were the result of trauma experienced by preschool-aged children. A remarkable number of fatal drownings were due to neglect. Postmortem radiological studies and autopsies were performed in only one-fifth of all deceased children. The limited use of postmortem investigations may have resulted in missed cases of NAT, which will result in an overall underestimation of fatal NAT experienced by children. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12024-021-00416-7

Automated assessment of COVID-19 reporting and data system and chest CT severity scores in patients suspected of having COVID-19 using artificial intelligence

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has spread across the globe with alarming speed, morbidity, and mortality. Immediate triage of patients with chest infections suspected to be caused by COVID-19 using chest CT may be of assistance when results from definitive viral testing are delayed.Purpose: To develop and validate an artificial intelligence (AI) system to score the likelihood and extent of pulmonary COVID-19 on chest CT scans using the COVID-19 Reporting and Data System (CO-RADS) and CT severity scoring systems.Materials and Methods: The CO-RADS AI system consists of three deep-learning algorithms that automatically segment the five pulmonary lobes, assign a CO-RADS score for the suspicion of COVID-19, and assign a CT severity score for the degree of parenchymal involvement per lobe. This study retrospectively included patients who underwent a nonenhanced chest CT examination because of clinical suspicion of COVID-19 at two medical centers. The system was trained, validated, and tested with data from one of the centers. Data from the second center served as an external test set. Diagnostic performance and agreement with scores assigned by eight independent observers were measured using receiver operating characteristic analysis, linearly weighted kappa values, and classification accuracy.Results: A total of 105 patients (mean age, 62 years +/- 16 [standard deviation]; 61 men) and 262 patients (mean age, 64 years +/- 16; 154 men) were evaluated in the internal and external test sets, respectively. The system discriminated between patients with COVID-19 and those without COVID-19, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.95 (95% CI: 0.91, 0.98) and 0.88 (95% CI: 0.84, 0.93), for the internal and external test sets, respectively. Agreement with the eight human observers was moderate to substantial, with mean linearly weighted k values of 0.60 +/- 0.01 for CO-RADS scores and 0.54 +/- 0.01 for CT severity scores.Conclusion: With high diagnostic performance, the CO-RADS AI system correctly identified patients with COVID-19 using chest CT scans and assigned standardized CO-RADS and CT severity scores that demonstrated good agreement with findings from eight independent observers and generalized well to external data. (C) RSNA, 2020Cardiovascular Aspects of Radiolog

Association of Thyroid dysfunction with cognitive function an individual participant data analysis

IMPORTANCE In clinical guidelines, overt and subclinical thyroid dysfunction are mentioned as causal and treatable factors for cognitive decline. However, the scientific literature on these associations shows inconsistent findings.OBJECTIVE To assess cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of baseline thyroid dysfunction with cognitive function and dementia.DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This multicohort individual participant data analysis assessed 114 267 person-years (median, 1.7-11.3 years) of follow-up for cognitive function and 525 222 person-years (median, 3.8-15.3 years) for dementia between 1989 and 2017. Analyses on cognitive function included 21 cohorts comprising 38 144 participants. Analyses on dementia included eight cohorts with a total of 2033 cases with dementia and 44 573 controls. Data analysis was performed from December 2016 to January 2021.EXPOSURES Thyroid function was classified as overt hyperthyroidism, subclinical hyperthyroidism, euthyroidism, subclinical hypothyroidism, and overt hypothyroidism based on uniform thyrotropin cutoff values and study-specific free thyroxine values.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was global cognitive function, mostly measured using the Mini-Mental State Examination. Executive function, memory, and dementia were secondary outcomes. Analyses were first performed at study level using multivariable linear regression and multivariable Cox regression, respectively. The studies were combined with restricted maximum likelihood meta-analysis. To overcome the use of different scales, results were transformed to standardized mean differences. For incident dementia, hazard ratios were calculated.RESULTS Among 74 565 total participants, 66 567 (89.3%) participants had normal thyroid function, 577 (0.8%) had overt hyperthyroidism, 2557 (3.4%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism, 4167 (5.6%) had subclinical hypothyroidism, and 697 (0.9%) had overt hypothyroidism. The study-specific median age at baseline varied from 57 to 93 years; 42 847 (57.5%) participants were women. Thyroid dysfunction was not associated with global cognitive function; the largest differences were observed between overt hypothyroidism and euthyroidism-cross-sectionally (-0.06 standardized mean difference in score; 95% CI, -0.20 to 0.08; P = .40) and longitudinally (0.11 standardized mean difference higher decline per year; 95% CI, -0.01 to 0.23; P = .09). No consistent associations were observed between thyroid dysfunction and executive function, memory, or risk of dementia.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this individual participant data analysis of more than 74 000 adults, subclinical hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism were not associated with cognitive function, cognitive decline, or incident dementia. No rigorous conclusions can be drawn regarding the role of overt thyroid dysfunction in risk of dementia. These findings do not support the practice of screening for subclinical thyroid dysfunction in the context of cognitive decline in older adults as recommended in current guidelines.Molecular Epidemiolog

A meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies identifies multiple longevity genes

Human longevity is heritable, but genome-wide association (GWA) studies have had limited success. Here, we perform two meta-analyses of GWA studies of a rigorous longevity phenotype definition including 11,262/3484 cases surviving at or beyond the age corresponding to the 90th/99th survival percentile, respectively, and 25,483 controls whose age at death or at last contact was at or below the age corresponding to the 60th survival percentile. Consistent with previous reports, rs429358 (apolipoprotein E (ApoE) ε4) is associated with lower odds of surviving to the 90th and 99th percentile age, while rs7412 (ApoE ε2) shows the opposite. Moreover, rs7676745, located near GPR78, associates with lower odds of surviving to the 90th percentile age. Gene-level association analysis reveals a role for tissue-specific expression of multiple genes in longevity. Finally, genetic correlation of the longevity GWA results with that of several disease-related phenotypes points to a shared genetic architecture between health and longevity

Precision and accuracy of acoustospectrographic parameters

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