Multidecadal variability in hydro-climate of Okavango river system, southwest Africa, in the past and under future climate

The focus of this paper is to understand the multi-decadal oscillatory component of variability in the Okavango River system, in southwestern Africa, and its potential evolution through the 21st century under climate change scenarios. Statistical analyses and hydrological modelling are used to show that the observed multi-decadal wet and dry phases in the Okavango River and Delta result from multi-decadal oscillations in rainfall, which are likely to be related to processes of internal variability in the climate system, rather than external natural or anthropogenic forcing. Analyses of changes in this aspect of variability under projected climate change scenarios are based on data from a multi-model ensemble of 19 General Circulation Models, which are used to drive hydrological models of the Okavango River and Delta. Projections for the 21st century indicate a progressive shift towards drier conditions attributed to the influence of increasing temperatures on water balance. It is, however, highly likely that multi-decadal oscillations, possibly of similar magnitude to that of 20th century, will be superimposed on the overall trend. These may periodically offset or amplify the mean drying trend. This effect should be accounted for in water and catchment management and climate change adaptation strategies

Nearby Optical Galaxies: Selection of the Sample and Identification of Groups

In this paper we describe the Nearby Optical Galaxy (NOG) sample, which is a complete, distance-limited ($cz\leq$6000 km/s) and magnitude-limited (B$\leq$14) sample of $\sim$7000 optical galaxies. The sample covers 2/3 (8.27 sr) of the sky ($|b|>20^{\circ}$) and appears to have a good completeness in redshift (98%). We select the sample on the basis of homogenized corrected total blue magnitudes in order to minimize systematic effects in galaxy sampling. We identify the groups in this sample by means of both the hierarchical and the percolation {\it friends of friends} methods. The resulting catalogs of loose groups appear to be similar and are among the largest catalogs of groups presently available. Most of the NOG galaxies ($\sim$60%) are found to be members of galaxy pairs ($\sim$580 pairs for a total of $\sim$15% of objects) or groups with at least three members ($\sim$500 groups for a total of $\sim$45% of objects). About 40% of galaxies are left ungrouped (field galaxies). We illustrate the main features of the NOG galaxy distribution. Compared to previous optical and IRAS galaxy samples, the NOG provides a denser sampling of the galaxy distribution in the nearby universe. Given its large sky coverage, the identification of groups, and its high-density sampling, the NOG is suited for the analysis of the galaxy density field of the nearby universe, especially on small scales.Comment: 47 pages including 6 figures. Accepted for publication in Ap

Galaxy Distances in the Nearby Universe: Corrections For Peculiar Motions

By correcting the redshift--dependent distances for peculiar motions through a number of peculiar velocity field models, we recover the true distances of a wide, all-sky sample of nearby galaxies (~ 6400 galaxies with velocities cz<5500 km/s), which is complete up to the blue magnitude B=14 mag. Relying on catalogs of galaxy groups, we treat ~2700 objects as members of galaxy groups and the remaining objects as field galaxies. We model the peculiar velocity field using: i) a cluster dipole reconstruction scheme; ii) a multi--attractor model fitted to the Mark II and Mark III catalogs of galaxy peculiar velocities. According to Mark III data the Great Attractor has a smaller influence on local dynamics than previously believed, whereas the Perseus-Pisces and Shapley superclusters acquire a specific dynamical role. Remarkably, the Shapley structure, which is found to account for nearly half the peculiar motion of the Local Group, is placed by Mark III data closer to the zone of avoidance with respect to its optical position. Our multi--attractor model based on Mark III data favors a cosmological density parameter Omega ~ 0.5 (irrespective of a biasing factor of order unity). Differences among distance estimates are less pronounced in the ~ 2000 - 4000 km/s distance range than at larger or smaller distances. In the last regions these differences have a serious impact on the 3D maps of the galaxy distribution and on the local galaxy density --- on small scales.Comment: 24 pages including (9 eps figures and 7 tables). Figures 1,2,3,4 are available only upon request. Accepted by Ap

An investigation of fracture toughness, fatigue-crack growth, sustained-load flaw growth, and impact properties of three pressure vessel steels

The elastic fracture toughness of the three steels is shown to not decrease significantly with decreasing temperature from room temperature to about 244 K (-20 F.). The elastic fracture toughness of the three steels increased with increasing specimen width and thickness. The fatigue-crack-growth data for all three steels fall into relatively narrow scatter bands on plots of rate against stress-intensity range. An equation is shown to predict the upper bounds of the scatter bands reasonably well. Charpy impact energies decreased with decreasing temperature in the nominal temperature range from room temperature to 244 K (-20 F). The nil-ductility temperatures of the steels are discussed

Ten Years of Solar Change as Monitored by SBUV and SBUV/2

Observations of the Sun by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument aboard Nimbus 7 and the SBUV/2 instrument aboard NOAA-9 reveal variations in the solar irradiance from 1978, to 1988. The maximum to minimum solar change estimated from the Heath and Schlesinger Mg index and wavelength scaling factors is about 4 percent from 210 to 260 nm and 8 percent for 180 to 210 nm; direct measurements of the solar change give values of 1 to 3 percent and 5 to 7 percent, respectively, for the same wavelength range. Solar irradiances were high from the start of observations, late in 1978, until 1983, declined until early 1985, remained approximately constant until mid-1987, and then began to rise. Peak-to-peak 27-day rotational modulation amplitudes were as large as 6 percent at solar maximum and 1 to 2 percent at solar minimum. During occasional intervals of the 1979 to 1983 maximum and again during 1988, the dominant rotational modulation period was 13.5 days. Measurements near 200 to 205 nm show the same rotational modulation behavior but cannot be used to track long-term changes in the Sun because of uncertainties in the characterization of long-term instrument sensitivity changes

Flooding dynamics in a large low-gradient alluvial fan, the Okavango Delta, Botswana, from analysis and interpretation of a 30-year hydrometric record

The Okavango Delta is a flood-pulsed wetland, which supports a large tourism industry and the subsistence of the local population through the provision of ecosystem services. In order to obtain insight into the influence of various environmental factors on flood propagation and distribution in this system, an analysis was undertaken of a 30-year record of hydrometric data (discharges and water levels) from one of the Delta distributaries. The analysis revealed that water levels and discharges at any given channel site in this distributary are influenced by a complex interplay of flood wave and local rainfall inputs, modified by channel-floodplain interactions, in-channel sedimentation and technical interventions, both at the given site and upstream. Additionally, cyclical variation of channel vegetation due to intermittent nutrient loading, possibly sustained by nutrient recycling, may play a role. It is shown that short and long-term flood dynamics are mainly due to variation in floodplain flows. As a consequence, discharge data collected within the main channels of distributaries do not adequately represent flooding dynamics in the system. The paper contributes to the understanding of seasonal and long-term flood pulsing and their variation in low gradient systems of channels and floodplains

A status report on the analysis of the NOAA-9 SBUV/2 sweep mode solar irradiance data

Monitoring of the near ultraviolet (UV) solar irradiance is important because the solar UV radiation is the primary energy source in the upper atmosphere. The solar irradiance at wavelengths shortward of roughly 300 nm heats the stratosphere via photodissociation of ozone in the Hartley bands. Shortward of 242 nm the solar UV flux photodissociates O2, which is then available for ozone formation. Upper stratosphere ozone variations coincident with UV solar rotational modulation have been previously reported (Gille et al., 1984). Clearly, short and long term solar irradiance observations are necessary to separate solar-forced ozone variations from anthropogenic changes. The SBUV/2 instrument onboard the NOAA-9 spacecraft has made daily measurements of the solar spectral irradiance at approximately 0.15 nm intervals in the wavelength region 160-405 nm at 1 nm resolution since March 1985. These data are not needed to determine the terrestrial ozone overburden or altitude profile, and hence are not utilized in the NOAA Operational Ozone Product System (OOPS). Therefore, assisted by the ST System Corporation, NASA has developed a scientific software system to process the solar sweep mode data from the NOAA-9 instrument. This software will also be used to process the sweep mode solar irradiance data from the NOAA-11 and later SBUV/2 instruments. An overview of the software system and a brief discussion of analysis findings to date are provided. Several outstanding concerns/problems are also presented

Constraints on Association of Single-pulse Gamma-ray Bursts and Supernovae

We explore the hypothesis, similar to one recently suggested by Bloom and colleagues, that some nearby supernovae are associated with smooth, single-pulse gamma-ray bursts, possibly having no emission above ~ 300 keV. We examine BATSE bursts with durations longer than 2 s, fitting those which can be visually characterized as single-pulse events with a lognormal pulse model. The fraction of events that can be reliably ascertained to be temporally and spectrally similar to the exemplar, GRB 980425 - possibly associated with SN 1998bw - is 4/1573 or 0.25%. This fraction could be as high as 8/1573 (0.5%) if the dimmest bursts are included. Approximately 2% of bursts are morphologically similar to GRB 980425 but have emission above ~ 300 keV. A search of supernova catalogs containing 630 detections during BATSE's lifetime reveals only one burst (GRB 980425) within a 3-month time window and within the total 3-sigma BATSE error radius that could be associated with a type Ib/c supernova. There is no tendency for any subset of single-pulse GRBs to fall near the Supergalactic Plane, whereas SNe of type Ib/c do show this tendency. Economy of hypotheses leads us to conclude that nearby supernovae generally are not related to smooth, single-pulse gamma-ray bursts.Comment: 25 pages, 5 figure

Alternative futures’ of the Okavango Delta simulated by a suite of global climate and hydro-ecological models

The natural resources of the Okavango Delta, a large wetland in semi-arid Botswana, form the basis of livelihoods of the local population and support economically important high-end tourism. The hydro-ecological system is dynamic at various time scales, responding to climate variability, and both flood and drought conditions have in the past put pressure on the system’s users. Human-induced climate change can potentially exacerbate the effects of existing climate variability. In this paper, we present simulated future hydro-ecological conditions in the Okavango Delta generated by a step-wise modelling procedure. The outputs of three different global climate models are used to drive a suite of hydrological models. Lastly, a rule-based dynamic model relates hydroperiod conditions to vegetation assemblages. The simulated future conditions vary from much drier to much wetter than those recorded in the past. Models indicate that climatic change would result in change in both extent and distribution of the major ecotopes of the Okavango Delta. Importantly, the different ecotopes will be affected to varying degrees. The projected changes will have consequences for the wildlife-based management of the system. They will affect, for example, available grazing and migration/ movement patterns of large herbivores, as well as fish. Such consequences can have rapid up-trophic level effects, ultimately leading to potentially substantial impacts on the economy. The main conclusion to be drawn is that management planning and land-use systems should be as flexible as possible.Keywords: climate change, development planning, GCM, hydro-ecological modelling, wetland managemen