A Forecasting Approach Combining Self-Organizing Map with Support Vector Regression for Reservoir Inflow during Typhoon Periods

This study describes the development of a reservoir inflow forecasting model for typhoon events to improve short lead-time flood forecasting performance. To strengthen the forecasting ability of the original support vector machines (SVMs) model, the self-organizing map (SOM) is adopted to group inputs into different clusters in advance of the proposed SOM-SVM model. Two different input methods are proposed for the SVM-based forecasting method, namely, SOM-SVM1 and SOM-SVM2. The methods are applied to an actual reservoir watershed to determine the 1 to 3 h ahead inflow forecasts. For 1, 2, and 3 h ahead forecasts, improvements in mean coefficient of efficiency (MCE) due to the clusters obtained from SOM-SVM1 are 21.5%, 18.5%, and 23.0%, respectively. Furthermore, improvement in MCE for SOM-SVM2 is 20.9%, 21.2%, and 35.4%, respectively. Another SOM-SVM2 model increases the SOM-SVM1 model for 1, 2, and 3 h ahead forecasts obtained improvement increases of 0.33%, 2.25%, and 10.08%, respectively. These results show that the performance of the proposed model can provide improved forecasts of hourly inflow, especially in the proposed SOM-SVM2 model. In conclusion, the proposed model, which considers limit and higher related inputs instead of all inputs, can generate better forecasts in different clusters than are generated from the SOM process. The SOM-SVM2 model is recommended as an alternative to the original SVR (Support Vector Regression) model because of its accuracy and robustness

The incidence and risk of developing a second primary esophageal cancer in patients with oral and pharyngeal carcinoma: a population-based study in Taiwan over a 25 year period

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The incidence of oral and pharyngeal (including oral cavity, oropharynx and hypopharynx) carcinoma increases rapidly in Asia and South Pacific because of betel quid chewing. Thus far, large-scale epidemiological studies are not available yet to stratify these patients by their risks of developing a second primary cancer in the digestive tract including esophagus, stomach, colon, and rectum.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A population-based study was conducted using the database from the Taiwan National Cancer Registry for the period 1979-2003. We quantified standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and cumulative incidence of second primary cancers among 33,787 patients with initial diagnoses of oral and pharyngeal carcinoma.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among these four digestive tract organs, the esophagus was the only site of second cancer with excess risk in patients with oral and pharyngeal carcinoma. The incidence and risk of developing a second primary esophageal cancer differed by the site of the primary index tumor, most frequently seen in hypopharyngeal cancer (71/4,218 = 1.68%, SIR = 22.76, 95% CI 17.77-28.70), followed by oropharyngeal cancer (30/3,403 = 0.88%, SIR = 14.29, 95% CI 9.64-20.39) and the least in oral cavity cancer (99/26,166 = 0.38%, SIR = 5.57, 95% CI 4.53-6.78). In addition, the risk was extraordinarily high for patients with a follow-up interval ≤ 1 year and those with first primary cancer diagnosed at age ≤50. These patients may justify more close surveillance.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The present study represents the first population-based study in Asia attempting to stratify the patients of oral and pharyngeal carcinoma by their risk of developing a second esophageal cancer. It helps identify patients at high risk and tailor the application of intense follow-up surveillance to the estimated risk in each individual case.</p

Physicochemical properties of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) filet treated with high-voltage electrostatic field under different storage temperatures

The post-mortem rigid of farmed rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) affects the texture of the meat and might even be risky for microorganisms, undermining the popularity of frozen filets among consumers. This study investigated the importance of different conditions (0°C, 4°C, and 25°C for 0–4 days) and physicochemical characteristics of rainbow trout filet storage on fish’s characteristics, freshness, quality, and shelf-life. Results showed that the fish easily underwent rigor mortis and resolution of rigor mortis when stored at 25°C. However, rigor mortis was more likely to occur under storage at 0°C than at 4°C [with 100 kV/m high voltage electrostatic fields (HVEF)] due to low-temperature stimulation, but resolution of rigor mortis began to appear after 24 h of storage at either temperature. The protein solubility and gel strength of fish stored at 25°C continued to decrease due to thermal denaturation, and those of fish stored at 4°C and 0°C also showed a decrease owing to rigor mortis and then an increase when rigor mortis disappeared. The K values increased rapidly at 25°C and reached 61% at 14 h. Under storage at 4°C and 0°C, the K values only slightly increased before resolution of rigor mortis. However, the K-values did not exceed 40% for 4 days post-resolution of rigor mortis. Differential Scanning Calorimetry analysis and tissue sectioning showed that protein denaturation and separation between muscle fibers persisted during storage at various temperatures, most notably at 25°C. It is important to note that storing at 0°C for 96 h did not result in any significant changes in the molecular protein composition. Moreover, the muscle tissue remained in excellent condition compared to storage at 25°C and 4°C. Additionally, there was no significant difference in the total viable count (TVC) and psychrophilic bacteria between storage at 0°C and 4°C, considered safe for food consumption. These promising findings are conveyed in a circular economy based on the food industry, particularly adequate raw materials, stable prices, measures to reduce food loss and waste, and contributing to developing efficient, diverse, and sustainable food processing systems

Establishing a nationwide emergency department-based syndromic surveillance system for better public health responses in Taiwan

Background. With international concern over emerging infectious diseases (EID) and bioterrorist attacks, public health is being required to have early outbreak detection systems. A disease surveillance team was organized to establish a hospital emergency department-based syndromic surveillance system (ED-SSS) capable of automatically transmitting patient data electronically from the hospitals responsible for emergency care throughout the country to the Centers for Disease Control in Taiwan (Taiwan-CDC) starting March, 2004. This report describes the challenges and steps involved in developing ED-SSS and the timely information it provides to improve in public health decision-making. Methods. Between June 2003 and March 2004, after comparing various surveillance systems used around the world and consulting with ED physicians, pediatricians and internal medicine physicians involved in infectious disease control, the Syndromic Surveillance Research Team in Taiwan worked with the Real-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory at the University of Pittsburgh to create Taiwan's ED-SSS. The system was evaluated by analyzing daily electronic ED data received in real-time from the 189 hospitals participating in this system between April 1, 2004 and March 31, 2005. Results. Taiwan's ED-SSS identified winter and summer spikes in two syndrome groups: influenza-like illnesses and respiratory syndrome illnesses, while total numbers of ED visits were significantly higher on weekends, national holidays and the days of Chinese lunar new year than weekdays (p < 0.001). It also identified increases in the upper, lower, and total gastrointestinal (GI) syndrome groups starting in November 2004 and two clear spikes in enterovirus-like infections coinciding with the two school semesters. Using ED-SSS for surveillance of influenza-like illnesses and enteroviruses-related infections has improved Taiwan's pandemic flu preparedness and disease control capabilities. Conclusion. Taiwan's ED-SSS represents the first nationwide real-time syndromic surveillance system ever established in Asia. The experiences reported herein can encourage other countries to develop their own surveillance systems. The system can be adapted to other cultural and language environments for better global surveillance of infectious diseases and international collaboration. © 2008 Wu et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Dengue Virus Targets the Adaptor Protein MITA to Subvert Host Innate Immunity

Dengue is one of the most important arboviral diseases caused by infection of four serotypes of dengue virus (DEN). We found that activation of interferon regulatory factor 3 (IRF3) triggered by viral infection and by foreign DNA and RNA stimulation was blocked by DEN-encoded NS2B3 through a protease-dependent mechanism. The key adaptor protein in type I interferon pathway, human mediator of IRF3 activation (MITA) but not the murine homologue MPYS, was cleaved in cells infected with DEN-1 or DEN-2 and with expression of the enzymatically active protease NS2B3. The cleavage site of MITA was mapped to LRR↓96G and the function of MITA was suppressed by dengue protease. DEN replication was reduced with overexpression of MPYS but not with MITA, while DEN replication was enhanced by MPYS knockdown, indicating an antiviral role of MITA/MPYS against DEN infection. The involvement of MITA in DEN-triggered innate immune response was evidenced by reduction of IRF3 activation and IFN induction in cells with MITA knockdown upon DEN-2 infection. NS2B3 physically interacted with MITA, and the interaction and cleavage of MITA could be further enhanced by poly(dA:dT) stimulation. Thus, we identified MITA as a novel host target of DEN protease and provide the molecular mechanism of how DEN subverts the host innate immunity