805 research outputs found
Accuracy and Limitations of Fitting and Stereoscopic Methods to Determine the Direction of Coronal Mass Ejections from Heliospheric Imagers Observations
Using data from the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs) onboard STEREO, it is possible
to derive the direction of propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in
addition to their speed with a variety of methods. For CMEs observed by both
STEREO spacecraft, it is possible to derive their direction using simultaneous
observations from the twin spacecraft and also, using observations from only
one spacecraft with fitting methods. This makes it possible to test and compare
different analyses techniques. In this article, we propose a new fitting method
based on observations from one spacecraft, which we compare to the commonly
used fitting method of Sheeley et al. (1999). We also compare the results from
these two fitting methods with those from two stereoscopic methods, focusing on
12 CMEs observed simultaneously by the two STEREO spacecraft in 2008 and 2009.
We find evidence that the fitting method of Sheeley et al. (1999) can result in
significant errors in the determination of the CME direction when the CME
propagates outside of 60deg \pm 20 deg from the Sun-spacecraft line. We expect
our new fitting method to be better adapted to the analysis of halo or limb
CMEs with respect to the observing spacecraft. We also find some evidence that
direct triangulation in the HI fields-of-view should only be applied to CMEs
propagating approximatively towards Earth (\pm 20deg from the Sun-Earth line).
Last, we address one of the possible sources of errors of fitting methods: the
assumption of radial propagation. Using stereoscopic methods, we find that at
least seven of the 12 studied CMEs had an heliospheric deflection of less than
20deg as they propagated in the HI fields-of-view, which, we believe, validates
this approximation.Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables, accepted to Solar Physic
Effect of Solar Wind Drag on the Determination of the Properties of Coronal Mass Ejections from Heliospheric Images
The Fixed-\Phi (F\Phi) and Harmonic Mean (HM) fitting methods are two methods
to determine the average direction and velocity of coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) from time-elongation tracks produced by Heliospheric Imagers (HIs), such
as the HIs onboard the STEREO spacecraft. Both methods assume a constant
velocity in their descriptions of the time-elongation profiles of CMEs, which
are used to fit the observed time-elongation data. Here, we analyze the effect
of aerodynamic drag on CMEs propagating through interplanetary space, and how
this drag affects the result of the F\Phi and HM fitting methods. A simple drag
model is used to analytically construct time-elongation profiles which are then
fitted with the two methods. It is found that higher angles and velocities give
rise to greater error in both methods, reaching errors in the direction of
propagation of up to 15 deg and 30 deg for the F\Phi and HM fitting methods,
respectively. This is due to the physical accelerations of the CMEs being
interpreted as geometrical accelerations by the fitting methods. Because of the
geometrical definition of the HM fitting method, it is affected by the
acceleration more greatly than the F\Phi fitting method. Overall, we find that
both techniques overestimate the initial (and final) velocity and direction for
fast CMEs propagating beyond 90 deg from the Sun-spacecraft line, meaning that
arrival times at 1 AU would be predicted early (by up to 12 hours). We also
find that the direction and arrival time of a wide and decelerating CME can be
better reproduced by the F\Phi due to the cancellation of two errors:
neglecting the CME width and neglecting the CME deceleration. Overall, the
inaccuracies of the two fitting methods are expected to play an important role
in the prediction of CME hit and arrival times as we head towards solar maximum
and the STEREO spacecraft further move behind the Sun.Comment: Solar Physics, Online First, 17 page
Reconstructing the 3-D Trajectories of CMEs in the Inner Heliosphere
A method for the full three-dimensional (3-D) reconstruction of the
trajectories of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using Solar TErrestrial RElations
Observatory (STEREO) data is presented. Four CMEs that were simultaneously
observed by the inner and outer coronagraphs (COR1 and 2) of the Ahead and
Behind STEREO satellites were analysed. These observations were used to derive
CME trajectories in 3-D out to ~15Rsun. The reconstructions using COR1/2 data
support a radial propagation model. Assuming pseudo-radial propagation at large
distances from the Sun (15-240Rsun), the CME positions were extrapolated into
the Heliospheric Imager (HI) field-of-view. We estimated the CME velocities in
the different fields-of-view. It was found that CMEs slower than the solar wind
were accelerated, while CMEs faster than the solar wind were decelerated, with
both tending to the solar wind velocity.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures, 1 appendi
Speeds and arrival times of solar transients approximated by self-similar expanding circular fronts
The NASA STEREO mission opened up the possibility to forecast the arrival
times, speeds and directions of solar transients from outside the Sun-Earth
line. In particular, we are interested in predicting potentially geo-effective
Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) from observations of density
structures at large observation angles from the Sun (with the STEREO
Heliospheric Imager instrument). We contribute to this endeavor by deriving
analytical formulas concerning a geometric correction for the ICME speed and
arrival time for the technique introduced by Davies et al. (2012, ApJ, in
press) called Self-Similar Expansion Fitting (SSEF). This model assumes that a
circle propagates outward, along a plane specified by a position angle (e.g.
the ecliptic), with constant angular half width (lambda). This is an extension
to earlier, more simple models: Fixed-Phi-Fitting (lambda = 0 degree) and
Harmonic Mean Fitting (lambda = 90 degree). This approach has the advantage
that it is possible to assess clearly, in contrast to previous models, if a
particular location in the heliosphere, such as a planet or spacecraft, might
be expected to be hit by the ICME front. Our correction formulas are especially
significant for glancing hits, where small differences in the direction greatly
influence the expected speeds (up to 100-200 km/s) and arrival times (up to two
days later than the apex). For very wide ICMEs (2 lambda > 120 degree), the
geometric correction becomes very similar to the one derived by M\"ostl et al.
(2011, ApJ, 741, id. 34) for the Harmonic Mean model. These analytic
expressions can also be used for empirical or analytical models to predict the
1 AU arrival time of an ICME by correcting for effects of hits by the flank
rather than the apex, if the width and direction of the ICME in a plane are
known and a circular geometry of the ICME front is assumed.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in "Solar Physics
A survey of service needs to embed Genome Sequencing for Motor Neuron Disease in neurology in the English National Health Service.
All people with motor neuron disease (pwMND) in England are eligible for genome sequencing (GS), with panel-based testing. With the advent of genetically targeted MND treatments, and increasing demand for GS, it is important that clinicians have the knowledge and skills to support pwMND in making informed decisions around GS. We undertook an online survey of clinical genomic knowledge and genetic counselling skills in English clinicians who see pwMND. There were 245 respondents to the survey (160 neurology clinicians and 85 genetic clinicians). Neurology clinicians reported multiple, overlapping barriers to offering pwMND GS. Lack of time to discuss GS in clinic and lack of training in genetics were reported. Neurology clinicians scored significantly less well on self-rated genomic knowledge and genetic counselling skills than genetic clinicians. The majority of neurology clinicians reported that they do not have adequate educational or patient information resources to support GS discussions. We identify low levels of genomic knowledge and skills in the neurology workforce. This may impede access to GS and precision medicine for pwMND
A report of resources used by clinicians in the UK to support motor neuron disease genomic testing
Genetic testing is a key decision-making point for people with motor neuron disease (MND); to establish eligibility for clinical trials, better understand the cause of their condition, and confirm the potential risk to relatives, who may be able to access predictive testing. Given the wide-reaching implications of MND genetic and predictive testing, it is essential that families are given adequate information, and that staff are provided with appropriate training. In this report we overview the information resources available to people with MND and family members around genetic testing, and the educational and training resources available to staff, based on information obtained through a freedom of information request to UK-based NHS Trusts. MND Association resources were most commonly used in information sharing, though we highlight distinctions between neurology and genetics centers. No respondents identified comprehensive training around MND genetic testing. We conclude with practice implications and priorities for the development of resources and training
Interplanetary and Geomagnetic Consequences of Interacting CMEs of 13-14 June 2012
We report on the kinematics of two interacting CMEs observed on 13 and 14
June 2012. Both CMEs originated from the same active region NOAA 11504. After
their launches which were separated by several hours, they were observed to
interact at a distance of 100 Rs from the Sun. The interaction led to a
moderate geomagnetic storm at the Earth with Dst index of approximately, -86
nT. The kinematics of the two CMEs is estimated using data from the Sun Earth
Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI) onboard the Solar
Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO). Assuming a head-on collision
scenario, we find that the collision is inelastic in nature. Further, the
signatures of their interaction are examined using the in situ observations
obtained by Wind and the Advance Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. It is
also found that this interaction event led to the strongest sudden storm
commencement (SSC) (approximately 150 nT) of the present Solar Cycle 24. The
SSC was of long duration, approximately 20 hours. The role of interacting CMEs
in enhancing the geoeffectiveness is examined.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures, Accepted in Solar Physics Journa
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Psychological trauma, mood and social isolation do not explain elevated dissociation in functional neurological disorder (FND)
Functional Neurological Disorder (FND) results in altered motor, sensory and cognitive function in the absence of evident organic disease. It often co-occurs alongside dissociative disorders and dissociation has been found to be high in patients across FND subtypes (particularly in those with Non-Epileptic Attack Disorder; NEADs). However, the presence of dissociation in FND is varied and there are contradictory definitions and suggestions for elevated levels. Here, three studies show that dissociation is a prominent, defining feature of people with FND compared to those who are healthy or have other, similar long-term health conditions, and that this heightened dissociation is not explained by a history of trauma (study 1, N = 121), mood (study 2, N = 589) and is not associated with social isolation/social exclusion (study 3, N = 542). As dissociation appeared to occur in FND in the absence of the usual contributing factors, and as higher levels of dissociation were associated with increased disability and illness impacts, understanding its role is of fundamental importance to developing our understanding of FND. These findings have further applications, beyond the theoretical, in clinical settings and in research; the implications for further research are discussed
Mycobacterium bovis shedding patterns from experimentally infected calves and the effect of concurrent infection with bovine viral diarrhoea virus
Concurrent infection of cattle with bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) and Mycobacterium bovis is considered to be a possible risk factor for onward transmission of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in infected cattle and is known to compromise diagnostic tests. A comparison is made here of M. bovis shedding (i.e. release) characteristics from 12 calves, six experimentally co-infected with BVDV and six infected with M. bovis alone, using simple models of bacterial replication. These statistical and mathematical models account for the intermittent or episodic nature of shedding, the dynamics of within-host bacterial proliferation and the sampling distribution from a given shedding episode. We show that while there are distinct differences among the shedding patterns of calves given the same infecting dose, there is no statistically significant difference between the two groups of calves. Such differences as there are, can be explained solely in terms of the shedding frequency, but with all calves potentially excreting the same amount of bacteria in a given shedding episode post-infection. The model can be thought of as a process of the bacteria becoming established in a number of discrete foci of colonization, rather than as a more generalized infection of the respiratory tract. In this case, the variability in the shedding patterns of the infected calves can be explained solely by differences in the number of foci established and shedding being from individual foci over time. Should maximum exposure on a particular occasion be a critical consideration for cattle-to-cattle transmission of BTB, cattle that shed only intermittently may still make an important contribution to the spread and persistence of the disease
Evolution of active and polar photospheric magnetic fields during the rise of Cycle 24 compared to previous cycles
The evolution of the photospheric magnetic field during the declining phase
and minimum of Cycle 23 and the recent rise of Cycle 24 are compared with the
behavior during previous cycles. We used longitudinal full-disk magnetograms
from the NSO's three magnetographs at Kitt Peak, the Synoptic Optical Long-term
Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) Vector Spectro-Magnetograph (VSM), the
Spectromagnetograph and the 512-Channel Magnetograph instruments, and
longitudinal full-disk magnetograms from the Mt. Wilson 150-foot tower. We
analyzed 37 years of observations from these two observatories that have been
observing daily, weather permitting, since 1974, offering an opportunity to
study the evolving relationship between the active region and polar fields in
some detail over several solar cycles. It is found that the annual averages of
a proxy for the active region poloidal magnetic field strength, the magnetic
field strength of the high-latitude poleward streams, and the time derivative
of the polar field strength are all well correlated in each hemisphere. These
results are based on statistically significant cyclical patterns in the active
region fields and are consistent with the Babcock-Leighton phenomenological
model for the solar activity cycle. There was more hemispheric asymmetry in the
activity level, as measured by total and maximum active region flux, during
late Cycle 23 (after around 2004), when the southern hemisphere was more
active, and Cycle 24 up to the present, when the northern hemisphere has been
more active, than at any other time since 1974. The active region net proxy
poloidal fields effectively disappeared in both hemispheres around 2004, and
the polar fields did not become significantly stronger after this time. We see
evidence that the process of Cycle 24 field reversal has begun at both poles.Comment: Accepted for publication in Solar Physic
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