Converging seasonal prevalence dynamics in experimental epidemics

Background Regular seasonal changes in prevalence of infectious diseases are often observed in nature, but the mechanisms are rarely understood. Empirical tests aiming at a better understanding of seasonal prevalence patterns are not feasible for most diseases and thus are widely lacking. Here, we set out to study experimentally the seasonal prevalence in an aquatic host-parasite system. The microsporidian parasite Hamiltosporidium tvärminnensis exhibits pronounced seasonality in natural rock pool populations of its host, Daphnia magna with a regular increase of prevalence during summer and a decrease during winter. An earlier study was, however, unable to test if different starting conditions (initial prevalence) influence the dynamics of the disease in the long term. Here, we aim at testing how the starting prevalence affects the regular prevalence changes over a 4-year period in experimental populations.Results In an outdoor experiment, populations were set up to include the extremes of the prevalence spectrum observed in natural populations: 5% initial prevalence mimicking a newly invading parasite, 100% mimicking a rock pool population founded by infected hosts only, and 50% prevalence which is commonly observed in natural populations in spring. The parasite exhibited similar prevalence changes in all treatments, but seasonal patterns in the 100% treatment differed significantly from those in the 5% and 50% treatments. Populations started with 5% and 50% prevalence exhibited strong and regular seasonality already in the first year. In contrast, the amplitude of changes in the 100% treatment was low throughout the experiment demonstrating the long-lasting effect of initial conditions on prevalence dynamics.Conclusions Our study shows that the time needed to approach the seasonal changes in prevalence depends strongly on the initial prevalence. Because individual D. magna populations in this rock pool metapopulation are mostly short lived, only few populations might ever reach a point where the initial conditions are not visible anymore

Genetic diversity and genetic differentiation in Daphnia metapopulations with subpopulations of known age

If colonization of empty habitat patches causes genetic bottlenecks, freshly founded, young populations should be genetically less diverse than older ones that may have experienced successive rounds of immigration. This can be studied in metapopulations with subpopulations of known age. We studied allozyme variation in metapopulations of two species of water fleas (Daphnia) in the skerry archipelago of southern Finland. These populations have been monitored since 1982. Screening 49 populations of D. longispina and 77 populations of D. magna, separated by distances of 1.5–2180 m, we found that local genetic diversity increased with population age whereas pairwise differentiation among pools decreased with population age. These patterns persisted even after controlling for several potentially confounding ecological variables, indicating that extinction and recolonization dynamics decrease local genetic diversity and increase genetic differentiation in these metapopulations by causing genetic bottlenecks during colonization. We suggest that the effect of these bottlenecks may be twofold, namely decreasing genetic diversity by random sampling and leading to population-wide inbreeding. Subsequent immigration then may not only introduce new genetic material, but also lead to the production of noninbred hybrids, selection for which may cause immigrant alleles to increase in frequency, thus leading to increased genetic diversity in older populations

Founder events as determinants of within-island and among-island genetic structure of Daphnia metapopulations

The genetic structure of metapopulations offers insights into the genetic consequences of local extinction and recolonization. We studied allozyme variation in rock pool metapopulations of two species of waterfleas (Daphnia) with the aim to understand how these dynamics influence genetic differentiation. We screened 138 populations of D. magna and 65 populations of D. longispina from an area in the archipelago of southern Finland. The pools from which they were sampled are separated by distances between 1.5 and 4710 m and located on a total of 38 islands. The genetic population structure of the two species was strikingly similar, consistent with their similar metapopulation ecology. The mean FPT value (differentiation among pools with respect to the total metapopulation) was 0.55 and a hierarchical analysis showed that genetic differentiation was strong (>0.25) among pools within islands as well as among whole islands. Within islands, pairwise genetic differentiation increased with geographic distance, indicating isolation by distance due to spatially limited dispersal. Previous studies have shown strong founder events occurring during colonization in our metapopulation. We suggest that the genetic population structure in the studied metapopulations is largely explained by three consequences of these founder events: (i) strong drift during colonization, (ii) local inbreeding, which results in hybrid vigour and increased effective migration rates after subsequent immigration, and (iii) effects of selection through hitchhiking of neutral genes with linked loci under selection

Parasites promote host gene flow in a metapopulation

Local adaptation is a powerful mechanism to maintain genetic diversity in subdivided populations. It counteracts the homogenizing effect of gene flow because immigrants have an inferior fitness in the new habitat. This picture may be reversed in host populations where parasites influence the success of immigrating hosts. Here we report two experiments testing whether parasite abundance and genetic background influences the success of host migration among pools in a Daphnia magna metapopulation. In 22 natural populations of D. magna, immigrant hosts were found to be on average more successful when the resident populations experienced high prevalences of a local microsporidian parasite. We then determined whether this success is due to parasitism per se, or the genetic background of the parasites. In a common garden competition experiment, we found that parasites reduced the fitness of their local hosts relatively more than the fitness of allopatric host genotypes. Our experiments are consistent with theoretical predictions based on coevolutionary host-parasite models in metapopulations. A direct consequence of the observed mechanism is an elevated effective migration rate for the host in the metapopulation

Unsuitable habitat patches lead to severe underestimation of dynamics and gene flow in a zooplankton metapopulation

Migration and re-colonization enable organisms to persist in metapopulations. Re-colonization success may be limited by the number of arriving migrants or by patch quality. In a well-studied rock pool Daphnia metapopulation, it is frequently assumed that re-colonization is limited by the number of arriving migrants, and that all patches are equally suitable for colonization. This assumption strongly influences how observations about dynamics, epidemiology and population genetics for the entire metapopulation are interpreted. Here we test this assumption. In 627 rock pools, we found that high pH, high Ca(++) and high water conductivity were positively correlated with the presence of D. magna. The experimental release of D. magna into randomly chosen natural pools revealed the highest colonization success in pools with high pH. Next, we elevated pH and Ca(++) concentrations in natural pools by adding a system-specific natural source of calcium carbonate (either from crushed oyster shells or from eider duck droppings, which contain blue mussel shells). These treatments led to a rapid increase in pH and Ca(++) and strongly raised the likelihood that introduced D. magna would establish persistent populations. Therefore, we conclude that low pH and Ca(++) result in unsuitable colonization conditions in two-thirds of the untreated pools. A further experiment revealed that natural colonization rates were about five times higher in calcium-treated pools than in untreated pools. Finally, we observed that eider droppings are more frequently found in the catchment area of occupied pools, than they are in those of unoccupied pools, suggesting that the blue mussel shells contained in the eider droppings play an important role in making pools suitable for colonization and in enabling D. magna to persist. Thus, eider ducks are ecosystem engineers in this system. We recalculate typical metapopulation parameters to account for the unsuitable pools, resulting in a much moredynamic picture of this metapopulation than previously believed, with colonization rates and gene flow three to five times higher. These results have strong implications for metapopulation persistence, local and global genetic diversity, genetic rescue, gene flow and local adaptation. Our results emphasize that without verifying patch suitability, estimated rates of metapopulation dynamics can severely underestimate the true rates

A selective advantage to immigrant genes in a <i>Daphnia</i> metapopulation

Immigrants to habitats occupied by conspecific organisms are usually expected to be competitively inferior, because residents may be locally adapted. If residents are inbred, however, mating between immigrants and residents results in offspring that may enjoy a fitness advantage from hybrid vigor. We demonstrate this effect experimentally in a natural Daphnia metapopulation in which genetic bottlenecks and local inbreeding are common. We estimate that in this metapopulation, hybrid vigor amplifies the rate of gene flow several times more than would be predicted from the nominal migration rate. This can affect the persistence of local populations and the entire metapopulation