Skilful seasonal prediction of winter gas demand

In Britain, residential properties are predominantly heated using gas central heating systems. Ensuring a reliable supply of gas is therefore vital in protecting vulnerable sections of society from the adverse effects of cold weather. Ahead of the winter, the grid operator makes a prediction of gas demand to better anticipate possible conditions. Seasonal weather forecasts are not currently used to inform this demand prediction. Here we assess whether seasonal weather forecasts can skilfully predict the weather-driven component of both winter mean gas demand and the number of extreme gas demand days over the winter period. We find that both the mean and the number of extreme days are predicted with some skill from early November using seasonal forecasts of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (r > 0.5). Although temperature is most strongly correlated with gas demand, the more skilful prediction of the atmospheric circulation means it is a better predictor of demand. If seasonal weather forecasts are incorporated into pre-winter gas demand planning, they could help improve the security of gas supplies and reduce the impacts associated with extreme demand events

Integrating open-source technologies to build low-cost information systems for improved access to public health data

Effective public health practice relies on the availability of public health data sources and assessment tools to convey information to investigators, practitioners, policy makers, and the general public. Emerging communication technologies on the Internet can deliver all components of the "who, what, when, and where" quartet more quickly than ever with a potentially higher level of quality and assurance, using new analysis and visualization tools. Open-source software provides the opportunity to build low-cost information systems allowing health departments with modest resources access to modern data analysis and visualization tools. In this paper, we integrate open-source technologies and public health data to create a web information system which is accessible to a wide audience through the Internet. Our web application, "EpiVue," was tested using two public health datasets from the Washington State Cancer Registry and Washington State Center for Health Statistics. A third dataset shows the extensibility and scalability of EpiVue in displaying gender-based longevity statistics over a twenty-year interval for 3,143 United States counties. In addition to providing an integrated visualization framework, EpiVue's highly interactive web environment empowers users by allowing them to upload their own geospatial public health data in either comma-separated text files or MS Excel™ spreadsheet files and visualize the geospatial datasets with Google Maps™

Oral human papillomavirus is common in individuals with Fanconi anemia

Fanconi anemia is a rare genetic disorder resulting in a loss of function of the Fanconi anemia-related DNA repair pathway. Individuals with Fanconi anemia are predisposed to some cancers, including oropharyngeal and gynecologic cancers, with known associations with human papillomavirus (HPV) in the general population. As individuals with Fanconi anemia respond poorly to chemotherapy and radiation, prevention of cancer is critical. METHODS: To determine whether individuals with Fanconi anemia are particularly susceptible to oral HPV infection, we analyzed survey-based risk factor data and tested DNA isolated from oral rinses from 126 individuals with Fanconi anemia and 162 unaffected first-degree family members for 37 HPV types. RESULTS: Fourteen individuals (11.1%) with Fanconi anemia tested positive, significantly more (P = 0.003) than family members (2.5%). While HPV prevalence was even higher for sexually active individuals with Fanconi anemia (17.7% vs. 2.4% in family; P = 0.003), HPV positivity also tended to be higher in the sexually inactive (8.7% in Fanconi anemia vs. 2.9% in siblings). Indeed, having Fanconi anemia increased HPV positivity 4.9-fold (95% CI, 1.6-15.4) considering age and sexual experience, but did not differ by other potential risk factors. CONCLUSION: Our studies suggest that oral HPV is more common in individuals with Fanconi anemia. It will be essential to continue to explore associations between risk factors and immune dysfunction on HPV incidence and persistence over time. IMPACT: HPV vaccination should be emphasized in those with Fanconi anemia as a first step to prevent oropharyngeal cancers, although additional studies are needed to determine whether the level of protection it offers in this population is adequate

Defects in the Fanconi Anemia Pathway in Head and Neck Cancer Cells Stimulate Tumor Cell Invasion through DNA-PK and Rac1 Signaling

PURPOSE: Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) remains a devastating disease, and Fanconi anemia (FA) gene mutations and transcriptional repression are common. Invasive tumor behavior is associated with poor outcome, but relevant pathways triggering invasion are poorly understood. There is a significant need to improve our understanding of genetic pathways and molecular mechanisms driving advanced tumor phenotypes, to develop tailored therapies. Here we sought to investigate the phenotypic and molecular consequences of FA pathway loss in HNSCC cells. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Using sporadic HNSCC cell lines with and without FA gene knockdown, we sought to characterize the phenotypic and molecular consequences of FA deficiency. FA pathway inactivation was confirmed by the detection of classic hallmarks of FA following exposure to DNA cross-linkers. Cells were subjected to RNA sequencing with qRT-PCR validation, followed by cellular adhesion and invasion assays in the presence and absence of DNA-dependent protein kinase (DNA-PK) and Rac1 inhibitors. RESULTS: We demonstrate that FA loss in HNSCC cells leads to cytoskeletal reorganization and invasive tumor cell behavior in the absence of proliferative gains. We further demonstrate that cellular invasion following FA loss is mediated, at least in part, through NHEJ-associated DNA-PK and downstream Rac1 GTPase activity. CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate that FA loss stimulates HNSCC cell motility and invasion, and implicate a targetable DNA-PK/Rac1 signaling axis in advanced tumor phenotypes

Acquisition of Relative Interstrand Crosslinker Resistance and PARP Inhibitor Sensitivity in Fanconi Anemia Head and Neck Cancers

PURPOSE: Fanconi anemia is an inherited disorder associated with a constitutional defect in the Fanconi anemia DNA repair machinery that is essential for resolution of DNA interstrand crosslinks. Individuals with Fanconi anemia are predisposed to formation of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) at a young age. Prognosis is poor, partly due to patient intolerance of chemotherapy and radiation requiring dose reduction, which may lead to early recurrence of disease. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Using HNSCC cell lines derived from the tumors of patients with Fanconi anemia, and murine HNSCC cell lines derived from the tumors of wild-type and Fancc(-/-) mice, we sought to define Fanconi anemia-dependent chemosensitivity and DNA repair characteristics. We utilized DNA repair reporter assays to explore the preference of Fanconi anemia HNSCC cells for non-homologous end joining (NHEJ). RESULTS: Surprisingly, interstrand crosslinker (ICL) sensitivity was not necessarily Fanconi anemia-dependent in human or murine cell systems. Our results suggest that the increased Ku-dependent NHEJ that is expected in Fanconi anemia cells did not mediate relative ICL resistance. ICL exposure resulted in increased DNA damage sensing and repair by PARP in Fanconi anemia-deficient cells. Moreover, human and murine Fanconi anemia HNSCC cells were sensitive to PARP inhibition, and sensitivity of human cells was attenuated by Fanconi anemia gene complementation. CONCLUSIONS: The observed reliance upon PARP-mediated mechanisms reveals a means by which Fanconi anemia HNSCCs can acquire relative resistance to the ICL-based chemotherapy that is a foundation of HNSCC treatment, as well as a potential target for overcoming chemoresistance in the chemosensitive individual

Daily to decadal modulation of jet variability

The variance of a jet’s position in latitude is found to be related to its average speed: when a jet becomes stronger its variability in latitude decreases. This relationship is shown to hold for observed midlatitude jets around the world and also across a hierarchy of numerical models. North Atlantic jet variability is shown to be modulated on decadal timescales, with decades of a strong, steady jet being interspersed with decades of a weak, variable jet. These modulations are also related to variations in the basin-wide occurrence of high-impact blocking events. A picture emerges of complex multidecadal jet variability in which recent decades do not appear unusual. We propose an underlying barotropic mechanism to explain this behaviour, related to the change in refractive properties of a jet as it strengthens, and the subsequent effect on the distribution of Rossby wave breaking

The epidemiology and survival of extrapulmonary small cell carcinoma in South East England, 1970–2004

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Extrapulmonary small cell carcinoma (EPSCC) is a rare cancer and few studies describe its epidemiology. Our objectives were to compare the incidence and survival of EPSCC in South East England with small cell carcinoma of the lung (SCLC), to determine the most common anatomical presenting sites for EPSCC and to compare survival in EPSCC by disease stage and site of diagnosis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used data from the Thames Cancer Registry database for South East England between 1970 and 2004 to determine the incidence, most common anatomical sites, and survival by site, and stage of EPSCC. 1618 patients registered with EPSCC were identified. We calculated the age-standardised incidence rate for EPSCC using the European standard population and compared this to that for SCLC. We calculated survival using the Kaplan-Meier method for EPSCC and SCLC, and reported 3-year survival for different EPSCC anatomical sites and disease stages.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The incidence of EPSCC was much lower than for SCLC, similar in males and females, and stable throughout the study period, with incidence rates of 0.45 per 100,000 in males and 0.37 in females during 2000–2004. In general, patients with EPSCC had a better 3-year survival (19%) than SCLC (5%). The most common anatomical sites for EPSCC were oesophagus (18%), other gastrointestinal (15%), genitourinary (20%), head and neck (11%), and breast (10%). Breast EPSCC had the best 3-year survival (60%) and gastrointestinal EPSCC the worst (7%).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study suggests that EPSCC has a stable incidence and confirms that it presents widely, but most commonly in the oesophagus and breast. Site and extent of disease influence survival, with breast EPSCC having the best prognosis. Further studies using standardised diagnosis, prospective case registers for uncommon diseases and European cancer registries are needed to understand this disease.</p

Project Brainstorm: Using Neuroscience to Connect College Students with Local Schools

Neuroscience can be used as a tool to inspire an interest in science in school children as well as to provide teaching experience to college students

Fixed-dose capecitabine is feasible: results from a pharmacokinetic and pharmacogenetic study in metastatic breast cancer

The pro-drug capecitabine is approved for treatment of anthracycline- and paclitaxel-resistant metastatic breast cancer. However, toxicity and large interpatient pharmacokinetic variability occur despite body surface area (BSA)-dosing. We hypothesized that a fixed-dose schedule would simplify dosing and provide an effective and safe alternative to BSA-based dosing