Machine Learning Techniques to Predict the Air Quality Using Meteorological Data in Two Urban Areas in Sri Lanka

The effect of bad air quality on human health is a well-known risk. Annual health costs have significantly been increased in many countries due to adverse air quality. Therefore, forecasting air quality-measuring parameters in highly impacted areas is essential to enhance the quality of life. Though this forecasting is usual in many countries, Sri Lanka is far behind the state-of-the-art. The country has increasingly reported adverse air quality levels with ongoing industrialization in urban areas. Therefore, this research study, for the first time, mainly focuses on forecasting the PM10 values of the air quality for the two urbanized areas of Sri Lanka, Battaramulla (an urban area in Colombo), and Kandy. Twelve air quality parameters were used with five models, including extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), CatBoost, light gradient-boosting machine (LightBGM), long short-term memory (LSTM), and gated recurrent unit (GRU) to forecast the PM10 levels. Several performance indices, including the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute relative error (MARE), and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), were used to test the forecasting models. It was identified that the LightBGM algorithm performed better in forecasting PM10 in Kandy (R2 = 0.99, MSE = 0.02, MAE = 0.002, RMSE = 0.1225, MARE = 1.0, and NSE = 0.99) . In contrast, the LightBGM achieved a higher performance (R2 = 0.99, MSE = 0.002, MAE = 0.012, RMSE = 1.051, MARE = 0.00, and NSE = 0.99) for the forecasting PM10 for the Battaramulla region. As per the results, it can be concluded that there is a necessity to develop forecasting models for different land areas. Moreover, it was concluded that the PM10 in Kandy and Battaramulla increased slightly with existing seasonal changes

Artificial intelligence to predict soil temperatures by development of novel model

Soil temperatures at both surface and various depths are important in changing environments to understand the biological, chemical, and physical properties of soil. This is essential in reaching food sustainability. However, most of the developing regions across the globe face difficulty in establishing solid data measurements and records due to poor instrumentation and many other unavoidable reasons such as natural disasters like droughts, floods, and cyclones. Therefore, an accurate prediction model would fix these difficulties. Uzbekistan is one of the countries that is concerned about climate change due to its arid climate. Therefore, for the first time, this research presents an integrated model to predict soil temperature levels at the surface and 10 cm depth based on climatic factors in Nukus, Uzbekistan. Eight machine learning models were trained in order to understand the best-performing model based on widely used performance indicators. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model performed in accurate predictions of soil temperature levels at 10 cm depth. More importantly, the models developed here can predict temperature levels at 10 cm depth with the measured climatic data and predicted surface soil temperature levels. The model can predict soil temperature at 10 cm depth without any ground soil temperature measurements. The developed model can be effectively used in planning applications in reaching sustainability in food production in arid areas like Nukus, Uzbekistan

A proposal of prior probability-oriented clustering in feature encoding strategies.

Codebook-based feature encodings are a standard framework for image recognition issues. A codebook is usually constructed by clusterings, such as the k-means and the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). A codebook size is an important factor to decide the trade-off between recognition performance and computational complexity and a traditional framework has the disadvantage to image recognition issues when a large codebook; the number of unique clusters becomes smaller than a designated codebook size because some clusters converge to close positions. This paper focusses on the disadvantage from a perspective of the distribution of prior probabilities and presents a clustering framework including two objectives that are alternated to the k-means and the GMM. Our approach is first evaluated with synthetic clustering datasets to analyze a difference to traditional clustering. In the experiment section, although our approach alternated to the k-means generates similar results to the k-means results, our approach is able to finely tune clusters for our objective. Our approach alternated to the GMM significantly improves our objective and constructs intuitively appropriate clusters, especially for huge and complicatedly distributed samples. In the experiment on image recognition issues, two state-of-the-art encodings, the Fisher Vector (FV) using the GMM and the Vector of Locally Aggregated Descriptors (VLAD) using the k-means, are evaluated with two publicly available image datasets, the Birds and the Butterflies. For the results of the VLAD with our approach, the recognition performances tend to be worse compared to the original VLAD results. On the other hand, the FV using our approach is able to improve the performance, especially in a larger codebook size

Investigation of Involvement between Specific Brain Regions and Evaluation Criteria Elements in a Two-Selections Task

It is essential to understand the neural mechanisms underlying human decision-making. Several studies using traditional analysis have attempted to explain the neural mechanisms associated with decision-making based on abstract rewards. However, brain-decoding research that utilizes the multivoxel pattern analysis (MVPA) method, especially research focusing on decision-making, remains limited. In brain analysis, decoding strategies for multivoxels are required for various decision-making evaluation criteria. This is because in daily life, the human decision-making process makes use of many evaluation criteria. In the present study, we investigated the representation of evaluation criterion categories in a decision-making process using functional magnetic resonance imaging and MVPA. Participants performed a decision-making task that involved choosing a smartphone by referring to four types of evaluation criteria. The regions of interest (ROIs) were the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC), nucleus accumbens (NAcc), and insula. Each combination of the four evaluation criteria was analyzed based on a binary classification using MVPA. From the binary classification accuracy obtained from MVPA, the regions that reflected differences in the evaluation criteria among the ROIs were evaluated. The results of the binary classification in the vmPFC and NAcc indicated that these regions can express evaluation criteria in decision-making processes

Deep Machine Learning-Based Water Level Prediction Model for Colombo Flood Detention Area

Machine learning has already been proven as a powerful state-of-the-art technique for many non-linear applications, including environmental changes and climate predictions. Wetlands are among some of the most challenging and complex ecosystems for water level predictions. Wetland water level prediction is vital, as wetlands have their own permissible water levels. Exceeding these water levels can cause flooding and other severe environmental damage. On the other hand, the biodiversity of the wetlands is threatened by the sudden fluctuation of water levels. Hence, early prediction of water levels benefits in mitigating most of such environmental damage. However, monitoring and predicting the water levels in wetlands worldwide have been limited owing to various constraints. This study presents the first-ever application of deep machine-learning techniques (deep neural networks) to predict the water level in an urban wetland in Sri Lanka located in its capital. Moreover, for the first time in water level prediction, it investigates two types of relationships: the traditional relationship between water levels and environmental factors, including temperature, humidity, wind speed, and evaporation, and the temporal relationship between daily water levels. Two types of low load artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed and employed to analyze two relationships which are feed forward neural networks (FFNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks, to conduct the comparison on an unbiased common ground. The LSTM has outperformed FFNN and confirmed that the temporal relationship is much more robust in predicting wetland water levels than the traditional relationship. Further, the study identified interesting relationships between prediction accuracy, data volume, ANN type, and degree of information extraction embedded in wetland data. The LSTM neural networks (NN) has achieved substantial performance, including R2 of 0.8786, mean squared error (MSE) of 0.0004, and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.0155 compared to existing studies

Wetland Water Level Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks—A Case Study in the Colombo Flood Detention Area, Sri Lanka

Historically, wetlands have not been given much attention in terms of their value due to the general public being unaware. Nevertheless, wetlands are still threatened by many anthropogenic activities, in addition to ongoing climate change. With these recent developments, water level prediction of wetlands has become an important task in order to identify potential environmental damage and for the sustainable management of wetlands. Therefore, this study identified a reliable neural network model by which to predict wetland water levels over the Colombo flood detention area, Sri Lanka. This is the first study conducted using machine learning techniques in wetland water level predictions in Sri Lanka. The model was developed with independent meteorological variables, including rainfall, evaporation, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The water levels measurements of previous years were used as dependent variables, and the analysis was based on a seasonal timescale. Two neural network training algorithms, the Levenberg Marquardt algorithm (LM) and the Scaled Conjugate algorithm (SG), were used to model the nonlinear relationship, while the Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Coefficient of Correlation (CC) were used as the performance indices by which to understand the robustness of the model. In addition, uncertainty analysis was carried out using d-factor simulations. The performance indicators showed that the LM algorithm produced better results by which to model the wetland water level ahead of the SC algorithm, with a mean squared error of 0.0002 and a coefficient of correlation of 0.99. In addition, the computational efficiencies were excellent in the LM algorithm compared to the SC algorithm in terms of the prediction of water levels. LM showcased 3–5 epochs, whereas SC showcased 34–50 epochs of computational efficiencies for all four seasonal predictions. However, the d-factor showcased that the results were not within the cluster of uncertainty. Therefore, the overall results suggest that the Artificial Neural Network can be successfully used to predict the wetland water levels, which is immensely important in the management and conservation of the wetlands

Deep Machine Learning-Based Water Level Prediction Model for Colombo Flood Detention Area

Machine learning has already been proven as a powerful state-of-the-art technique for many non-linear applications, including environmental changes and climate predictions. Wetlands are among some of the most challenging and complex ecosystems for water level predictions. Wetland water level prediction is vital, as wetlands have their own permissible water levels. Exceeding these water levels can cause flooding and other severe environmental damage. On the other hand, the biodiversity of the wetlands is threatened by the sudden fluctuation of water levels. Hence, early prediction of water levels benefits in mitigating most of such environmental damage. However, monitoring and predicting the water levels in wetlands worldwide have been limited owing to various constraints. This study presents the first-ever application of deep machine-learning techniques (deep neural networks) to predict the water level in an urban wetland in Sri Lanka located in its capital. Moreover, for the first time in water level prediction, it investigates two types of relationships: the traditional relationship between water levels and environmental factors, including temperature, humidity, wind speed, and evaporation, and the temporal relationship between daily water levels. Two types of low load artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed and employed to analyze two relationships which are feed forward neural networks (FFNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks, to conduct the comparison on an unbiased common ground. The LSTM has outperformed FFNN and confirmed that the temporal relationship is much more robust in predicting wetland water levels than the traditional relationship. Further, the study identified interesting relationships between prediction accuracy, data volume, ANN type, and degree of information extraction embedded in wetland data. The LSTM neural networks (NN) has achieved substantial performance, including R2 of 0.8786, mean squared error (MSE) of 0.0004, and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.0155 compared to existing studies

A Cascaded Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System for Hydropower Forecasting

Hydropower stands as a crucial source of power in the current world, and there is a vast range of benefits of forecasting power generation for the future. This paper focuses on the significance of climate change on the future representation of the Samanalawewa Reservoir Hydropower Project using an architecture of the Cascaded ANFIS algorithm. Moreover, we assess the capacity of the novel Cascaded ANFIS algorithm for handling regression problems and compare the results with the state-of-art regression models. The inputs to this system were the rainfall data of selected weather stations inside the catchment. The future rainfalls were generated using Global Climate Models at RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and corrected for their biases. The Cascaded ANFIS algorithm was selected to handle this regression problem by comparing the best algorithm among the state-of-the-art regression models, such as RNN, LSTM, and GRU. The Cascaded ANFIS could forecast the power generation with a minimum error of 1.01, whereas the second-best algorithm, GRU, scored a 6.5 error rate. The predictions were carried out for the near-future and mid-future and compared against the previous work. The results clearly show the algorithm can predict power generation’s variation with rainfall with a slight error rate. This research can be utilized in numerous areas for hydropower development