Booming Hydrocarbon Exports, De-Agriculturalization and Food Security in Trinidad and Tobago

During the 1970s the Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) economy experienced an oil boom because of increases in the level and production of crude oil and in the price each barrel of crude oil fetched on the international market. In the late 1990s to the present, the T&T economy has benefited from another hydrocarbon boom. This paper traces the trends in export agriculture, sugar and domestic agriculture during the first and second oil booms. Using the falling share of labour employed in a sector as a reflection of de-industrialization, the analysis reveals that during the first oil boom all three components of the agricultural sector were de-industrialized although in the period until 1993 these same sectors showed clear signs of re-industrialization. During the second oil boom these agricultural subsectors were again de-industrialized, although in the case of sugar and domestic agriculture output per employed worker increased. The paper argues that given the likelihood of further hydrocarbon driven growth, the food security issue requires that efforts be made to preserve the output level of the domestic agricultural sector. The structural changes to the economies of the Caribbean over the last few decades has been phenomenal; there has been a substantial decline in the importance of the agricultural sector both absolutely and relatively, while the manufacturing, mining and tourism sectors has provided the impetus for growth and development. In no other Caribbean country has the fall off in agriculture been so marked as in Trinidad and Tobago; the only country in the region to possess significant oil reserves. However, it should be noted that this is a basis for concern, especially within the context of long term growth and food security.Trinidad and Tobago, food security, Dutch Disease, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Food Security and Poverty,

The impact of emerging markets (BRIC`s) on CARICOM

This paper provides a detailed outline of the economic progress of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs) and its implications for the Caribbean Community (CARICOM). BRICs have been identified as four emerging markets with the ability to surpass the present G6 countries by 2050 in terms of their combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This has significant implications for developing countries in terms of their trade and investment outlook. The share of BRICs GDP in world GDP is now close to 18% and their outbound investments have increased significantly in the past decade. CARICOM economies are presently net importers from BRICs; as such this paper outlines various export opportunities for CARICOM by utilizing several trade indices and also identifies other complementary growth effects for CARICOM from the growth of BRICs.peer-reviewe

Technology and structure - explaining the consequences of infusion of the Information Systems in the Stockbroking Sector

The current dominant theory concerning the diffusion of innovation (DOI) was proposed by Rogers (1995). Its ontological basis is Social Constructivism (SC). This paper suggests that SC leads to explanations that are not valid in some industry environments. This paper further suggests that these limitations can be overcome by adopting a Critical Realist ontology (CR). Social constructivism does not allow for the possibility that external forces can determine how a business operates but lead one to believe that that management, independent of these external forces, determines the structure and mode of operation of its business. Research was conducted into the uptake of the IS-enabled listing, sales and clearance systems and the resultant structural changes in the stockbroking sector of the finance industry. It was found that, in this industry-sector, government and professional and regulatory bodies have had an overwhelming influence on the form of, extent and the technological requirements that stockbrokers needed to adopt should they wish to operate in the sector. It was also observed that these regulatory bodies affected the extent to which the firms could use the Internet to transform the business and the procedures firms could use. In addition the compulsory use of the trading systems imposed on the then present and prospective brokers acted as a barrier to entry thus maintaining a balance based on the predefined criteria designed and implemented by the sector’s regulatory bodies. The paper disputes the condition, stated by Rogers(1983), that technology adoption can be examined independently of the role of these important external impositions. Hence a critical realist lens was employed as an underlying philosophy to help explain the observed technology adoptions. The benefits of such a philosophical grounding are highlighted

New Empirical Insights into the “Natural Trading Partner” Hypothesis for CARICOM Countries

The central notion of the natural trading partner hypothesis is that a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) will be welfare enhancing for members if there is a strong level of bilateral trade complementarity among their trade structures. This paper presents an empirical examination of this issue with reference to a small developing trade bloc–the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and its trading partners. The trade intensity index model is used to assess the determinants of intra-CARICOM and extra-CARICOM trade, placing focus on trade complementarity. The results showed that intra-CARICOM trade complementarity is low and concentrated in a few primary industries which can provide a possible explanation for the persistent low levels of intra-CARICOM trade. The findings also indicate that trade complementarity is generally low between CARICOM countries and their proposed FTA partners in the European Union (EU) and North America. The best natural trading partners for CARICOM countries are then identified based on a ranking of countries from 7 regions (CARICOM, the EU, North America, Asia, Central America, Latin America and Africa)

Trade, Economic and Welfare impacts of the CARICOM-Canada Free Trade Agreement

This paper estimates the trade, revenue and welfare effects of the proposed Caribbean Community (CARICOM)-Canada FTA on CARICOM countries using a partial equilibrium model. The welfare analysis also takes into account the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) which was signed in 2008 between the CARIFORUM (CARICOM and the Dominican Republic) countries and the EU. The Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index, trade complementarity index and transition probability matrices are employed to examine the dynamics of comparative advantage for CARICOM countries exports to Canada. The results obtained from the partial equilibrium model indicate adverse revenue and welfare effects for CARICOM member states. The results from various trade indices employed do not provide evidence to suggest that a FTA between CARICOM countries and Canada can improve trade outcomes

Trade, Economic and Welfare impacts of the CARICOM-Canada Free Trade Agreement

This paper estimates the trade, revenue and welfare effects of the proposed Caribbean Community (CARICOM)-Canada FTA on CARICOM countries using a partial equilibrium model. The welfare analysis also takes into account the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) which was signed in 2008 between the CARIFORUM (CARICOM and the Dominican Republic) countries and the EU. The Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index, trade complementarity index and transition probability matrices are employed to examine the dynamics of comparative advantage for CARICOM countries exports to Canada. The results obtained from the partial equilibrium model indicate adverse revenue and welfare effects for CARICOM member states. The results from various trade indices employed do not provide evidence to suggest that a FTA between CARICOM countries and Canada can improve trade outcomes

New Empirical Insights into the “Natural Trading Partner” Hypothesis for CARICOM Countries

The central notion of the natural trading partner hypothesis is that a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) will be welfare enhancing for members if there is a strong level of bilateral trade complementarity among their trade structures. This paper presents an empirical examination of this issue with reference to a small developing trade bloc–the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and its trading partners. The trade intensity index model is used to assess the determinants of intra-CARICOM and extra-CARICOM trade, placing focus on trade complementarity. The results showed that intra-CARICOM trade complementarity is low and concentrated in a few primary industries which can provide a possible explanation for the persistent low levels of intra-CARICOM trade. The findings also indicate that trade complementarity is generally low between CARICOM countries and their proposed FTA partners in the European Union (EU) and North America. The best natural trading partners for CARICOM countries are then identified based on a ranking of countries from 7 regions (CARICOM, the EU, North America, Asia, Central America, Latin America and Africa)

Trade Facilitation and Non-Energy Exports of Trinidad and Tobago

The economy of Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) has traditionally depended on its energy sector as a key driver of economic activity. This sector, however, has been shown to be volatile and vulnerable to global economic shocks; this is no more evident than what has been observed during the coronavirus pandemic. Oil prices have, as a result declined significantly, and this has put the economy on a path of compounded economic misfortune. The non-energy trade sector though has traditionally been identified as having more stable export earning potential and as such in adjusting to the economic nuances of the global shock associated with the coronavirus pandemic, there is an opportunity for policy makers to reconsider the role of the non-energy sector. This paper provides an overview of trade facilitation policy considerations to boost the outcomes of the non-energy sector. We find that factors such as language, port infrastructure liner connectivity and customs impact on export performance

Stimulating Non‐Energy Exports in Trinidad and Tobago: Evidence from a Small Petroleum‐Exporting Economy Experiencing the Dutch Disease

The motivation for this study hinges around the fact that Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) is suffering from the Dutch disease which inadvertently hinders the growth of non-energy exports. This paper examines measures that can be adopted for a small petroleum-exporting economy to dampen the effect of Dutch disease by promoting non-energy trade. This paper is novel and contributes to the literature in using panel data for the T&T case, as it investigates the effect of a devaluation of the TT dollar in order to stimulate non-energy exports (a combination of agriculture and manufacturing trade). Note that previous studies would have examined the Marshall–Lerner condition on the aggregate trade balance which is heavily influenced by energy revenues. The panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method is used for ten of T&T’s main trading partners for the period 1991 to 2019 to establish findings. The results show that the Marshall–Lerner condition does not hold for aggregate trade in the long run, as expected. However, when non-energy trade is isolated, it is found that a devaluation of the TT dollar does have a positive impact on non-energy trade and the Marshall–Lerner condition holds. Other measures are also recommended to stimulate non-energy exports in the long run