Comparative Analysis of Baseline Models for Rolling Price Forecasts in the German Continuous Intraday Electricity Market

peer reviewedShort-term electricity trading on intraday markets is crucial for integrating variable renewable energy in the power system. For instance, it allows energy suppliers to adjust their market positions based on updated variable renewable energy and consumption forecasts, reducing their potential imbalances. In the case of Germany, the continuous intraday market allows trading from the day before delivery until several minutes before delivery. However, the complex market design and high price volatility make developing price forecasting models challenging. This paper lays a foundation for price forecasting by comparing baseline models used to benchmark rolling continuous intraday price forecasts. These baselines help develop price forecasting models as they serve as a reference for these models. We also adapt a price normalization approach from the literature to benchmark price forecasts in a volatile market environment. Our baselines include the generalization of two baselines used in literature and one new baseline. We benchmark our baselines throughout 2021 and 2022. Among other baselines, we find that the price average of the last four trades yields the lowest root mean squared error. Moreover, the analysis suggests that baseline errors are independent of the market price development through normalization.U-AGR-8168 - ENOVOS Finatrax (01/07/2022 - 30/06/2025) - FRIDGEN Gilbert9. Industry, innovation and infrastructur

Identification of stable configurations in the superhydrogenation sequence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon molecules

Superhydrogenated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) molecules have been demonstrated to act as catalysts for molecular hydrogen formation under interstellar conditions. Here we present combined thermal desorption mass spectrometry measurements and density functional theory calculations that reveal the most stable configurations in the superhydrogenation sequence of the PAH molecule coronene (C24H12). Specifically, the experiments demonstrate the presence of stable configurations of superhydrogenated coronene at specific hydrogenation levels of 2, 10, 14, 18, and 24 extra hydrogen atoms. Density functional theory calculations of binding energies and barrier heights explain why these configurations are particularly stable and provide new insights into the superhydrogenation process of PAH molecules under interstellar conditions. Furthermore, an experimental cross-section for the first hydrogen atom addition to the neutral coronene molecule of \u3c3add = 2.7+2.7-0.9 7 10-2 A2 is derived from the experimental hydrogenation data

Resistance of Antarctic black fungi and cryptoendolithic communities to simulated space and Martian conditions

Dried colonies of the Antarctic rock-inhabiting meristematic fungi Cryomyces antarcticus CCFEE 515, CCFEE 534 and C. minteri CCFEE 5187, as well as fragments of rocks colonized by the Antarctic cryptoendolithic community, were exposed to a set of ground-based experiment verification tests (EVTs) at the German Aerospace Center (DLR, Köln, Germany). These were carried out to test the tolerance of these organisms in view of their possible exposure to space conditions outside of the International Space Station (ISS). Tests included single or combined simulated space and Martian conditions. Responses were analysed both by cultural and microscopic methods. Thereby, colony formation capacities were measured and the cellular viability was assessed using live/dead dyes FUN 1 and SYTOX Green. The results clearly suggest a general good resistance of all the samples investigated. C. minteri CCFEE 5187, C. antarcticus CCFEE 515 and colonized rocks were selected as suitable candidates to withstand space flight and long-term permanence in space on the ISS in the framework of the LIchens and Fungi Experiments (LIFE programme, European Space Agency)

Failed Municipalities in the Czech Republic

The presented dissertation thesis deals with endangered municipalities, where a specific threat to the municipality can potentially lead to the extinction of self-government. The phenomenon of endangered municipalities has not been comprehensively investigated within the framework of political science even though it is part of the issue of the functioning of the democratic process at the local level. Research on endangered municipalities has been fragmented across individual scientific disciplines, which view the problem through their own prism. The dissertation thesis seeks to contribute to the opening of a necessary discussion that should not remain aloof from political science. The thesis first examines the European context, which is crucial for the actual identification of different types of threats to municipalities. Five types of threats to the European municipalities have been identified. Individual types of threats have been described and possible threat scenarios created. Empirical examples have also been provided for each threat, based on which terminology has been proposed that can be used in political science to examine municipalities in trouble. The terminology has been used to systematize possible variants of municipal threats, and individual threats have been assigned to the...Předkládaná disertační práce se věnuje problematice ohrožených municipalit, kdy konkrétní ohrožení obce může vést v krajním případě k zániku samosprávy. Fenomén ohrožených (zhroucených) obcí do současné doby nebyl v rámci politické vědy v podstatě zkoumán, přestože je součástí problematiky fungování demokratického procesu na lokální úrovni. Výzkum ohrožených obcí je roztříštěn mezi jednotlivé vědní obory, které na problematiku nahlíží svým specifickým prismatem. Disertační práce chce přispět k zahájení potřebné diskuse, která by neměla zůstat stranou politické vědě. Práce se nejdříve věnuje evropskému kontextu, který je klíčový pro samotnou identifikaci různých druhů ohrožení municipalit. Bylo identifikováno pět druhů ohrožení evropských municipalit. Jednotlivé druhy ohrožení byly popsány a byly vytvořeny možné scénáře ohrožení. Rovněž byly k jednotlivým ohrožením uvedeny empirické příklady na základě, kterých byla navrhnuta terminologie, kterou lze v rámci politické vědy využívat při zkoumání obcí v problémech. Terminologie byla využita k systematizaci možných variant ohrožení municipalit, k variantám byly přiřazeny jednotlivá ohrožení. Text se již dále věnuje České republice, konkrétně determinantům ohrožení malých obcí. Následně je analyzováno 15 identifikovaným ohroženým malým českým obcím do...Department of Political ScienceKatedra politologieFakulta sociálních vědFaculty of Social Science

Endangered European Municipalities: A Systematic Outline of the Problem and Its Political Impact

Drawing on the experiences of Czech municipalities that cannot perform their local government role due to grave indebtedness, this article seeks to identify other European countries where municipalities may be facing existential problems. It can be assumed that grave indebtedness is not the only potential threat to communities in Europe. One aim of this study is, thus, to identify other possible threats to municipalities and provide specific examples. My goal, among other things, is to start a scholarly discussion about endangered municipalities and bring this phenomenon into the realm of political science. My methodology uses qualitative research and content analysis to identify potential threats that could in extreme cases wipe out European municipalities. To obtain data about specific endangered municipalities in Europe, I rely on snowball sampling, a method used by researchers to identify potential subjects who may be hard to locate. My findings identify five potential threats to European municipalities, which I divide into two groups: common and less common. I highlight the locations of endangered municipalities and those where problems are pending as well as the groups of municipalities in the greatest peril from individual threats. I also highlight potential political impacts. My approach uses empirical case studies to model possible scenarios. Based on this analysis and the experiences of specific endangered municipalities, I outline six general forms of endangerment and eight different courses of municipal endangerment

Implementation of Business Intelligence in Nonprofit Organization

This thesis is focused on the possibility of using Business Intelligence tools in a non-profit organization. These tools should be used to create regular and special data analyses and to replace current, no longer satisfactory method of data processing. The main objective was to create a proposal of implementation of Business Intelligence solution for the Children's Safety Line (Sdružení Linka bezpečí). In order to fulfil the main objective, secondary objectives were identified, specifically the discovery of a suitable adjustment of the Balanced Scorecard methodology for non-profit organizations and its application on the Children's Safety Line. The main objective of this thesis was achieved by creating a proposal; the proposed solution was implemented in the Safety Line environment. The thesis is devided into a theoretical and practical part. The theoretical part uses Business Intelligence tools, Balanced Scorecard methodology (adjusted for non-profit sector) and contains the Commentated research. The practical part is devoted to a general description of the Safety Line, application of BSC methodology, and a proposal of Business Intelligence implementation in the Safety Line

Failed Municipalities in the Czech Republic

The presented dissertation thesis deals with endangered municipalities, where a specific threat to the municipality can potentially lead to the extinction of self-government. The phenomenon of endangered municipalities has not been comprehensively investigated within the framework of political science even though it is part of the issue of the functioning of the democratic process at the local level. Research on endangered municipalities has been fragmented across individual scientific disciplines, which view the problem through their own prism. The dissertation thesis seeks to contribute to the opening of a necessary discussion that should not remain aloof from political science. The thesis first examines the European context, which is crucial for the actual identification of different types of threats to municipalities. Five types of threats to the European municipalities have been identified. Individual types of threats have been described and possible threat scenarios created. Empirical examples have also been provided for each threat, based on which terminology has been proposed that can be used in political science to examine municipalities in trouble. The terminology has been used to systematize possible variants of municipal threats, and individual threats have been assigned to the..

Failed Municipalities in the Czech Republic

The presented dissertation thesis deals with endangered municipalities, where a specific threat to the municipality can potentially lead to the extinction of self-government. The phenomenon of endangered municipalities has not been comprehensively investigated within the framework of political science even though it is part of the issue of the functioning of the democratic process at the local level. Research on endangered municipalities has been fragmented across individual scientific disciplines, which view the problem through their own prism. The dissertation thesis seeks to contribute to the opening of a necessary discussion that should not remain aloof from political science. The thesis first examines the European context, which is crucial for the actual identification of different types of threats to municipalities. Five types of threats to the European municipalities have been identified. Individual types of threats have been described and possible threat scenarios created. Empirical examples have also been provided for each threat, based on which terminology has been proposed that can be used in political science to examine municipalities in trouble. The terminology has been used to systematize possible variants of municipal threats, and individual threats have been assigned to the..