OFFICIAL STATISTICS: ABOVE AND BELOW THE PUBLIC DEBATE. THIRTIETH GEARY LECTURE, 1999

Roy Geary was a person of great distinction, recognised for a wide range of achievements. He was a first class mathematician who made significant contributions to statistical theory. He was an Official Statistician of distinction and he made great contributions to the development of economic statistics and to the use of statistics for policy purposes in fields as diverse as demography and economic statistics. He was the first Director of the Central Statistics Office when it was created in 1949 and I am delighted to be asked to present this lecture in the CSO’s 50th birthday year

Minds, A New Way of Learning*

INCOLSA and the Indiana State library have worked the last few years on creating a video conference network among Indiana Libraries. Today, there are 18 sites around the state using state of the art equipment, paid for with LSTA (Library Services and Technology Act) funding, to interact and train the staff and public via Distance Learning. These sites include 16 public libraries, INCOLSA and the Indiana State Library

Use of primary care data for identifying individuals at risk of cardiovascular disease

The aim of this research was to explore the potential of routinely collected primary care data to support the identification of individuals for cardiovascular risk reduction. The work involved a systematic literature review of reminder interventions operating at the point of care; a randomised controlled trial of a novel software tool to facilitate the targeting of individuals at risk of cardiovascular disease; and an exploration of qualitative issues relevant to the challenge of cardiovascular risk reduction in current practice. The Systematic review resulted in a narrative synthesis and a meta-analysis. It concluded that reminder interventions are generally effective at changing practitioner behaviour, but the effect is inconsistent, probably dependent on organisational context, and difficult to predict. The e-Nudge trial involved 19 practices in Coventry and Warwickshire, who used the e-Nudge software tool for two years. This tool was programmed for the project by the clinical software company EMIS. Whilst the primary outcome (cardiovascular event rate) was not significantly reduced in this timescale, a beneficial effect was demonstrated on the adequacy of data to support risk estimation and on the visibility of the at risk population. A new means of addressing the problem of undiagnosed and late-diagnosed diabetes was also discovered. Qualitative aspects of this area of care are presented through a discussion of ethical issues, a limited series of interviews with members of the public included in the appendix, and extensive field notes taken throughout the research. These provide some context in support of the e-Nudge trial. Routinely collected data of UK general practice provide a potentially rich resource to support primary cardiovascular disease prevention, but practical, ethical and conceptual issues must all be addressed to optimise their impact. This conclusion forms the thesis to be explored and justified through this dissertation

Portable Wind Turbine Blade Leading Edge Erosion Test

Turbine Technology Partners, LLC (TTP) is a company located in Santa Barbara, California that provides expert independent engineering (IE) consulting services to the wind energy industry - supporting its goal of generating cost effective and reliable carbon-free renewal energy for the world. TTP customers include some of the largest wind turbine original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), wind turbine power plant developers, and wind turbine owner/operators. One of the biggest problems challenging the wind energy industry currently is the power loss that results from the leading edge (LE) erosion of wind turbine blades. The purpose of our senior design project is to create an erosion test chamber that will simulate erosion conditions and compare the relative effectiveness of different erosion-resistant solutions, such as coatings or tapes. This document highlights our team’s goals for the project, which are a result of sponsor and user interviews, technical background research, product research, and project objectives research. Our key findings from research and interviews are that testing units for LE protection solutions should follow the guidelines set forth in the recommended practices 0171 from Det Norske Veritas Germanischer Lloyd (DNVGL), an international accredited energy registrar. We have gone through a rigorous design process to come up with the design that we have chosen as our final design. The included Gantt chart shows our project’s timeline of completion. This document, the Final Design Review (FDR), is designed to describe the process by which ideation and down-selection occurred and to explain and defend the chosen concept

A data driven nonlinear stochastic model for blood glucose dynamics

The development of adequate mathematical models for blood glucose dynamics may improve early diagnosis and control of diabetes mellitus (DM). We have developed a stochastic nonlinear second order differential equation to describe the response of blood glucose concentration to food intake using continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data. A variational Bayesian learning scheme was applied to define the number and values of the system's parameters by iterative optimisation of free energy. The model has the minimal order and number of parameters to successfully describe blood glucose dynamics in people with and without DM. The model accounts for the nonlinearity and stochasticity of the underlying glucose–insulin dynamic process. Being data-driven, it takes full advantage of available CGM data and, at the same time, reflects the intrinsic characteristics of the glucose–insulin system without detailed knowledge of the physiological mechanisms. We have shown that the dynamics of some postprandial blood glucose excursions can be described by a reduced (linear) model, previously seen in the literature. A comprehensive analysis demonstrates that deterministic system parameters belong to different ranges for diabetes and controls. Implications for clinical practice are discussed. This is the first study introducing a continuous data-driven nonlinear stochastic model capable of describing both DM and non-DM profiles

A weird but interesting journey: Personal traumatic growth for individuals with hallucinations

Objectives: Hallucinations can be traumatic. However, research into 'post-traumatic growth' in relation to hallucinations is scarce. This study aims to further our understanding of personal growth in the context of hallucinations. Design: A phenomenological qualitative approach was used to explore experiences of personal growth with hallucinations, adopting Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA) methodology. Methods: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with seven people who experience hallucinations. Participants were asked about experiences of personal growth, their expectations of individual transformation, and facilitating and hindering factors in the attainment of personal growth. Transcripts were analysed ensuring suitable saturation and representation of the data was achieved. Results: One overall theme (A journey towards personal growth) and five subthemes were identified: A difficult journey taken day by day, Stigma, Acceptance, Finding the right support, and Personal growth. Conclusions: Findings supported personal growth in the context of hallucinations and highlighted facilitators and barriers. Practitioner points • There is scarce literature supporting the development of personal growth with hallucinatory experiences and it is empirically limited. The present research provides greater information into the phenomenon to inform service provision. • The importance of acceptance and maintaining hope for change was highlighted. • Services and the use of coping strategies were both identified as facilitative and hindering of personal growth. • This research provides a necessary alternative to the often negative literature; challenging societal perceptions and helping promote much needed hope in clinicians, the public and individuals experiencing hallucinations

Use of primary care data for identifying individuals at risk of cardiovascular disease

The aim of this research was to explore the potential of routinely collected primary care data to support the identification of individuals for cardiovascular risk reduction. The work involved a systematic literature review of reminder interventions operating at the point of care; a randomised controlled trial of a novel software tool to facilitate the targeting of individuals at risk of cardiovascular disease; and an exploration of qualitative issues relevant to the challenge of cardiovascular risk reduction in current practice. The Systematic review resulted in a narrative synthesis and a meta-analysis. It concluded that reminder interventions are generally effective at changing practitioner behaviour, but the effect is inconsistent, probably dependent on organisational context, and difficult to predict. The e-Nudge trial involved 19 practices in Coventry and Warwickshire, who used the e-Nudge software tool for two years. This tool was programmed for the project by the clinical software company EMIS. Whilst the primary outcome (cardiovascular event rate) was not significantly reduced in this timescale, a beneficial effect was demonstrated on the adequacy of data to support risk estimation and on the visibility of the at risk population. A new means of addressing the problem of undiagnosed and late-diagnosed diabetes was also discovered. Qualitative aspects of this area of care are presented through a discussion of ethical issues, a limited series of interviews with members of the public included in the appendix, and extensive field notes taken throughout the research. These provide some context in support of the e-Nudge trial. Routinely collected data of UK general practice provide a potentially rich resource to support primary cardiovascular disease prevention, but practical, ethical and conceptual issues must all be addressed to optimise their impact. This conclusion forms the thesis to be explored and justified through this dissertation.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

An Analysis of the Effectiveness of E-Commerce at United Parcel Service

This paper is an analysis of e-commerce at United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS). The paper begins with a general overview of the company’s IT environment to establish awareness of the size and complexity of this corporation. The analysis includes a macro level breakdown of the technology infrastructure of UPS ranging from the amount of data centers the company has, to the amount of PCs currently in operation. The study also more closely analyzes the software and database structure of UPS. Furthermore, an analysis of the company’s E-commerce activities was conducted and includes an interview with Tom Creech, the North Florida District E-commerce manager at UPS. Finally, research was conducted to evaluate the emerging technologies that UPS will soon be implementing and should be employing in the future to support the business strategy and maintain its competitive edge

Putting Proverbs to the Test:An Engaging Approach for Developing Students' Hypothesis Testing Skills

Integral to most undergraduate psychology degree programs are research methods courses. Students learn about theory, study design and hypothesis testing, and gain knowledge that is assessed by laboratory reports. We describe a problem-based learning approach with an emphasis on acquisition of study design skills. Working in small groups, students took well-known falsifiable proverbs, developed hypotheses to test them, recruited and assessed participants, analyzed the data, and presented their findings in a poster format. This approach allowed students to develop key skills to systematically experiment with an idea using proverbs as a proxy for theory. We suggest proverb testing as a useful technique to engage student-centered active learning in psychology and in the behavioral sciences more broadly