Source apportionment of circum-Arctic atmospheric black carbon from isotopes and modeling

Black carbon (BC) contributes to Arctic climate warming, yet source attributions are inaccurate due to lacking observational constraints and uncertainties in emission inventories. Year-round, isotope-constrained observations reveal strong seasonal variations in BC sources with a consistent and synchronous pattern at all Arctic sites. These sources were dominated by emissions from fossil fuel combustion in the winter and by biomass burning in the summer. The annual mean source of BC to the circum-Arctic was 39 ± 10% from biomass burning. Comparison of transport-model predictions with the observations showed good agreement for BC concentrations, with larger discrepancies for (fossil/biomass burning) sources. The accuracy of simulated BC concentration, but not of origin, points to misallocations of emissions in the emission inventories. The consistency in seasonal source contributions of BC throughout the Arctic provides strong justification for targeted emission reductions to limit the impact of BC on climate warming in the Arctic and beyond

Identifying Unique Neighborhood Characteristics to Guide Health Planning for Stroke and Heart Attack: Fuzzy Cluster and Discriminant Analyses Approaches

Socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic factors are known determinants of stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) risk. Clustering of these factors in neighborhoods needs to be taken into consideration during planning, prioritization and implementation of health programs intended to reduce disparities. Given the complex and multidimensional nature of these factors, multivariate methods are needed to identify neighborhood clusters of these determinants so as to better understand the unique neighborhood profiles. This information is critical for evidence-based health planning and service provision. Therefore, this study used a robust multivariate approach to classify neighborhoods and identify their socio-demographic characteristics so as to provide information for evidence-based neighborhood health planning for stroke and MI.The study was performed in East Tennessee Appalachia, an area with one of the highest stroke and MI risks in USA. Robust principal component analysis was performed on neighborhood (census tract) socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, obtained from the US Census, to reduce the dimensionality and influence of outliers in the data. Fuzzy cluster analysis was used to classify neighborhoods into Peer Neighborhoods (PNs) based on their socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Nearest neighbor discriminant analysis and decision trees were used to validate PNs and determine the characteristics important for discrimination. Stroke and MI mortality risks were compared across PNs. Four distinct PNs were identified and their unique characteristics and potential health needs described. The highest risk of stroke and MI mortality tended to occur in less affluent PNs located in urban areas, while the suburban most affluent PNs had the lowest risk.Implementation of this multivariate strategy provides health planners useful information to better understand and effectively plan for the unique neighborhood health needs and is important in guiding resource allocation, service provision, and policy decisions to address neighborhood health disparities and improve population health

Neighborhood disparities in stroke and myocardial infarction mortality: a GIS and spatial scan statistics approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) are serious public health burdens in the US. These burdens vary by geographic location with the highest mortality risks reported in the southeastern US. While these disparities have been investigated at state and county levels, little is known regarding disparities in risk at lower levels of geography, such as neighborhoods. Therefore, the objective of this study was to investigate spatial patterns of stroke and MI mortality risks in the East Tennessee Appalachian Region so as to identify neighborhoods with the highest risks.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Stroke and MI mortality data for the period 1999-2007, obtained free of charge upon request from the Tennessee Department of Health, were aggregated to the census tract (neighborhood) level. Mortality risks were age-standardized by the direct method. To adjust for spatial autocorrelation, population heterogeneity, and variance instability, standardized risks were smoothed using Spatial Empirical Bayesian technique. Spatial clusters of high risks were identified using spatial scan statistics, with a discrete Poisson model adjusted for age and using a 5% scanning window. Significance testing was performed using 999 Monte Carlo permutations. Logistic models were used to investigate neighborhood level socioeconomic and demographic predictors of the identified spatial clusters.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 3,824 stroke deaths and 5,018 MI deaths. Neighborhoods with significantly high mortality risks were identified. Annual stroke mortality risks ranged from 0 to 182 per 100,000 population (median: 55.6), while annual MI mortality risks ranged from 0 to 243 per 100,000 population (median: 65.5). Stroke and MI mortality risks exceeded the state risks of 67.5 and 85.5 in 28% and 32% of the neighborhoods, respectively. Six and ten significant (p < 0.001) spatial clusters of high risk of stroke and MI mortality were identified, respectively. Neighborhoods belonging to high risk clusters of stroke and MI mortality tended to have high proportions of the population with low education attainment.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These methods for identifying disparities in mortality risks across neighborhoods are useful for identifying high risk communities and for guiding population health programs aimed at addressing health disparities and improving population health.</p

Research that Facilitates Praxis and Praxis Development

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Construct development: The Suicide Trigger Scale (STS-2), a measure of a hypothesized suicide trigger state

This study aims to develop the construct of a 'suicide trigger state' by exploring data gathered with a novel psychometric self-report instrument, the STS-2. The STS-2, was administered to 141 adult psychiatric patients with suicidal ideation. Multiple statistical methods were used to explore construct validity and structure. Cronbach's alpha (0.949) demonstrated excellent internal consistency. Factor analyses yielded two-component solutions with good agreement. The first component described near-psychotic somatization and ruminative flooding, while the second described frantic hopelessness. ROC analysis determined an optimal cut score for a history of suicide attempt, with significance of p < 0.03. Logistic regression analysis found items sensitive to history of suicide attempt described ruminative flooding, doom, hopelessness, entrapment and dread. The STS-2 appears to measure a distinct and novel clinical entity, which we speculatively term the 'suicide trigger state.' High scores on the STS-2 associate with reported history of past suicide attempt

Characterizing natural degradation of tetrachloroethene (PCE) using a multidisciplinary approach

A site in mid-western Sweden contaminated with chlorinated solvents originating from a previous dry cleaning facility, was investigated using conventional groundwater analysis combined with compound-specific isotope data of carbon, microbial DNA analysis, and geoelectrical tomography techniques. We show the value of this multidisciplinary approach, as the different results supported each interpretation, and show where natural degradation occurs at the site. The zone where natural degradation occurred was identified in the transition between two geological units, where the change in hydraulic conductivity may have facilitated biofilm formation and microbial activity. This observation was confirmed by all methods and the examination of the impact of geological conditions on the biotransformation process was facilitated by the unique combination of the applied methods. There is thus significant benefit from deploying an extended array of methods for these investigations, with the potential to reduce costs involved in remediation of contaminated sediment and groundwater