Spatial variability in correlation decay distance and influence on angular-distance weighting interpolation of daily precipitation over Europe

Angular-distance weighting (ADW) is a common approach for interpolation of an irregular network of meteorological observations to a regular grid. A widely used version of ADW employs the correlation decay distance (CDD) to (1) select stations that should contribute to each grid-point estimate and (2) define the distance component of the station weights. We show, for Europe, that the CDD of daily precipitation varies spatially, as well as by season and synoptic state, and is also anisotropic. However, ADW interpolation using CDDs that varies spatially by season or synoptic state yield only small improvements in interpolation skill, relative to the use of a fixed CDD across the entire domain. If CDDs are optimized through cross validation, a larger improvement in interpolation skill is achieved. Improvements are larger for the determination of the state of precipitation (wet/dry) than for the magnitude. These or other attempts to improve interpolation skill appear to be fundamentally limited by the available station networ

The influence of interpolation and station network density on the distributions and trends of climate variables in gridded daily data

We study the influence of station network density on the distributions and trends in indices of area-average daily precipitation and temperature in the E-OBS high resolution gridded dataset of daily climate over Europe, which was produced with the primary purpose of Regional Climate Model evaluation. Area averages can only be determined with reasonable accuracy from a sufficiently large number of stations within a grid-box. However, the station network on which E-OBS is based comprises only 2,316 stations, spread unevenly across approximately 18,000 0.22A degrees grid-boxes. Consequently, grid-box data in E-OBS are derived through interpolation of stations up to 500 km distant, with the distance of stations that contribute significantly to any grid-box value increasing in areas with lower station density. Since more dispersed stations have less shared variance, the resultant interpolated values are likely to be over-smoothed, and extreme daily values even more so. We perform an experiment over five E-OBS grid boxes for precipitation and temperature that have a sufficiently dense local station network to enable a reasonable estimate of the area-average. We then create a series of randomly selected station sub-networks ranging in size from four to all stations within the E-OBS interpolation search radii. For each sub-network realisation, we estimate the grid-box average applying the same interpolation methodology as used for E-OBS, and then evaluate the effect of network density on the distribution of daily values, as well as trends in extremes indices. The results show that when fewer stations have been used for the interpolation, both precipitation and temperature are over-smoothed, leading to a strong tendency for interpolated daily values to be reduced relative to the "true" area-average. The smoothing is greatest for higher percentiles, and therefore has a disproportionate effect on extremes and any derived extremes indices. For many regions of the E-OBS dataset, the station density is sufficiently low to expect this smoothing effect to be significant and this should be borne in mind by any users of the E-OBS dataset

Giant scour-fills in ancient channel-lobe transition zones: Formative processes and depositional architecture

Scours are common features of modern deep-marine seascapes, particularly downstream of the mouths of slope channels within channel-lobe transition zones (CLTZs). Their dimensions can exceed hundreds of metres in width and length, and tens of metres in depth. However, the stratigraphic architecture of the infill of these erosional bedforms is rarely described from the rock record and no large (>100 m width) scours have been described in detail from exhumed CLTZs. Here, the infill of two erosional features (0.5-1 km long and 15-20 m thick) from the Permian Karoo Basin succession, South Africa, are presented from palaeogeographically well- constrained CLTZs; one from Fan 3 in the Tanqua depocentre and one from Unit A5 in the Laingsburg depocentre. The basal erosion surfaces of the features are asymmetric with steep, undulating, and composite upstream margins, and low gradient simple downstream margins. The basal infill consists of thin-bedded siltstone and sandstone beds cut by closely-spaced scours; these beds are interpreted as partially reworked fine grained tails of bypassing flows with evidence for flow deflection. The erosional features are interpreted as giant scour-fills. The internal architecture suggests different evolutionary histories for each case. The Unit A5 scour-fill shows a simple cut-and-fill history with lateral and upward transitions from siltstone- to sandstone-prone deposits. In contrast, the Fan 3 scour-fill shows headward erosion and lengthening of the scour surface suggesting temporal changes in the interaction between turbidity currents and the scour surface. This relationship could support the occurrence of a hydraulic jump during part of the fill history, while the majority of the fill represents deposition from subcritical flows. Diversity in scour preservation mechanisms could explain the variety in depositional histories. The architecture, sedimentary facies and palaeoflow patterns of the scour-fills are distinctly different to well documented adjacent basin-floor channel-fills at the same stratigraphic levels. The recognition of scour-fills helps to constrain their sedimentological and stratigraphic expression in the subsurface, and to improve our understanding of the stratigraphic architecture of channel-lobe transition zones

Towards online relational schema transformations

Current relational database systems are ill-equipped for changing the structure of data while the database is in use. This is a real problem for systems for which we expect 24/7 availability, such as telecommunication, payment, and control systems. As a result, developers tend to avoid making changes because of the downtime consequences. The urgency to solve this problem is evident by a multitude of tools developed in industry, such as pt-online-schema-change(1) and oak-online-alter- table(2). Also, MySQL recently added limited support for online schema changes(3).\ud \ud Contributions: We want to draw the attention of the database community to the problem of online schema changes. We have defined requirements for online schema change mechanisms, and we have experimentally investigated existing solutions. Our results show that current solutions are unsatisfactory for complex schema changes. We propose lazy schema changes as a solution.\ud \ud Experimental Setup: To assess the performance and behaviour of existing mechanisms for on- line schema changes, we have developed an experiment based on the standard TPC-C benchmark. For each of the relational schema transformation classes that we have identified, we chose a rep- resentative transformation for the TPC-C schema. We perform the schema change online while the TPC-C benchmark is running, and measure the impact on the TPC-C transaction through- put. We have performed our experiment on PostgreSQL, which does not support online schema changes, MySQL, which supports basic online schema changes, and using pt-online-schema-change on MySQL, as a representative for tools that use triggers to allow online schema changes.\ud \ud Results: We found that existing solutions are inadequate except for the simplest of schema changes. Some single-relation transformations can be performed transactionally and online. How- ever, existing solutions do not allow schema transformations to be composed using transactions. As a result, in complex transformations, intermediate states can be exposed to database programs, which are non-trivial to handle correctly. A secondary problem is that these solutions are much slower than offline transformations, which may not be acceptable for certain applications.\ud \ud Proposal: We propose a more fundamental solution based on lazy schema transformations. The main idea is that schema changes can be described as a view on the existing schema, which can be materialized lazily to perform the schema transformation. The data in the new schema is immedi- ately accessible by computing parts of the view on demand. For a large number of cases we expect that this approach allows schema transformations without any downtime, and with minimal impact on running transactions, while the ACID properties are maintained. Moreover, lazy transforma- tions can naturally be composed as transactions, allowing complex online schema transformations. We are developing an implementation of these ideas based on a persistent functional language

The Impact of Fine-scale Reservoir Geometries on Streamline Flow Patterns in Submarine Lobe Deposits Using Outcrop Analogues from the Karoo Basin

Improved prediction of the recovery of oil-in-place in basin-floor fan reservoirs requires accurate characterisation and modelling of multiscale heterogeneities. The use of outcrop analogues is a key tool to augment this process by documenting and quantifying sedimentary architecture, hierarchy, and sedimentary facies relationships. A 3D geological modelling workflow is presented that tests the impact of fine-scale heterogeneities within basin-floor lobe complexes on reservoir connectivity. Construction of geological models of a basin-floor lobe complex allows realistic depositional architecture and facies distributions to be captured. Additionally, detailed models are constructed from channelised areas within a basin-floor lobe complex. Petrophysical modelling and streamline analysis are employed to test the impact on reservoir connectivity between lobe models with i) vertically-stacked facies with coarsening- and thickening-upwards trends in all locations, and ii) lateral facies changes with dimensions and distributions constrained from outcrop data. The findings show that differences in facies architecture, and in particular lobe-on-lobe amalgamation, have a significant impact on connectivity and macroscopic sweep efficiency, which influence the production results. Channelised lobe areas are less predictable reservoir targets due to uncertainties associated with channel-fill heterogeneities. The use of deterministic sedimentary architecture concepts and facies relationships have proven vital in the accurate modelling of reservoir heterogeneities

Estimated Worldwide Mortality Attributed to Secondhand Tobacco Smoke Exposure, 1990-2016

Importance: The World Health Organization estimates that the 1 billion individuals who smoke worldwide contribute to the 880 000 secondhand smoke (SHS)-related deaths among individuals who do not smoke each year. A better understanding of the scale of harm of SHS to those who do not smoke could increase awareness of the consequences of smoking and help to design measures to protect individuals who do not smoke, especially children. Objective: To calculate the number of individuals who smoke associated with the death of 1 individual who died of SHS exposure both on a global scale and in various World Bank regions. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cross-sectional epidemiologic assessment, data from Our World in Data were used to tabulate the number of individuals who smoke in each country and number of premature deaths related to SHS in that country from 1990 to 2016. The mean number of cigarettes consumed in all countries was also included in analyses. Data were collected for the following World Bank regions: North America, Latin America and the Caribbean, Europe and Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and East Asia and the Pacific from 1990 and 2016. Statistical analysis was conducted in July 2019. Exposure: Secondhand smoke. Main Outcomes and Measures: The pack-year index, calculated as the number of pack-years associated with the death of 1 individual who does not smoke but was exposed to SHS, and the SHS index, calculated as the number of individuals who smoked for 24 years (ie, the mean duration of smoking) associated with the death of 1 individual who does not smoke. Results: Globally, the SHS index changed favorably, from 31.3 (95% CI, 30.6-32.0) individuals who smoked associated with the death of 1 individual who did not smoke in 1990 to 52.3 (95% CI, 51.2-53.5) individuals who smoked in 2016. There was a wide regional variation in the 2016 secondhand smoke index, from 42.6 (95% CI, 41.6-43.5) individuals who smoked in the Middle East and North Africa to 85.7 (95% CI, 83.8-87.7) individuals who smoked in North America. Worldwide, the pack-year index also changed favorably from 751.9 (95% CI, 736.3-770.7) pack-years associated with 1 death in 1990 to 1255.9 (95% CI, 1227.2-1284.4) pack-years in 2016. Conclu

Mutations in SCG10 Are Not Involved in Hirschsprung Disease

Hirschsprung disease (HSCR) is a congenital malformation characterized by the absence of enteric neurons in the distal part of the colon. Several genes have been implicated in the development of this disease that together account for 20% of all cases, implying that other genes are involved. Since HSCR is frequently associated with other congenital malformations, the functional characterization of the proteins encoded by the genes involved in these syndromes can provide insights into the protein-network involved in HSCR development. Recently, we found that KBP, encoded by the gene involved in a HSCR- associated syndrome called Goldberg-Shprintzen syndrome, interacts with SCG10, a stathmin-like protein. To determine if SCG10 is involved in the etiology of HSCR, we determined SCG10 expression levels during development and screened 85 HSCR patients for SCG10 mutations. We showed that SCG10 expression increases during development but no germline mutation was found in any of these patients. In conclusion, this study shows that SCG10 is not directly implicated in HSCR development. However, an indirect involvement of SCG10 cannot be ruled out as this can be due to a secondary effect caused by its direct interactors

Congenital Short Bowel Syndrome: from clinical and genetic diagnosis to the molecular mechanisms involved in intestinal elongation

AbstractCongenital Short Bowel Syndrome (CSBS) is a rare gastrointestinal disorder in which the mean length of the small intestine is substantially reduced when compared to its normal counterpart. Families with several affected members have been described and CSBS has been suggested to have a genetic basis. Recently, our group found mutations in CLMP as the cause of the recessive form of CSBS, and mutations in FLNA as the cause of the X-linked form of the disease. These findings have improved the quality of genetic counselling for CSBS patients and made prenatal diagnostics possible. Moreover, they provided a reliable starting point to further investigate the pathogenesis of CSBS, and to better understand the development of the small intestine. In this review, we present our current knowledge on CSBS and discuss hypotheses on how the recent genetic findings can help understand the cause of CSBS