The effectiveness of a large protected area to conserve a global endemism hotspot may vanish in the face of climate and land-use changes

Endemic vertebrates are a crucial component of biodiversity, yet face disproportionally high extinction risk as climate and land-use changes drive habitat loss. Large protected areas are therefore deemed necessary to mitigate biodiversity loss. In 2021, China's Giant Panda National Park (GPNP, 27,134 km(2)) was established in one of the global endemism hotspots. In this study we ask the question whether this large national park is able to conserve the many threatened endemic vertebrates occurring in the region in the face of climate and land-use changes, in order to assess the long-term effectiveness of the GPNP. We used species distribution modeling techniques to project the distributions of 40 threatened terrestrial (and freshwater) endemic vertebrates under land-use and climate change scenarios SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 in 2081-2100, and assessed the extent to which their distributions are covered by the GPNP, now and in the future. We found that by 2081-2100, two thirds of the threatened endemic vertebrates are predicted to lose part (15-79%, N = 4) of or (nearly) their entire (80-100% loss, N = 23) range under all three climate and land-use change scenarios. Consequently, fewer species are predicted to occur in the GPNP than at present. Our findings confirm the high vulnerability of threatened endemic species to climate and land-use changes, despite protected areas. Habitat loss due to climate and land-use changes elevate extinction risk of species in endemism hotspots across the globe. Urgent, widespread and intensified mitigation measures and adaptation measures are required at a landscape scale for effective conservation efforts in the future

Policy language in restoration ecology

elating restoration ecology to policy is one of the aims of the Society for Ecological Restoration and its journal Restoration Ecology. As an interdisciplinary team of researchers in both ecological science and political science, we have struggled with how policy-relevant language is and could be deployed in restoration ecology. Using language in scientific publications that resonates with overarching policy questions may facilitate linkages between researcher investigations and decision-makers' concerns on all levels. Climate change is the most important environmental problem of our time and to provide policymakers with new relevant knowledge on this problem is of outmost importance. To determine whether or not policy-specific language was being included in restoration ecology science, we surveyed the field of restoration ecology from 2008 to 2010, identifying 1,029 articles, which we further examined for the inclusion of climate change as a key element of the research. We found that of the 58 articles with “climate change” or “global warming” in the abstract, only 3 identified specific policies relevant to the research results. We believe that restoration ecologists are failing to include themselves in policy formation and implementation of issues such as climate change within journals focused on restoration ecology. We suggest that more explicit reference to policies and terminology recognizable to policymakers might enhance the impact of restoration ecology on decision-making processes

Simulating Long-Term Effects of Bioenergy Extraction on Dead Wood Availability at a Landscape Scale in Sweden

Wood bioenergy may decrease the reliance on fossil carbon and mitigate anticipated increases in temperature. However, increased use of wood bioenergy may have large impacts on forest biodiversity primarily through the loss of dead wood habitats. We evaluated both the large-scale and long-term effects of different bioenergy extraction scenarios on the availability of dead wood and the suitability of the resulting habitat for saproxylic species, using a spatially explicit forest landscape simulation framework applied in the Swedish boreal forest. We demonstrate that bioenergy extraction scenarios, differing in the level of removal of biomass, can have significant effects on dead wood volumes. Although all of the scenarios led to decreasing levels of dead wood, the scenario aimed at species conservation led to highest volumes of dead wood (about 10 m3 ha−1) and highest connectivity of dead wood patches (mean proximity index of 78), whilst the scenario aimed at reaching zero fossil fuel targets led to the lowest levels (about 8 m3 ha−1) and least connectivity (mean proximity index of 7). Our simulations stress that further exploitation of dead wood from sites where volumes are already below suggested habitat thresholds for saproxylic species will very likely have further negative effects on dead wood dependent species

Alien species in a warming climate: a case study of the nutcracker and stone pines

Species are predicted to shift their geographic range with climate change, which increases the need for good conservation planning and management practices. Not only may climate change increase the number of invasive species in parts of the world, it may also lead to some species becoming invasive under new, more preferable, climatic conditions. This study investigates whether climate change may enhance the spread of alien species by another alien species. I use the interaction between the alien slender-billed nutcracker and alien, potentially invasive, stone pines as a case-study and specifically aim to quantify to which extent the potential spread of stone pine species in Sweden in a warming climate is augmented by its dispersal agent: the slender-billed nutcracker. I found that accounting for the future climatic niche of the slender-billed nutcracker, and therefore for its potential presence, significantly augmented the increase of the predicted future range of the stone pines under climate change. This result does not only stress the importance of accounting for species interactions when assessing the impact of climate change on species’ future geographic ranges, it also stresses the need for nature conservationists and managers to incorporate species interactions and climate change when designing appropriate plans with regard to invasive species. Although the implications of the predicted future spread of the slender-billed nutcracker might be limited, since the very similar thick-billed nutcracker is native to Sweden, the effects of the stone pines should not be neglected. They are currently classified as potentially invasive in parts of the Nordic region

Not erroneous but cautious conclusions about the potential effect of climate change on the geographical distribution of insect pest species in the Swedish boreal forest. Response to Björklund et al. (2015)

We argue that the conclusions drawn from the paper “The potential effect of climate change on the geographical distribution of insect pest species in the Swedish boreal forest”, published in the Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research were not erroneous as stated by a letter published in the same journal by Björklund et al. (2015. Erroneous conclusions about current geographical distribution and future expansion of forest insects in Northern Sweden: Comments on Hof and Svahlin (2015). Scand. J. Forest Res)”, but cautious. We regret possible underestimations caused by lack of occurrence records for some species for some areas. However, basing predictions of the impact of future climate change on the distribution of species on current range maps likely leads to grave overestimations of future range predictions since current range maps assume species are homogenously distributed throughout the landscape, which is often not the case. We argue that underestimating the distribution range of pest species rather than overestimating their distribution pinpoints areas that may need extra attention in future better, and therefore chose to be cautious rather than bold. We further like to stress that one should always be aware of possible insect outbreaks throughout the region, not only because predictions may underestimate the future distribution of species but also since the location and likelihood of insect pest outbreaks is not only determined by climatic factors

Can pikas hold the umbrella? Understanding the current and future umbrella potential of keystone species Pika (Ochotona spp.)

The umbrella species concept is a frequently used concept in conservation since the conservation of an umbrella species may benefit other species. Keystone species are often suggested as potential umbrella species, but the validity of this approach remains uncertain. Moreover, climate change can have a multidirectional effect on the distribution of species, in which the distribution of umbrella species can be affected differently than that of beneficiary species. The validity of applying the umbrella species concept in conservation may thus be jeopardised by climate change. This study assessed the potential of two keystone species, the plateau pika (Ochotona curzoniae) and the Daurian pika (Ochotona dauurica), to be umbrella species for 13 potentially beneficiary species under current and future environmental conditions. Of these 13 species, five currently only co-occur with the plateau pika, five only with the Daurian pika, and three with both pika species. Current and future distributions of the pika species and potentially beneficiary species were predicted using bioclimatic and land-use variables. Range overlaps, Pearson correlations, niche similarity tests and relative suitability tests were performed to assess the umbrella potential of both pika species. Our results show that at present, both pika species may be considered to be umbrella species, benefitting several co-occurring species. However, species that currently co-occur with both pika species will not benefit from conservation of either of the pikas in the future years under climate change scenarios. The plateau pika loses its potential to act as umbrella species for two of the four species which currently may benefit. We can conclude that keystone species like pikas can act as umbrella species for carefully selected potentially beneficiary species under current conditions. Due to climate change related shifts in species distributions, they may however lose their umbrella species status in the future, which should be considered when selecting species conservation strategies

The impact of grassy field margins on macro-invertebrate abundance in adjacent arable fields

Grassy field margins are thought to be an important feature for a variety of species in arable landscapes. However, not many studies address the impact of such margins in arable landscapes on the abundance of macro-invertebrates in arable fields. We estimated the abundance of earthworms, gastropods and carabids in fields with and without a grassy margin. Additionally, fields were sampled along the edge and further in the field.From our findings we can conclude that the presence of grassy field margins in arable landscapes increases the abundance of carabids and earthworms but decreases the abundance of gastropods. These effects were mainly noticeable on the edge of the field, but appear to be occurring further in the field as well

Paying the price for the meat we eat

An increasingly gloomy picture is painted by research focusing on the environmental challenges faced by our planet. Biodiversity loss is ongoing, landscapes continue to transform, and predictions on the effects of climate change worsen. Calls have been made for urgent action to avoid pushing our planet into a new system state. One of the principal threats to biodiversity is intensive agriculture, and in particular the livestock industry, which is an important driver of greenhouse gas emissions, habitat degradation and habitat loss. Ongoing intensification of agricultural practices mean that farmland no longer provides a habitat for many species. We suggest the use of a growing policy tool, biodiversity offsetting, to tackle these challenges. Biodiversity offsetting, or ecological compensation, assesses the impacts of new development projects and seeks to avoid, minimise and otherwise compensate for the ecological impacts of these development projects. By applying biodiversity offsetting to agriculture, the impacts of progressively intensifying farming practices can be compensated to achieve conservation outcomes by using tools like environmental taxes or agri-environment schemes. Low intensity, traditional, farming systems provide a number of benefits to biodiversity and society, and we suggest that the consumer and the agriculture industry compensate for the devastating ecological impacts of intensive farming so that we can once again preserve biodiversity in our landscapes and attempt to limit global temperature rise below 2°c.</p

An uncertain future for the endemic Galliformes of the Caucasus

Impacts of climate change are already evident in ecosystems worldwide. High-latitude and altitude regions are at greatest risk because the effects of climate change are greater in these regions, and species from these areas have limited ability to track their climate envelopes. The Caucasian snowcock (Tetraogallus caucasicus) and the Caucasian grouse (Lyrurus mlokosiewiczi) are both high-altitude specialists that are endemic to a restricted range in the Caucasus mountains of Europe. Little research has been performed to determine the status of the populations or the potential impacts of climate change. We investigated how climate and land use change may impact both species in future and determined whether their life history traits may increase their vulnerability using a combined exposure and trait-based index. We compared several climate models, and in all instances, both species showed drastic range contractions although the extent of the contraction varied with each model. Traits like habitat specialism, ground nesting and incubation period meant that both species may be considered “most vulnerable” in the exposure and trait-based index. Given that both species already occur near the maximum elevations of the Caucasus, and that they lack any dispersal capabilities due to the isolation from alternative mountainous areas, research efforts need to be prioritized to improve our knowledge about their population status, to monitor future trends and to begin developing species action plans that conserve these endemic and iconic species of Europe. Both species are flagship and umbrella species and may serve as indicator species, their protection may therefore benefit a whole range of other species inhabiting this vulnerable Alpine ecosystem. Especially the Caucasian grouse has a high aesthetic value and is favoured by hunters in the region. The potential demise of this species may therefore also be negative for local communities.</p

Predicted future benefits for an endemic rodent in the Irano-Turanian region

Climate change is expected to have an impact on the geographical distribution ranges of species. Endemic species and those with a restricted geographic range may be especially vulnerable. The Persian jird (Meriones persicus) is an endemic rodent inhabiting the mountainous areas of the Irano-Turanian region, where future desertification may form a threat to the species. In this study, the species distribution modelling algorithm MaxEnt was used to assess the impact of future climate change on the geographic distribution range of the Persian jird. Predictions were made under two Representative Concentration Pathways and five different climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. It was found that both bioclimatic variables and land use variables were important in determining potential suitability of the region for the species to occur. In most cases, the future predictions showed an expansion of the geographic range of the Persian jird which indicates that the species is not under immediate threat. There are however uncertainties with regards to its current range. Predictions may therefore be an over or underestimation of the total suitable area. Further research is thus needed to confirm the current geographic range of the Persian jird to be able to improve assessments of the impact of future climate change.</p