Multiple criteria decision analysis in the context of health technology assessment: a simulation exercise on metastatic colorectal cancer with multiple stakeholders in the English setting

Background: Multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has appeared as a methodology to address limitations of economic evaluation in health technology assessment (HTA), however there are limited empirical evidence from real world applications. The aim of this study is to test in practice a recently developed MCDA methodological framework known as Advance Value Framework (AVF) through a proof-of-concept case study engaging multiple stakeholders. Methods: A multi-attribute value theory methodological process was adopted involving problem structuring, model building, model assessment and model appraisal phases. A facilitated decision analysis modelling approach was used as part of a decision conference with thirteen participants. An expanded scope of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) remit acted as the study setting with the use of supplementary value concerns. Second-line biological treatments were evaluated for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients having received prior chemotherapy, including cetuximab monotherapy, panitumumab monotherapy and aflibercept in combination with FOLFIRI chemotherapy. Initially 18 criteria attributes were considered spanning four value domains relating to therapeutic impact, safety profile, innovation level and socioeconomic impact. Results: Nine criteria attributes were finally included. Cetuximab scored the highest overall weighted preference value score of 45.7 out of 100, followed by panitumumab with 42.3, and aflibercept plus FOLFIRI with 14.4. The relative weights of the two most important criteria (overall survival and Grade 4 adverse events) added up to more than the relative weight of all other criteria together (52.1%). Main methodological limitation was the lack of comparative clinical effects across treatments and challenges included the selection of “lower” and “higher” reference levels on criteria attributes, eliciting preferences across attributes where participants had less experience, and ensuring that all attributes possess the right decision theory properties. Conclusions: This first application of AVF produced transparent rankings for three mCRC treatments based on their value, by assessing an explicit set of evaluation criteria while allowing for the elicitation and construction of participants’ value preferences and their trade-offs. It proved it can aid the evaluation process and value communication of the alternative treatments for the group participants. Further research is needed to optimise its use as part of policy-making

Transcriptional regulation of topoisomerase II at confluence and pharmacological modulation of expression by bis-benzimidazole drugs

ABSTRACT Topoisomerase II␣ is a critical gene involved in DNA replication and maintenance of genomic stability. Several chemotherapeutic agents target topoisomerase II and levels of expression are an important factor in chemosensitivity. Transcriptional regulation has been demonstrated to regulate topoisomerase II␣ levels under several circumstances, including cellular confluence, heat shock, and expression of oncogenes including ras and myb. Expression of topoisomerase II␣ is regulated by cellular proliferation; transcriptional down-regulation in confluent cells is modulated through sequences within the promoter. In this study, we examined DNA-protein interactions within the topoisomerase II␣ promoter in exponential and confluent phase NIH3T3 cells. Using electrophoretic mobility shift assay and in vitro DNase I footprint experiments, the involvement of NF-Y in transcriptional regulation was established. Incubation of the DNA minor groove-binding agents Hoechst 33342 and Hoechst 33258 with nuclear extracts revealed drug binding to regions surrounding the inverted CCAAT boxes within the topoisomerase II␣ promoter and displacement of proteins binding to these elements. Addition of both Hoechst 33342 and Hoechst 33258 to NIH3T3 cells at confluence resulted in increased expression of topoisomerase II␣. In addition, MTT cytotoxicity assays in confluent cells showed an additive effect of incubation with Hoechst 33342 and the topoisomerase II␣ poison etoposide. Therefore, DNA binding drugs which block transcription factor activation of the promoter may deregulate topoisomerase II␣ and this strategy may be of value in modifying gene expression and modulating chemosensitivity

Molecular effects of Lapatinib in the treatment of HER2 overexpressing oesophago-gastric adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Lapatinib, a dual EGFR and HER2 inhibitor has shown disappointing results in clinical trials of metastatic oesophago-gastric adenocarcinomas (OGAs), and in vitro studies suggest that MET, IGFR, and HER3 confer resistance. This trial applied Lapatinib in the curative neoadjuvant setting and investigated the feasibility and utility of additional endoscopy and biopsy for assessment of resistance mechanisms ex vivo and in vivo. METHODS: Patients with HER2 overexpressing OGA were treated for 10 days with Lapatinib monotherapy, and then in combination with three cycles of Oxaliplatin and Capecitabine before surgery. Endoscopic samples were taken for molecular analysis at: baseline including for ex vivo culture +/- Lapatinib to predict in vivo response, post-Lapatinib monotherapy and at surgery. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) and proteomic analysis was performed to assess cell kinetics and signalling activity. RESULTS: The trial closed early (n=10) due to an anastomotic leak in two patients for which a causative effect of Lapatinib could not be excluded. The reduction in Phosphorylated-HER2 (P-HER2) and P-EGFR in the ex vivo-treated biopsy demonstrated good correlation with the in vivo response at day 10. Proteomic analysis pre and post-Lapatinib demonstrated target inhibition (P-ERBB2, P-EGFR, P-PI3K, P-AKT, and P-ERK) that persisted until surgery. There was also significant correlation between the activation of MET with the level of P-Erk (P=0.0005) and P-PI3K : T-PI3K (total PI3K) ratio (P=0.0037). There was no significant correlation between the activation status of IGFR and HER3 with downstream signalling molecules. CONCLUSIONS: Additional endoscopy and biopsy sampling for multiple biomarker endpoints was feasible and confirmed in vitro data that MET is likely to be a significant mechanism of Lapatinib resistance in vivo.This research was funded by the Medical Research Council [Grant SK002].This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2015.34

Liver resection surgery compared with thermal ablation in high surgical risk patients with colorectal liver metastases: the LAVA international RCT.

BACKGROUND: Although surgical resection has been considered the only curative option for colorectal liver metastases, thermal ablation has recently been suggested as an alternative curative treatment. There have been no adequately powered trials comparing surgery with thermal ablation. OBJECTIVES: Main objective - to compare the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of thermal ablation versus liver resection surgery in high surgical risk patients who would be eligible for liver resection. Pilot study objectives - to assess the feasibility of recruitment (through qualitative study), to assess the quality of ablations and liver resection surgery to determine acceptable standards for the main trial and to centrally review the reporting of computed tomography scan findings relating to ablation and outcomes and recurrence rate in both arms. DESIGN: A prospective, international (UK and the Netherlands), multicentre, open, pragmatic, parallel-group, randomised controlled non-inferiority trial with a 1-year internal pilot study. SETTING: Tertiary liver, pancreatic and gallbladder (hepatopancreatobiliary) centres in the UK and the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: Adults with a specialist multidisciplinary team diagnosis of colorectal liver metastases who are at high surgical risk because of their age, comorbidities or tumour burden and who would be suitable for liver resection or thermal ablation. INTERVENTIONS: Thermal ablation conducted as per local policy (but centres were encouraged to recruit within Cardiovascular and Interventional Radiological Society of Europe guidelines) versus surgical liver resection performed as per centre protocol. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Pilot study - patients' and clinicians' acceptability of the trial to assist in optimisation of recruitment. Primary outcome - disease-free survival at 2 years post randomisation. Secondary outcomes - overall survival, timing and site of recurrence, additional therapy after treatment failure, quality of life, complications, length of hospital stay, costs, trial acceptability, and disease-free survival measured from end of intervention. It was planned that 5-year survival data would be documented through record linkage. Randomisation was performed by minimisation incorporating a random element, and this was a non-blinded study. RESULTS: In the pilot study over 1 year, a total of 366 patients with colorectal liver metastases were screened and 59 were considered eligible. Only nine participants were randomised. The trial was stopped early and none of the planned statistical analyses was performed. The key issues inhibiting recruitment included fewer than anticipated patients eligible for both treatments, misconceptions about the eligibility criteria for the trial, surgeons' preference for one of the treatments ('lack of clinical equipoise' among some of the surgeons in the centre) with unconscious bias towards surgery, patients' preference for one of the treatments, and lack of dedicated research nurses for the trial. CONCLUSIONS: Recruitment feasibility was not demonstrated during the pilot stage of the trial; therefore, the trial closed early. In future, comparisons involving two very different treatments may benefit from an initial feasibility study or a longer period of internal pilot study to resolve these difficulties. Sufficient time should be allowed to set up arrangements through National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Research Networks. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN52040363. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 21. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

PANTHER: AZD8931, inhibitor of EGFR, ERBB2 and ERBB3 signalling, combined with FOLFIRI: a Phase I/II study to determine the importance of schedule and activity in colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND: Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) is a therapeutic target to which HER2/HER3 activation may contribute resistance. This Phase I/II study examined the toxicity and efficacy of high-dose pulsed AZD8931, an EGFR/HER2/HER3 inhibitor, combined with chemotherapy, in metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS: Treatment-naive patients received 4-day pulses of AZD8931 with irinotecan/5-FU (FOLFIRI) in a Phase I/II single-arm trial. Primary endpoint for Phase I was dose limiting toxicity (DLT); for Phase II best overall response. Samples were analysed for pharmacokinetics, EGFR dimers in circulating exosomes and Comet assay quantitating DNA damage. RESULTS: Eighteen patients received FOLFIRI and AZD8931. At 160 mg bd, 1 patient experienced G3 DLT; 160 mg bd was used for cohort expansion. No grade 5 adverse events (AE) reported. Seven (39%) and 1 (6%) patients experienced grade 3 and grade 4 AEs, respectively. Of 12 patients receiving 160 mg bd, best overall response rate was 25%, median PFS and OS were 8.7 and 21.2 months, respectively. A reduction in circulating HER2/3 dimer in the two responding patients after 12 weeks treatment was observed. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of pulsed high-dose AZD8931 with FOLFIRI has acceptable toxicity. Further studies of TKI sequencing may establish a role for pulsed use of such agents rather than continuous exposure. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT01862003

HER2-HER3 heterodimer quantification by FRET-FILM and patient subclass analysis of the COIN colorectal trial

BACKGROUND: The phase 3 MRC COIN trial showed no statistically significant benefit from adding the EGFR-target cetuximab to oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy in first-line treatment of advanced colorectal cancer. This study exploits additional information on HER2-HER3 dimerization to achieve patient stratification and reveal previously hidden subgroups of patients who had differing disease progression and treatment response. METHODS: HER2-HER3 dimerization was quantified by 'FLIM Histology' in primary tumor samples from 550 COIN trial patients receiving oxaliplatin and fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy +/-cetuximab. Bayesian latent class analysis (LCA) and covariate reduction was performed to analyze the effects of HER2-HER3 dimer, RAS mutation and cetuximab on progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: LCA on a cohort of 398 patients revealed two patient subclasses with differing prognoses (median OS: 1624 days [95%CI=1466-1816] vs 461 [95%CI=431-504]): Class 1 (15.6%) showed a benefit from cetuximab in OS (HR = 0.43 [95%CI=0.25-0.76]; p = 0.004). Class 2 showed an association of increased HER2-HER3 with better OS (HR = 0.64 [95%CI=0.44-0.94]; p = 0.02). A class prediction signature was formed and tested on an independent validation cohort (N = 152) validating the prognostic utility of the dimer assay. Similar subclasses were also discovered in full trial dataset (N = 1,630) based on 10 baseline clinicopathological and genetic covariates. CONCLUSIONS: Our work suggests that the combined use of HER dimer imaging and conventional mutation analyses will be able to identify a small subclass of patients (>10%) who will have better prognosis following chemotherapy. A larger prospective cohort will be required to confirm its utility in predicting the outcome of anti-EGFR treatment

T cell-inflamed gene expression profile and PD-L1 expression and pembrolizumab efficacy in advanced esophageal cancer

Aim: Investigate the relationship between response to pembrolizumab and expression of the 18-gene T cell-inflamed gene expression profile (TcellinfGEP) or PD-L1 combined positive score (CPS) in esophageal cancer. Materials & methods: This analysis included heavily pretreated patients with advanced/metastatic esophageal/gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma or squamous cell carcinoma who received pembrolizumab in the single-arm, phase II study KEYNOTE-180. PD-L1 CPS was evaluated with PD-L1 IHC 22C3 pharmDx. Results: In patients with squamous cell carcinoma, trends toward enrichment for responders were observed for patients with PD-L1 CPS ≥10 tumors. In patients with adenocarcinoma, a trend was observed for TcellinfGEP but not for PD-L1. Conclusion: TcellinfGEP and PD-L1 CPS may enrich for responders to pembrolizumab in patients with esophageal cancer. Clinical Trial Registration: NCT02559687 (ClinicalTrials.gov

Critical research gaps and recommendations to inform research prioritisation for more effective prevention and improved outcomes in colorectal cancer

OBJECTIVE: Colorectal cancer (CRC) leads to significant morbidity/mortality worldwide. Defining critical research gaps (RG), their prioritisation and resolution, could improve patient outcomes.DESIGN: RG analysis was conducted by a multidisciplinary panel of patients, clinicians and researchers (n=71). Eight working groups (WG) were constituted: discovery science; risk; prevention; early diagnosis and screening; pathology; curative treatment; stage IV disease; and living with and beyond CRC. A series of discussions led to development of draft papers by each WG, which were evaluated by a 20-strong patient panel. A final list of RGs and research recommendations (RR) was endorsed by all participants.RESULTS: Fifteen critical RGs are summarised below: RG1: Lack of realistic models that recapitulate tumour/tumour micro/macroenvironment; RG2: Insufficient evidence on precise contributions of genetic/environmental/lifestyle factors to CRC risk; RG3: Pressing need for prevention trials; RG4: Lack of integration of different prevention approaches; RG5: Lack of optimal strategies for CRC screening; RG6: Lack of effective triage systems for invasive investigations; RG7: Imprecise pathological assessment of CRC; RG8: Lack of qualified personnel in genomics, data sciences and digital pathology; RG9: Inadequate assessment/communication of risk, benefit and uncertainty of treatment choices; RG10: Need for novel technologies/interventions to improve curative outcomes; RG11: Lack of approaches that recognise molecular interplay between metastasising tumours and their microenvironment; RG12: Lack of reliable biomarkers to guide stage IV treatment; RG13: Need to increase understanding of health related quality of life (HRQOL) and promote residual symptom resolution; RG14: Lack of coordination of CRC research/funding; RG15: Lack of effective communication between relevant stakeholders.CONCLUSION: Prioritising research activity and funding could have a significant impact on reducing CRC disease burden over the next 5 years.</p