Opportunity Cost Bidding by Wind Generators in Forward Markets: Analytical Results

Wind generation must trade in forward electricity markets based on imperfect forecasts of its output and real-time prices. When the real-time price differs for generators that are short and long, the optimal forward strategy must be based on the opportunity costs of charges and payments in real-time rather than a central estimate of wind output. We present analytical results for wind's optimal forward strategy. In the risk-neutral case, the optimal strategy is determined by the distribution of real-time available wind capacity, and the expected real-time prices conditioned on the forward price and wind out-turn; our approach is simpler and more computationally efficient than formulations requiring specification of full joint distributions or a large set of scenarios. Informative closed-form examples are derived for particular specifications of the wind-price dependence structure. In the usual case of uncertain forward prices, the optimal bidding strategy generally consists of a bid curve for wind power, rather than a fixed quantity bid. A discussion of the risk-averse problem is also provided. An analytical result is available for aversion to production volume risk; however, we doubt whether wind owners should be risk-averse with respect to the income from a single settlement period, given the large number of such periods in a year

Rapid conformational analysis of semi-flexible liquid crystals.

We present an approach for rapid conformational analysis of semi-flexible liquid crystals. We use a simple graphical user interface (GUI) tool that leverages rules-based methods for efficient generation of bend-angle distributions, offering a significant improvement over traditional single-conformer analysis. Our methods demonstrated proficiency in approximating molecular shapes comparable to those obtained from molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, albeit with notable deviations in the under sampling of hairpin conformations and oversampling of extended configurations. Re-evaluation of existing data revealed an apparent weak correlation between NTB transition temperatures and bend angles, underscoring the complexity of molecular shapes beyond mere geometry. Furthermore, we integrated this conformational analysis into a pipeline of algorithmic molecular design, utilising a fragment-based genetic algorithm to generate novel cyanobiphenyl-containing materials. This integration opens new avenues for the exploration of liquid crystalline materials, particularly in systems where systematic conformer searches are impractical, such as large oligomeric systems. Our findings highlight the potential and growing importance of computational approaches in accelerating the design and synthesis of next-generation liquid crystalline materials

From breathless to failure:symptom onset and diagnostic meaning in patients with heart failure - a qualitative study

Objectives: To explore 2 key points in the heart failure diagnostic pathway-symptom onset and diagnostic meaning-from the patient perspective. Design: Qualitative interview study. Setting: Participants were recruited from a secondary care clinic in central England following referral from primary care. Participants: Over age 55 years with a recent (<1 year) diagnosis of heart failure confirmed by a cardiologist following initial presentation to primary care. Methods: Semistructured interviews were carried out with 16 participants (11 men and 5 women, median age 78.5 years) in their own homes. Data were audiorecorded and transcribed. Participants were asked to describe their diagnostic journey from when they first noticed something wrong up to and including the point of diagnosis. Data were analysed using the framework method. Results: Participants initially normalised symptoms and only sought medical help when daily activities were affected. Failure to realise that anything was wrong led to a delay in help-seeking. Participants' understanding of the term 'heart failure' was variable and 1 participant did not know he had the condition. The term itself caused great anxiety initially but participants learnt to cope with and accept their diagnosis over time. Conclusions: Greater public awareness of symptoms and adequate explanation of 'heart failure' as a diagnostic label, or reconsideration of its use, are potential areas of service improvement

Mineral resource information in support of national, regional and local planning : Devon (comprising Devon, Plymouth, Torbay, Dartmoor National Park and part of Exmoor National Park)

This report is one of a series prepared by the British Geological Survey for various administrative areas in England for the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister’s research project Mineral Resource Information in Support of National, Regional and Local Planning. The accompanying maps relate to the county of Devon and delineates the mineral resources of current, or potential, economic interest in the area and the sites where minerals are or have been worked. It also relates these to national planning designations, which may represent constraints on the extraction of minerals. Three major elements of information are presented: • the geological distribution and importance of mineral resources; • the extent of mineral planning permissions and the location of current mineral workings; and • the extent of selected, nationally-designated planning constraints. This wide range of information, much of which is scattered and not always available in a consistent and convenient form, is presented on two digitally-generated summary map on the scale of 1:100 000. This scale is convenient for the overall display of the data and allows for a legible topographic base on which to depict the information. However, all the data are held digitally at larger scales using a Geographical Information System (GIS), which allows easy revision, updating and customisation of the information together with its possible integration with other datasets. The information will form part of a Summary of the Mineral Resources of the South West Region. The purpose of the work is to assist all interested parties involved in the preparation and review of development plans, both in relation to the extraction of minerals and the protection of mineral resources from sterilisation. It provides a knowledge base, in a consistent format, on the nature and extent of mineral resources and the environmental constraints, which may affect their extraction. An important objective is to provide baseline data for the long term. The results may also provide a starting point for discussion on specific planning proposals for minerals extraction or on proposals, which may sterilise resources. It is anticipated that the map and report will also provide valuable background data for a much wider audience, including the different sectors of the minerals industry, other agencies and authorities (e.g. The Planning Inspectorate Agency, the Environment Agency, The Countryside Agency and English Nature), environmental interests and the general public. Basic mineral resource information is essential to support mineral exploration and development activities, for resource management and land-use planning, and to establish baseline data for environmental impact studies and environmental guidelines. It also enables a more sustainable pattern and standard of development to be achieved by valuing mineral resources as national assets. The mineral resources covered are sand and gravel, crushed rock aggregate, brick clay, kaolin, ball clay, building stones, hydrocarbons and metalliferous mineralisation

Reaching key populations through key venues: Insights from the Jamaica HIV prevention Program

Introduction HIV prevention strategies often include outreach to female sex workers at social venues identified as places where people meet new sexual partners. Patrons and staff at these venues may include female sex workers, their clients, as well as others who have high rates of new sexual partnerships. Few studies have compared HIV/STI among venue-based and general populations, across types of venues, or by sub-group of the venue population. Program planners often assume that the prevalence of infection is highest among female sex workers and considerably lower among other people at these venues, but there are few empiric studies assessing the prevalence of infection by sex worker status and type of venue. Methods In 2011, we used the PLACE method to identify public venues where people meet new sexual partners across Jamaica. The study team visited all venues with reported sex work as well as a 10% random sample of other venues and subsequently interviewed and tested a probability sample of 991 venue patrons and workers for HIV and other STI. Results Community informants identified 1207 venues. All venues where sex work was reported (735 venues) and a random sample of the remainder (134 of 472) were selected for onsite visits. Of these, 585 were found and operational. At a stratified random sample of venues, survey teams interviewed and tested 717 women and 274 men. 394 women reported recent sex work and 211 of these women reported soliciting clients on the street. Women exchanging sex for money were more likely to be infected with HIV (5.4% vs 1.0%; OR = 5.6, 95% CI = 1.8,17.3) or syphilis (11.7% vs. 5.8%, OR = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.7,4,0) than other women, but not significantly more likely to be infected with gonorrhea (8.4% vs 7.8%; OR = 1.1,95% CI = 0.6,1.9), chlamydia (16.2% vs 21.6%;OR = 0.7,95% CI = 0.5,1.0) or trichomoniasis (23.0% vs 17.0%, OR = 1.5,95% CI = 0.9,2.2). Women at venues were more likely to report sex work and multiple partners than women interviewed in a 2008 national population-based household survey commissioned by the Ministry of Health. Conclusions In Jamaica, although the highest HIV prevalence was among street-based sex workers, the risk of HIV and STI extends to men and women at high risk venues, even those who do not self-identify as sex workers. Findings confirm the appropriateness of outreach to all men and women at these venues

Patient use of blood pressure self-screening facilities in general practice waiting rooms: a qualitative study in the UK

Background Blood pressure (BP) self-screening, whereby members of the public have access to BP monitoring equipment outside of healthcare consultations, may increase the detection and treatment of hypertension. Currently in the UK such opportunities are largely confined to GP waiting rooms.Aim To investigate the reasons why people do or do not use BP self-screening facilities.Design and setting A cross-sectional, qualitative study in Oxfordshire, UK.Method Semi-structured interviews with members of the general public recruited using posters in GP surgeries and community locations were recorded, transcribed, and coded thematically.Results Of the 30 interviewees, 20% were hypertensive and almost half had self-screened. Those with no history of elevated readings had limited concern over their BP: self-screening filled the time waiting for their appointment or was done to help their doctor. Patients with hypertension self-screened to avoid the feelings they associated with ‘white coat syndrome’ and to introduce more control into the measurement process. Barriers to self-screening included a lack of awareness, uncertainty about technique, and worries over measuring BP in a public place. An unanticipated finding was that several interviewees preferred monitoring their BP in the waiting room than at home.Conclusion BP self-screening appeared acceptable to service users. Further promotion and education could increase awareness among non-users of the need for BP screening, the existence of self-screening facilities, and its ease of use. Waiting room monitors could provide an alternative for patients with hypertension who are unwilling or unable to monitor at home

Exponential distribution of long heart beat intervals during atrial fibrillation and their relevance for white noise behaviour in power spectrum

The statistical properties of heart beat intervals of 130 long-term surface electrocardiogram recordings during atrial fibrillation (AF) are investigated. We find that the distribution of interbeat intervals exhibits a characteristic exponential tail, which is absent during sinus rhythm, as tested in a corresponding control study with 72 healthy persons. The rate of the exponential decay lies in the range 3-12 Hz and shows diurnal variations. It equals, up to statistical uncertainties, the level of the previously uncovered white noise part in the power spectrum, which is also characteristic for AF. The overall statistical features can be described by decomposing the intervals into two statistically independent times, where the first one is associated with a correlated process with 1/f noise characteristics, while the second one belongs to an uncorrelated process and is responsible for the exponential tail. It is suggested to use the rate of the exponential decay as a further parameter for a better classification of AF and for the medical diagnosis. The relevance of the findings with respect to a general understanding of AF is pointed out

Are the magnetic fields of millisecond pulsars ~ 10^8 G?

It is generally assumed that the magnetic fields of millisecond pulsars (MSPs) are $\sim 10^{8}$G. We argue that this may not be true and the fields may be appreciably greater. We present six evidences for this: (1) The $\sim 10^{8}$ G field estimate is based on magnetic dipole emission losses which is shown to be questionable; (2) The MSPs in low mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs) are claimed to have $< 10^{11}$ G on the basis of a Rayleygh-Taylor instability accretion argument. We show that the accretion argument is questionable and the upper limit $10^{11}$ G may be much higher; (3) Low magnetic field neutron stars have difficulty being produced in LMXBs; (4) MSPs may still be accreting indicating a much higher magnetic field; (5) The data that predict $\sim 10^{8}$ G for MSPs also predict ages on the order of, and greater than, ten billion years, which is much greater than normal pulsars. If the predicted ages are wrong, most likely the predicted $\sim 10^{8}$ G fields of MSPs are wrong; (6) When magnetic fields are measured directly with cyclotron lines in X-ray binaries, fields $\gg 10^{8}$ G are indicated. Other scenarios should be investigated. One such scenario is the following. Over 85% of MSPs are confirmed members of a binary. It is possible that all MSPs are in large separation binaries having magnetic fields $> 10^{8}$ G with their magnetic dipole emission being balanced by low level accretion from their companions.Comment: 16 pages, accept for publication in Astrophysics and Space Scienc

Spontaneous Symmetry Breaking in Polar Fluids

Spontaneous symmetry breaking and emergent polar order are each of fundamental importance to a range of scientific disciplines, as well as generating rich phase behaviour in liquid crystals (LCs). Here, we show the union of these phenomena to lead to two previously undiscovered polar liquid states of matter. Both phases have a lamellar structure with an inherent polar ordering of their constituent molecules. The first of these phases is characterised by polar order and a local tilted structure; the tilt direction processes about a helix orthogonal to the layer normal, the period of which is such that we observe selective reflection of light. The second new phase type is anti-ferroelectric, with the constituent molecules aligning orthogonally to the layer normal. This has led us to term the phases the SmCHP and SmAAF phases, respectively. Further to this, we obtain room temperature ferroelectric nematic (NF) and SmCHP phases via binary mixture formulation of the novel materials described here with a standard NF compound (DIO), with the resultant materials having melting points (and/or glass transitions) which are significantly below ambient temperature. The new soft matter phase types discovered herein can be considered as electrical analogues of topological structures of magnetic spins in hard matter