Reported Earnings and Analyst Forecasts as Competing Sources of Information: A New Approach

We study information flows between earnings and forecasts, using suitably adapted Granger causality tests. This approach complements existing cross-sectional studies by abstracting from stock market reactions to information, and focussing on dynamic interactions between information flows instead. We find bi-directional causality in timeseries of analyst earnings forecasts and reported earnings, supporting our expectation that forecasts contribute to information that is reflected in future reports. Further, our evidence of feedback suggests that past reports and forecasts are both reflected in future forecasts, implying that the information in reports has inherent value, and that forecasts do not fully substitute for reports.

On the expressiveness and monitoring of metric temporal logic

It is known that Metric Temporal Logic (MTL) is strictly less expressive than the Monadic First-Order Logic of Order and Metric (FO[<, +1]) when interpreted over timed words; this remains true even when the time domain is bounded a priori. In this work, we present an extension of MTL with the same expressive power as FO[<, +1] over bounded timed words (and also, trivially, over time-bounded signals). We then show that expressive completeness also holds in the general (time-unbounded) case if we allow the use of rational constants q ∈ Q in formulas. This extended version of MTL therefore yields a definitive real-time analogue of Kamp’s theorem. As an application, we propose a trace-length independent monitoring procedure for our extension of MTL, the first such procedure in a dense real-time setting

Forecasting: Adopting the Methodology of Support Vector Machines to Nursing Research

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/71569/1/j.1741-6787.2006.00062.x.pd

The Holliday Junction in an Inverted Repeat DNA Sequence: Sequence Effects on the Structure of Four-way Junctions

Holliday junctions are important structural intermediates in recombination, viral integration, and DNA repair. We present here the single-crystal structure of the inverted repeat sequence d(CCGGTACCGG) as a Holliday junction at the nominal resolution of 2.1 Å. Unlike the previous crystal structures, this DNA junction has B-DNA arms with all standard Watson–Crick base pairs; it therefore represents the intermediate proposed by Holliday as being involved in homologous recombination. The junction is in the stacked-X conformation, with two interconnected duplexes formed by coaxially stacked arms, and is crossed at an angle of 41.4° as a right-handed X. A sequence comparison with previous B-DNA and junction crystal structures shows that an ACC trinucleotide forms the core of a stable junction in this system. The 3*-CzG base pair of this ACC core forms direct and water-mediated hydrogen bonds to the phosphates at the crossover strands. Interactions within this core define the conformation of the Holliday junction, including the angle relating the stacked duplexes and how the base pairs are stacked in the stable form of the junction

Rapid Noninvasive Skin Monitoring by Surface Mass Recording and Data Learning.

Skin problems are often overlooked due to a lack of robust and patient-friendly monitoring tools. Herein, we report a rapid, noninvasive, and high-throughput analytical chemical methodology, aiming at real-time monitoring of skin conditions and early detection of skin disorders. Within this methodology, adhesive sampling and laser desorption ionization mass spectrometry are coordinated to record skin surface molecular mass in minutes. Automated result interpretation is achieved by data learning, using similarity scoring and machine learning algorithms. Feasibility of the methodology has been demonstrated after testing a total of 117 healthy, benign-disordered, or malignant-disordered skins. Remarkably, skin malignancy, using melanoma as a proof of concept, was detected with 100% accuracy already at early stages when the lesions were submillimeter-sized, far beyond the detection limit of most existing noninvasive diagnosis tools. Moreover, the malignancy development over time has also been monitored successfully, showing the potential to predict skin disorder progression. Capable of detecting skin alterations at the molecular level in a nonsurgical and time-saving manner, this analytical chemistry platform is promising to build personalized skin care

Ionizing radiation absorption of vascular surgeons during endovascular procedures

ObjectiveEndovascular procedures have become an integral part of a vascular surgeon’s practice. The exposure of surgeons to ionizing radiation and other safety issues have not been well studied. We investigated the radiation exposure of a team of vascular surgeons in an active endovascular unit and compared yearly dosages absorbed by various body parts among different surgeons. Patients’ radiation exposure was also assessed.MethodsThe radiation absorption of a team of vascular surgeons was prospectively monitored in a 12-month period. During each endovascular procedure, the effective body, eye, and hand radiation doses of all participating surgeons were measured by mini-thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLD) attached at the chest level under a lead apron, at the forehead at eye level, and at the hand. The type of procedure, fluoroscopy machine, fluoroscopy time, and personal and operating theatre radiation protection devices used in each procedure were also recorded. One TLD was attached to the patient’s body near the operative site to measure the patient’s dose. The yearly effective body, eye, and hand dose were compared with the safety limits of radiation for occupational exposure recommended by the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP). The radiation absorption of various body parts per minute of fluoroscopy was compared among different surgeons.ResultsA total of 149 consecutive endovascular procedures were performed, including 30 endovascular aortic repairs (EVAR), 58 arteriograms with and without embolization (AGM), and 61 percutaneous transluminal angioplasty and stent (PTA/S) procedures. The cumulative fluoroscopy time was 1132 minutes. The median yearly effective body, eye, and hand dose for the surgeons were 0.20 mSv (range, 0.13 to 0.27 mSv), 0.19 mSv (range, 0.10 to 0.33 mSv) and 0.99 mSv (0.29 to 1.84 mSv) respectively, which were well below the safety limits of the ICRP. The mean body, eye, and hand dose of the chief surgeon per procedure were highest for EVAR. A significant discrepancy was observed for the average hand dose per minute of fluoroscopy among different surgeons. The mean radiation absorption of patients who underwent EVAR, AGM, and PTA/S was 12.7 mSv, 13.6 mSv, and 3.4 mSv, respectively.ConclusionWith current radiation protection practice, the radiation absorbed by vascular surgeons with a high endovascular workload did not exceed the safety limits recommended by ICRP. Variations in practice, however, can result in significant discrepancy of radiation absorption between surgeons

Spontaneous decay in the presence of dispersing and absorbing bodies: general theory and application to a spherical cavity

A formalism for studying spontaneous decay of an excited two-level atom in the presence of dispersing and absorbing dielectric bodies is developed. An integral equation, which is suitable for numerical solution, is derived for the atomic upper-state-probability amplitude. The emission pattern and the power spectrum of the emitted light are expressed in terms of the Green tensor of the dielectric-matter formation including absorption and dispersion. The theory is applied to the spontaneous decay of an excited atom at the center of a three-layered spherical cavity, with the cavity wall being modeled by a band-gap dielectric of Lorentz type. Both weak coupling and strong coupling are studied, the latter with special emphasis on the cases where the atomic transition is (i) in the normal-dispersion zone near the medium resonance and (ii) in the anomalous-dispersion zone associated with the band gap. In a single-resonance approximation, conditions of the appearance of Rabi oscillations and closed solutions to the evolution of the atomic state population are derived, which are in good agreement with the exact numerical results.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, typos fixed, 1 figure adde

The predictive accuracy of PREDICT: A personalized decision-making tool for southeast Asian women with breast cancer

10.1097/MD.0000000000000593Medicine (United States)948e59

Selectivity and functional diversity in arbuscular mycorrhizas of co-occurring fungi and plants from a temperate deciduous woodland

1 The arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi colonizing plants at a woodland site in North Yorkshire (UK) have been characterized from the roots of five plant species (Rubus fruticosus agg. L., Epilobium angustifolium L., Acer pseudoplatanus L., Ajuga reptans L. and Glechoma hederacea L.), and identified using small-subunit rRNA (SSUrRNA) gene amplification and sequencing. 2 Interactions between five plant species from the site and four co-occurring glomalean fungi were investigated in artificial one-to-one AM symbioses. Three of the fungi were isolated from the site; the fourth was a culture genetically similar to a taxon found at the site. Phosphorus uptake and growth responses were compared with non-mycorrhizal controls. 3 Individual fungi colonized each plant with different spatial distribution and intensity. Some did not colonize at all, indicating incompatibility under the conditions used in the experiments. 4 Glomus hoi consistently occupied a large proportion of root systems and outperformed the other fungi, improving P uptake and enhancing the growth of four out of the five plant species. Only G. hoi colonized and increased P uptake in Acer pseudoplatanus, the host plant with which it associates almost exclusively under field conditions. Colonization of all plant species by Scutellospora dipurpurescens was sparse, and beneficial to only one of the host plants (Teucrium scorodonia). Archaeospora trappei and Glomus sp. UY1225 had variable effects on the host plants, conferring a range of P uptake and growth benefits on Lysimachia nummularia and T. scorodonia, increasing P uptake whilst not affecting biomass in Ajuga reptans and Glechoma hederacea, and failing to form mycorrhizas with A. pseudoplatanus. 5 These experimental mycorrhizas show that root colonization, symbiont compatibility and plant performance vary with each fungus-plant combination, even when the plants and fungi naturally co-exist. 6 We provide evidence of physical and functional selectivity in AM. The small number of described AM fungal species (154) has been ascribed to their supposed lack of host specificity, but if the selectivity we have observed is the general rule, then we may predict that many more, probably hard-to-culture glomalean species await discovery, or that members of species as currently perceived may be physiologically or functionally distinct

Finding Faint Intermediate-mass Black Holes in the Radio Band

We discuss the prospects for detecting faint intermediate-mass black holes, such as those predicted to exist in the cores of globular clusters and dwarf spheroidal galaxies. We briefly summarize the difficulties of stellar dynamical searches, then show that recently discovered relations between black hole mass, X-ray luminosity and radio luminosity imply that in most cases, these black holes should be more easily detected in the radio than in the X-rays. Finally, we show upper limits from some radio observations of globular clusters, and discuss the possibility that the radio source in the core of the Ursa Minor dwarf spheroidal galaxy might be a $\sim 10,000-100,000 M_\odot$ black hole.Comment: 10 pages, no figures, to appear in From X-ray Binaries to Quasars: Black Hole Accretion on All Mass Scales, ed. T. J. Maccarone, R. P. Fender, and L. C. Ho (Dordrecht: Kluwer