Collection and analysis of radar rainfall and satellite data for the Darwin TRMM experiment

The following subject areas are covered: video cloud camera (purpose, design, operation, data); special observing periods (SOP-2, SOP 2.5 - an extension of SOP-2); Garand algorithm; and warm rain

Slippery Slopes and Other Consequences

The aim of this paper is to illustrate where previous attempts at the characterisation of Slippery Slope Arguments (SSAs) have gone wrong, and to provide an analysis which better captures their true nature. The first part describes Walton’s [10] arguments in support of his views on SSAs and also considers the characterisations put forward by other researchers. All of these are found wanting due to their failure to capture the essence of the slippery slope and their inability to distinguish SSAs from other consequentialist forms of argument. The second part puts forward a clearer analysis of what is special about SSAs and proposes an argumentation scheme which allows them to be easily distinguished from other arguments from consequences

The Bold and the Beautiful: How Aspects of Personality Affect Foreign Language Pronunciation

In the main study, a group of Polish learners of English completed a number of mimicry tasks in three languages: Italian, Dutch and Chinese, as well as a narration task in English. Mimicry performance and English pronunciation were then assessed by native speakers and compared. Participants also completed a questionnaire concerning their feelings about the languages they were to mimic and a second questionnaire designed to detect affective factors such as language learning anxiety, as well as attitudes towards the pronunciation of Polish and English. The pilot study suggested that the perceived attractiveness of the foreign language to be mimicked did not affect the performance of most participants, and that mimicry skill was fairly constant across languages. However, those who were particularly concerned about their personal appearance showed greater fluctuation in their ability to mimic and their performance appeared to be influenced by their attitude towards the language. This is referred to by the author as the Cecily effect. That study also confirmed the results of my previous experimental work showing that mimicry skill is correlated to some degree with English language pronunciation and that both pronunciation and mimicry are negatively affected by high levels of anxiety. The main study sets out to investigate whether or not these conclusions hold true for a larger sample population and also seeks to determine the effect of confidence and willingness to take risks on scores for both foreign language pronunciation and mimicry exercises

Atmospheric blocking and mean biases in climate models

Models often underestimate blocking in the Atlantic and Pacific basins and this can lead to errors in both weather and climate predictions. Horizontal resolution is often cited as the main culprit for blocking errors due to poorly resolved small-scale variability, the upscale effects of which help to maintain blocks. Although these processes are important for blocking, the authors show that much of the blocking error diagnosed using common methods of analysis and current climate models is directly attributable to the climatological bias of the model. This explains a large proportion of diagnosed blocking error in models used in the recent Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change report. Furthermore, greatly improved statistics are obtained by diagnosing blocking using climate model data corrected to account for mean model biases. To the extent that mean biases may be corrected in low-resolution models, this suggests that such models may be able to generate greatly improved levels of atmospheric blocking

Application of lightning data to satellite-based rainfall estimation

Information on lightning may improve rain estimates made from infrared images of a geostationary satellite. We address this proposition through a case from the Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment (COHMEX). During the afternoon and evening of 13 July 1986 waves of showers and thunderstorms developed over and near the lower Tennessee River Valley. For the shower and thunderstorm region within 200 km of the National Weather Service radar at Nashville, Tennessee, we measure cold-cloud area in a sequence of GOES infrared images covering all but the end of the shower and thunderstorm period. From observations of the NASA/Marshall direction-finding network in this small domain, we also count cloud-to-ground lightning flashes and, from scans of the Nashville radar, we calculate volume rain flux. Using a modified version of the Williams and Houze scheme, over an area within roughly 240 km of the radar (the large domain), we identify and track cold cloud systems. For these systems, over the large domain, we measure area and count flashes; over the small domain, we calculate volume rain flux. For a temperature threshold of 235K, peak cloud area over the small domain lags both peak rain flux and peak flash count by about four hours. At a threshold of 226K, the lag is about two hours. Flashes and flux are matched in phase. Over the large domain, nine storm systems occur. These range in size from 300 to 60,000 km(exp 2); in lifetime, from about 2 1/2 h to 6 h or more. Storm system area lags volume rain flux and flash count; nevertheless, it is linked with these variables. In essential respects the associations were the same when clouds were defined by a threshold of 226K. Tentatively, we conclude that flash counts complement infrared images in providing significant additional information on rain flux

Use of microwave satellite data to study variations in rainfall over the Indian Ocean

The University of Wisconsin Space Science and Engineering Center mapped rainfall over the Indian Ocean using a newly developed Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) rain-retrieval algorithm. The short-range objective was to characterize the distribution and variability of Indian Ocean rainfall on seasonal and annual scales. In the long-range, the objective is to clarify differences between land and marine regimes of monsoon rain. Researchers developed a semi-empirical algorithm for retrieving Indian Ocean rainfall. Tools for this development have come from radiative transfer and cloud liquid water models. Where possible, ground truth information from available radars was used in development and testing. SMMR rainfalls were also compared with Indian Ocean gauge rainfalls. Final Indian Ocean maps were produced for months, seasons, and years and interpreted in terms of historical analysis over the sub-continent

Learning Temporal Transformations From Time-Lapse Videos

Based on life-long observations of physical, chemical, and biologic phenomena in the natural world, humans can often easily picture in their minds what an object will look like in the future. But, what about computers? In this paper, we learn computational models of object transformations from time-lapse videos. In particular, we explore the use of generative models to create depictions of objects at future times. These models explore several different prediction tasks: generating a future state given a single depiction of an object, generating a future state given two depictions of an object at different times, and generating future states recursively in a recurrent framework. We provide both qualitative and quantitative evaluations of the generated results, and also conduct a human evaluation to compare variations of our models.Comment: ECCV201

Language and Argument: a Review of the Field

This paper has a dual purpose: it both seeks to introduce the other works in this issue by illustrating how they are related to the field of argumentation as a whole, and to make clear the tremendous range of research currently being carried out by argumentation theorists which is concerned with the interaction and inter-reliance of language and argument. After a brief introduction to the development of the field of argumentation, as many as eight language-based approaches to the study of argument are identified, taking as their perspective: rhetoric, argument structure, argument as act, discourse analysis, corpus methods, emotive argument, and narrative argument. The conclusion makes it clear that these branches of study are all themselves interconnected and that it is the fusion of methodologies and theory from linguistics and the philosophical study of argument which lends this area of research its dynamism

TRMM-related research: Tropical rainfall and energy analysis experiment

The overall science objective of the participation in TRMM is the determination of daily rainfall and latent heating in the tropical atmosphere using TRMM and complementary spacecraft observations. The major focus these first three years has been to extend, in space and time, the TRMM satellite observations of rainfall. Observations from TRMM active and passive microwave radiometers will provide the fundamental observations for understanding the hydrological cycle of the tropics. Due to the orbit of the TRMM satellite and the extreme variability of convective rain systems, the TRMM observations provide rainfall estimates representative of a one month period. Monthly mean rainfall rates provide valuable information; however, this time scale limitation neglects the great value of the data towards a better understanding of the physics of tropical convection. Many tropical periodicities will not be characterized by these monthly averages, e.g. diurnal cycles, the 4-6 day easterly waves, and the 30 to 60 day cycle. In the spatial domain, due to its orbit, the TRMM satellite will over-fly many convective systems only once. Indeed, some precipitating systems will not be sampled at all. Observations from geostationary satellites can be used to extend the TRMM observations to smaller time and space scales. Although geostationary satellites cannot probe the interiors of precipitating systems, they do observe their life cycles. To acquire information on cloud water content and rain rate, it is proposed to combine geostationary and other satellite observations with the TRMM satellite measurements

A Comparative Study of Political Communication in Televised Pre-Election Debates in Poland and the United States of America

This paper combines quantitative and qualitative methodologies to study the persuasive strategies employed by candidates taking part in televised pre-election debates in Poland and the United States between 1995 and 2016. First, the authors identify the key strategies and calculate the frequency with which they are used by individual candidates. This allows for numerical comparisons between politicians in the two polities, as well as between winners and losers, and candidates of the right and the left politically. These statistical results led the authors to look more closely at the individual styles of two contrasting debaters. We conclude that the rhetorical landscape of political communication does not differ greatly between the two countries; although the data suggest noticeable differences in the approach of political parties and between individuals