Characteristics of juvenile survivors reveal spatio-temporal differences in early life stage survival of Baltic cod

The spatio-temporal origin of surviving juvenile Baltic cod Gadus morhua was investigated by coupling age information from otolith microstructure analysis and hydrodynamic modeling, which allowed backtracking of drift routes in time and space. The suitability of hydrodynamic modeling for drift simulations of early life stages of Baltic cod up to the pelagic juvenile stage was validated by comparing model simulations with the catch distribution from a survey targeting pelagic juveniles, and mortality rates and hatch date distributions of pelagic and demersal juveniles were estimated. Hatch dates and hatch locations of juvenile survivors showed distinct patterns which did not agree well with the abundance and spatial distribution of eggs, suggesting marked spatio-temporal differences in larval survival. The good agreement of the spatio-temporal origin of survivors from this field investigation with previous modeling studies on the survival chances of early-stage larvae and with general spatio-temporal patterns of larval prey availability suggests that differences in survival are related to food availability during the early larval stage. Results are discussed in relation to the recruitment process of Baltic cod, in particular with respect to the critical period and match-mismatch hypotheses, and to possible implications for the placement of a Marine Protected Area which was established to ensure undisturbed spawning of Baltic cod

Modeling the cod larvae drift in the Bornholm Basin in summer 1994

A combined 3-D physical oceanographic model and a field sampling program was performed in July and August 1994 to investigate the potential drift of larval Baltic cod from the center of spawning effort in the Bornholm Basin, Baltic Sea. The goal of this exercise was to predict the drift trajectories of cod larvae in the Bornholm Basin, thereby aiding in the development of future sampling programs as well as the identification of processes influencing larval retention/dispersion in the Bornholm Basin. Distributions of variables (T, S and larval distribution) were obtained utilizing a three-dimensional eddy-resolving baroclinic model of the Baltic Sea based on the Bryan-Cox-Semtner code. Larval drift was simulated by the incorporation of a passive tracer into the model utilized to represent individual cod larvae. Additionally, simulated Lagrangian drift trajectories are presented. For model purposes, initial fields of temperature, salinity and cod larvae concentration for the Bornholm Basin were constructed by objective analysis using observations taken during a research survey in early July, 1994. Outside the Bornholm Basin generalized hydrographic features of the Baltic Sea were utilized with the baroclinic model forced by wind data for the whole Baltic taken from the Europa-Modell (EM) of the German weather service, Offenbach. Verification of simulations was performed by comparison with field measurements of hydrographic variables and ADCP derived current measurements taken during the surveys. In general, most of the hydrographic features observed during the second research cruise are correctly simulated, with variations mainly attributed to the prescribed initial conditions outside the Bornholm Basin. Results from larval sampling during the second cruise could not entirely confirm the modeled larval distributions due to the low numbers of larvae captured. However, the modeled results based on the agreement of the flow fields and hydrographic properties with observed features suggest that predictions of larval distributions can be made with a high degree of confidence if appropriate larval behaviours are included in the simulations