791 research outputs found
DIVA: An iterative method for building modular integrated models
Integrated modelling of global environmental change impacts faces the challenge that knowledge from the domains of Natural and Social Science must be integrated. This is complicated by often incompatible terminology and the fact that the interactions between subsystems are usually not fully understood at the start of the project. While a modular modelling approach is necessary to address these challenges, it is not sufficient. The remaining question is how the modelled system shall be cut down into modules. While no generic answer can be given to this question, communication tools can be provided to support the process of modularisation and integration. Along those lines of thought a method for building modular integrated models was developed within the EU project DINAS-COAST and applied to construct a first model, which assesses the vulnerability of the world’s coasts to climate change and sea-level-rise. The method focuses on the development of a common language and offers domain experts an intuitive interface to code their knowledge in form of modules. However, instead of rigorously defining interfaces between the subsystems at the project’s beginning, an iterative model development process is defined and tools to facilitate communication and collaboration are provided. This flexible approach has the advantage that increased understanding about subsystem interactions, gained during the project’s lifetime, can immediately be reflected in the model
Bayesian analysis of interiors of HD 219134b, Kepler-10b, Kepler-93b, CoRoT-7b, 55 Cnc e, and HD 97658b using stellar abundance proxies
Using a generalized Bayesian inference method, we aim to explore the possible
interior structures of six selected exoplanets for which planetary mass and
radius measurements are available in addition to stellar host abundances:
HD~219134b, Kepler-10b, Kepler-93b, CoRoT-7b, 55~Cnc~e, and HD~97658b. We aim
to investigate the importance of stellar abundance proxies for the planetary
bulk composition (namely Fe/Si and Mg/Si) on prediction of planetary interiors.
We performed a full probabilistic Bayesian inference analysis to formally
account for observational and model uncertainties while obtaining confidence
regions of structural and compositional parameters of core, mantle, ice layer,
ocean, and atmosphere. We determined how sensitive our parameter predictions
depend on (1) different estimates of bulk abundance constraints and (2)
different correlations of bulk abundances between planet and host star. [...]
Although the possible ranges of interior structures are large, structural
parameters and their correlations are constrained by the sparse data. The
probability for the tested exoplanets to be Earth-like is generally very low.
Furthermore, we conclude that different estimates of planet bulk abundance
constraints mainly affect mantle composition and core size.Comment: Astronomy & Astrophysics, 597, A38 (15 pages, 9 figures
Equilibrium distributions in thermodynamical traffic gas
We derive the exact formula for thermal-equilibrium spacing distribution of
one-dimensional particle gas with repulsive potential V(r)=r^(-a) (a>0)
depending on the distance r between the neighboring particles. The calculated
distribution (for a=1) is successfully compared with the highway-traffic
clearance distributions, which provides a detailed view of changes in
microscopical structure of traffic sample depending on traffic density. In
addition to that, the observed correspondence is a strong support of studies
applying the equilibrium statistical physics to traffic modelling.Comment: 5 pages, 6 figures, changed content, added reference
Report on review of cross-sectoral impact of decisions and types of problems and contexts in which different dimensions of uncertainty play a role: An exploration of tipping points in climate policy responses
Adaptation to climate change is becoming increasingly necessary, with potentially severe climate-induced changes still ahead. Of key relevance for decision-making is the potential existence of points in time where the decision situation changes from one type to another because an impact threshold is exceeded. Such a change in the decision situation is, for instance, when the deciion shifts from being the concern of one actor or agency to multiple actors at multiple scales. We call these points adaptation crossroads. Their existence has important implications for adaptation decision support because they are where strategic and transformational adaptation decisions will have to be considered. We present three cases to explore adaptation crossroads and look at the implicatons fo scientific decision support. We draw some first conclusions, present a typology of adaptation crossoads, and lay groundwork for further inquiries into this area
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Avoiding the avoidable: Towards a European heat waves risk governance
The death toll of recent heat waves in developed countries has been remarkably high, contradicting the common assumption that high levels of economic and technological development automatically lead to lower vulnerability to weather extremes. Future climate change may further increase this vulnerability. In this article we examine some recent evidence of heat wave-related mortality and we conclude that while economic wealth and technological capacity might be a necessary condition for adequately coping with adverse climate change effects, they are not sufficient. Questions of awareness, preparedness, organizational issues, and actor networks have to be addressed in a proactive and focused manner in order to avoid future heat wave damages. We propose some practical consequences for heat wave adaptation measures by adopting a risk governance framework that can be universally applied, as it is sufficiently flexible to deal with the multi-level and often fragmented reality of existing coping measures
Avoiding the avoidable: Towards a European heat waves risk governance
The death toll of recent heat waves in developed countries has been remarkably high, contradicting the common assumption that high levels of economic and technological development automatically lead to lower vulnerability to weather extremes. Future climate change may further increase this vulnerability. In this article we examine some recent evidence of heat wave-related mortality and we conclude that while economic wealth and technological capacity might be a necessary condition for adequately coping with adverse climate change effects, they are not sufficient. Questions of awareness, preparedness, organizational issues, and actor networks have to be addressed in a proactive and focused manner in order to avoid future heat wave damages. We propose some practical consequences for heat wave adaptation measures by adopting a risk governance framework that can be universally applied, as it is sufficiently flexible to deal with the multi-level and often fragmented reality of existing coping measures
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