Equilibrium distributions in thermodynamical traffic gas

We derive the exact formula for thermal-equilibrium spacing distribution of one-dimensional particle gas with repulsive potential V(r)=r^(-a) (a>0) depending on the distance r between the neighboring particles. The calculated distribution (for a=1) is successfully compared with the highway-traffic clearance distributions, which provides a detailed view of changes in microscopical structure of traffic sample depending on traffic density. In addition to that, the observed correspondence is a strong support of studies applying the equilibrium statistical physics to traffic modelling.Comment: 5 pages, 6 figures, changed content, added reference

Regionalisation of population growth projections in coastal exposure analysis

Large-area coastal exposure and impact analysis has focussed on using sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios and has placed little emphasis on ocioeconomic scenarios, while neglecting spatial variations of population dynamics. We use the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) Framework to assess the population exposed to 1 in 100-year coastal flood events under different population scenarios, that are onsistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs); and different SLR scenarios, derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCPs); and analyse the effect of accounting for regionalised population dynamics on population exposure until 2100. In a reference approach, we use homogeneous population growth on national level. In the regionalisation approaches, we test existing spatially explicit projections that also account for urbanisation, coastal migration and urban sprawl. Our results show that projected global exposure in 2100 ranges from 100 million to 260 million, depending on the combination of SLR and population scenarios and method used for regionalising the population projections. The assessed exposure based on the regionalised approaches is higher than that derived from the reference approach by up to 60 million people (39%). Accounting for urbanisation and coastal migration leads to an increase in exposure, whereas considering urban sprawl leads to lower exposure. Differences between the reference and the regionalised approaches increase with higher SLR. The regionalised approaches show highest exposure under SSP5 over most of the twenty-first century, although total population in SP5 is the second lowest overall. All methods project the largest absolute growth in exposure for Asia and relative growth for Africa

Modern Erosion Rates and Loss of Coastal Features and Sites, Beaufort Sea Coastline, Alaska

This study presents modern erosion rate measurements based upon vertical aerial photography captured in 1955, 1979, and 2002 for a 100 km segment of the Beaufort Sea coastline. Annual erosion rates from 1955 to 2002 averaged 5.6 m a-1. However, mean erosion rates increased from 5.0 m a-1 in 1955–79 to 6.2 m a-1 in 1979–2002. Furthermore, from the first period to the second, erosion rates increased at 60% (598) of the 992 sites analyzed, decreased at 31% (307), and changed less than ± 30 cm at 9% (87). Historical observations and quantitative studies over the past 175 years allowed us to place our erosion rate measurements into a longer-term context. Several of the coastal features along this stretch of coastline received Western place names during the Dease and Simpson expedition in 1837, and the majority of those features had been lost by the early 1900s as a result of coastline erosion, suggesting that erosion has been active over at least the historical record. Incorporation of historical and modern observations also allowed us to detect the loss of both cultural and historical sites and modern infrastructure. U.S. Geological Survey topographic maps reveal a number of known cultural and historical sites, as well as sites with modern infrastructure constructed as recently as the 1950s, that had disappeared by the early 2000s as a result of coastal erosion. We were also able to identify sites that are currently being threatened by an encroaching coastline. Our modern erosion rate measurements can potentially be used to predict when a historical site or modern infrastructure will be affected if such erosion rates persist.Cette étude présente les mesures de taux d’érosion contemporains établies en fonction de photographies aériennes verticales prises en 1955, en 1979 et en 2002 sur un segment de 100 km du littoral de la mer de Beaufort. Entre 1955 et 2002, les taux d’érosion annuels ont atteint 5,6 m a-1 en moyenne. Cependant, les taux d’érosion moyens se sont accrus pour passer de 5,0 m a-1 pendant les années 1955- 1979 à 6,2 m a-1 dans les années 1979 - 2002. Par ailleurs, de la première période à la deuxième période, les taux d’érosion ont augmenté à 60 % (598) des 992 sites analysés, ont diminué dans le cas de 31 % (307) des sites, et changé de moins de ± 30 cm à 9 % (87) des sites. Les observations historiques et les études quantitatives recueillies au cours des 175 dernières années nous ont permis de placer nos mesures des taux d’érosion dans un contexte à plus long terme. Plusieurs des caractéristiques côtières le long de cette étendue du littoral ont reçu des noms d’endroits typiques de l’Ouest dans le cadre de l’expédition de Dease et Simpson en 1837, et la majorité de ces caractéristiques avaient disparu vers le début des années 1900 en raison de l’érosion côtière. Cela laisse donc entendre que l’érosion s’est à tout le moins manifestée pendant la période visée par les données historiques. Grâce à l’utilisation d’observations historiques et d’observations contemporaines, nous avons pu déceler la perte de sites culturels et historiques de même que d’infrastructures modernes. Les cartes topographiques de l’U.S. Geological Survey révèlent un certain nombre de sites culturels et historiques connus, ainsi que des sites dotés d’infrastructures modernes datant des années 1950, sites et infrastructures qui avaient disparu vers le début des années 2000 en raison de l’érosion côtière. Nous avons également été en mesure de cerner des sites qui sont présentement menacés par un littoral qui empiète sur le terrain. Nos mesures des taux d’érosion contemporains pourraient éventuellement servir à déterminer à quel moment un site historique ou une infrastructure moderne sera touché advenant que des taux d’érosion similaires persistent

Ray-based calculations of backscatter in laser fusion targets

A 1D, steady-state model for Brillouin and Raman backscatter from an inhomogeneous plasma is presented. The daughter plasma waves are treated in the strong damping limit, and have amplitudes given by the (linear) kinetic response to the ponderomotive drive. Pump depletion, inverse-bremsstrahlung damping, bremsstrahlung emission, Thomson scattering off density fluctuations, and whole-beam focusing are included. The numerical code DEPLETE, which implements this model, is described. The model is compared with traditional linear gain calculations, as well as "plane-wave" simulations with the paraxial propagation code pF3D. Comparisons with Brillouin-scattering experiments at the OMEGA Laser Facility [T. R. Boehly et al., Opt. Commun. 133, p. 495 (1997)] show that laser speckles greatly enhance the reflectivity over the DEPLETE results. An approximate upper bound on this enhancement, motivated by phase conjugation, is given by doubling the DEPLETE coupling coefficient. Analysis with DEPLETE of an ignition design for the National Ignition Facility (NIF) [J. A. Paisner, E. M. Campbell, and W. J. Hogan, Fusion Technol. 26, p. 755 (1994)], with a peak radiation temperature of 285 eV, shows encouragingly low reflectivity. Re-absorption of Raman light is seen to be significant in this design.Comment: 16 pages, 19 figure

Host Star Properties And Transit Exclusion For The HD 38529 Planetary System

The transit signature of exoplanets provides an avenue through which characterization of exoplanetary properties may be undertaken, such as studies of mean density, structure, and atmospheric composition. The Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey is a program to expand the catalog of transiting planets around bright host stars by refining the orbits of known planets discovered with the radial velocity technique. Here we present results for the HD 38529 system. We determine fundamental properties of the host star through direct interferometric measurements of the radius and through spectroscopic analysis. We provide new radial velocity measurements that are used to improve the Keplerian solution for the two known planets, and we find no evidence for a previously postulated third planet. We also present 12 years of precision robotic photometry of HD 38529 that demonstrate the inner planet does not transit and the host star exhibits cyclic variations in seasonal mean brightness with a timescale of approximately six years

Scenarios as the basis for assessment of mitigation and adaptation

The possibilities and need for adaptation and mitigation depends on uncertain future developments with respect to socio-economic factors and the climate system. Scenarios are used to explore the impacts of different strategies under uncertainty. In this chapter, some scenarios are presented that are used in the ADAM project for this purpose. One scenario explores developments with no mitigation, and thus with high temperature increase and high reliance on adaptation (leading to 4oC increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels). A second scenario explores an ambitious mitigation strategy (leading to 2oC increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels). In the latter scenario, stringent mitigation strategies effectively reduces the risks of climate change, but based on uncertainties in the climate system a temperature increase of 3oC or more cannot be excluded. The analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but even then adaptation will be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which adaptation is more cost-effective than mitigation, but mitigation can help reduce damages and the cost of adaptation. For agriculture, finally, only the scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts