Mapping regional risks from climate change for rainfed rice cultivation in India

Global warming is predicted to increase in the future, with detrimental consequences for rainfed crops that are dependent on natural rainfall (i.e. non-irrigated). Given that many crops grown under rainfed conditions support the livelihoods of low-income farmers, it is important to highlight the vulnerability of rainfed areas to climate change in order to anticipate potential risks to food security. In this paper, we focus on India, where ~ 50% of rice is grown under rainfed conditions, and we employ statistical models (climate envelope models (CEMs) and boosted regression trees (BRTs)) to map changes in climate suitability for rainfed rice cultivation at a regional level (~ 18 × 18 km cell resolution) under projected future (2050) climate change (IPCC RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, using three GCMs: BCC-CSM1.1, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and HadGEM2-ES). We quantify the occurrence of rice (whether or not rainfed rice is commonly grown, using CEMs) and rice extent (area under cultivation, using BRTs) during the summer monsoon in relation to four climate variables that affect rice growth and yield namely ratio of precipitation to evapotranspiration (PER), maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin), and total rainfall during harvesting. Our models described the occurrence and extent of rice very well (CEMs for occurrence, ensemble AUC = 0.92; BRTs for extent, Pearson's r = 0.87). PER was the most important predictor of rainfed rice occurrence, and it was positively related to rainfed rice area, but all four climate variables were important for determining the extent of rice cultivation. Our models project that 15%–40% of current rainfed rice growing areas will be at risk (i.e. decline in climate suitability or become completely unsuitable). However, our models project considerable variation across India in the impact of future climate change: eastern and northern India are the locations most at risk, but parts of central and western India may benefit from increased precipitation. Hence our CEM and BRT models agree on the locations most at risk, but there is less consensus about the degree of risk at these locations. Our results help to identify locations where livelihoods of low-income farmers and regional food security may be threatened in the next few decades by climate changes. The use of more drought-resilient rice varieties and better irrigation infrastructure in these regions may help to reduce these impacts and reduce the vulnerability of farmers dependent on rainfed cropping

FAR‐sighted conservation

Abstract Conservation targets that reference historical expectations, such as maintaining specified areas of intact ecosystems, restoring degraded ones or maintaining the historic distributions of species, may not be realistic in the context of ongoing environmental change, whereas targets that aspire to accommodate the complex realities of the human‐altered and changing world tend to be too vague to implement. Using the first three recently proposed Convention on Biological Diversity post‐2020 global biodiversity Action Targets as context, we suggest a policy framework that evaluates how we might shift from an emphasis on resisting sometimes inevitable change to the development of positive directions of change for people and biodiversity. Our Anthropocene approach builds on the fact that all ecosystems have already been shaped by interactions with people and that ongoing change is inevitable. We outline a Facilitate–Accept–Resist (FAR) framework for all levels of conservation decision‐making and actions, ranging from overall conservation strategies (planning, setting targets, monitoring change, selecting indicators) to the conservation of places (sites, ecosystems, landscapes) and species, and to the provision of ecosystem services and human well‐being. For each potential decision, the approach evaluates whether, for whom and how one might facilitate, accept or resist particular changes. We highlight the value of inclusive engagement in the process to ensure that benefits from biodiversity are equitably shared. The CBD Action targets reflect tensions between maintaining historic states of nature and the Anthropocene reality of integrating people with nature and accepting change. The challenge is to operationalize the inclusivity, integration and change elements of the targets whilst not ‘abandoning’ locations that many conservationists consider to be key places for wildlife. The FAR framework represents a way to operationalize decision‐making in the face of this tension, so that the facilitation and acceptance of positive biodiversity change is adopted at least as frequently as change is resisted

Quantifying trade-offs between butterfly abundance and movement in the management of agricultural set-asides

1. Agri-environment schemes (AES) create small areas of habitat within agricultural landscapes to support biodiversity. Here, we study butterfly flight behaviour within linear AES features and examine whether differences in resource availability affect the speed, linearity or directionality of local movements, thereby affecting their contribution to landscape connectivity. 2. We surveyed butterflies within three basic (naturally regenerating) and three wildflower-sown linear field margin strips (0.09-0.15 ha) on a farm in North Yorkshire, UK, and mapped butterfly flight paths to quantify local displacement (movement speed), efficiency (linearity, turning angles), directionality (step orientation) and behaviour (time spent flying, nectaring). 3. Butterfly species richness was similar between margin types (estimated asymptotic species richness of 21.9 [CI: 15.0-77.7] for basic margins and 14.2 [CI: 14.0-18.7] for wildflower-sown margins), but abundance was 78% higher in wildflower-sown margins. For the three most common species (meadow brown, Maniola jurtina (L.), ringlet, Aphantopus hyperantus (L.), and small white, Pieris rapae (L.); n = 233 paths), movements within both margin types were highly linear (median turning angle 45˚) and generally oriented along the length of the margin strip (median step orientation 27˚). Movements in basic margins were slightly more orientated along the length of the margin but we found no differences between margin types in speed, path linearity, turning angles or the proportion of time spent flying or nectaring. 4. We found strong channelling of movements along field margin strips regardless of management type, potentially aiding landscape connectivity. Providing field margin strips with additional foraging resources through wildflower sowing increases butterfly abundance without impeding local movement rates or efficiency.Funding provided by: Natural Environment Research CouncilCrossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000270Award Number: NE/L002450/1Full details of datasets (incl. column names) can be found in README.txt Butterfly data: butterfly_flight_paths.csv: Flight path data for butterflies extra_butterfly_sightings.csv: Additional opportunistic butterfly observations sampling_dur.csv: Sampling duration of each margin per day Plant data: quadrat_survey.csv: Flower data collected through regular quadrat sampling point_survey.csv: Vegetation data collected through regular point samplin

Exploring the potential for ‘Gene Conservation Units’ to conserve genetic diversity in wild populations

Abstract 1. Genetic diversity is important for species persistence and Gene Conservation Units (GCUs) have been implemented for forest trees to protect genetic diversity and evolutionary processes in situ. The Convention on Biological Diversity stipulates the protection of genetic diversity as an Aichi target, and so we explore the potential for GCUs to be implemented more widely. 2. Our global systematic review showed that GCUs are currently implemented primarily for plant species of economic importance (109/158 species studied), but a questionnaire sent to land managers and conservationists (60 U.K. participants) revealed strong support for fully integrating genetic information into conservation management (90% agree), and for creating GCUs for other plant and animal taxa. 3. Using four case studies of U.K. species of conservation importance which vary in genetic threat and population dynamics (two insect species, a fungus and a plant), we highlight that GCU implementation criteria need to be flexible to account for variation in effective breeding population size and geographic extent of target species. The wider uptake of GCUs would ensure that threatened genetic diversity is protected and support evolutionary processes that aid adaptation to changing environments

Supporting decision-making by companies in delivering their climate net-zero and nature recovery commitments: synthesizing current information and identifying research priorities in rainforest restoration

Many companies are making ambitious pledges to achieve positive impacts for climate and nature by financing restoration of carbon- and biodiversity- rich natural habitats. However, companies cannot make evidence-based choices that will deliver successful restoration if the scientific information required to guide investment has not been synthesised in a way that they can use, or there are knowledge gaps. To explore this issue, share information, and identify knowledge gaps and research priorities, we bring together researchers, a conservation NGO and a multinational consumer goods company (Unilever), focusing on Southeast Asian rainforests. These habitats offer significant restoration opportunities for carbon and biodiversity in areas that have been degraded by commercial logging and agriculture. We find that procedures for carbon restoration are much better developed than those for biodiversity, and that new research is urgently needed to deliver evidence-based biodiversity restoration. Companies need to be confident that their actions are fit-for-purpose to meet their environmental pledges. Achieving successful restoration outcomes will require co-designed projects with the potential to deliver positive co-benefits for carbon, biodiversity and local livelihoods